Former TS Dorian

[srainhoutx]

RECON has been tasked for tomorrow if need be.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 27 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-057

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 28/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0104A DORIAN
C. 28/1600Z
D. 19.9N 61.4W
E. 28/1630Z TO 28/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 29/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0204A DORIAN
C. 29/0230Z
D. 20.4N 65.0W
E. 29/0300Z TO 29/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
WHILE SYSTEM MAINTAINS ITS INTEGRITY.

[srainhoutx]

Do we call Bones yet?

Stick a fork in it. It's done....

[Belmer]

I agree. Looks like the NHC will pull the plug at 5pm and downgrade it to a remnant low or wave.
It is July afterall, don't see storms like these survive too often. Things will get going in August.. which is just a few days away.

[srainhoutx]

It appears the remnants of Dorian made a bit of a come back overnight and is now designated 91L. RECON is scheduled to investigate from St Croix later today as well.

[tireman4]

Yep Srain, 2 pm I think. Humm, I just wonder what they will find. Will Dr. McCoy have to reevaluate? That and much more later today.

[rnmm]

The plane has already taken off, should have more info on ex-Dorian real soon

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS
WINDS TO GALE FORCE...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER HAVE REDEVELOPED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION...BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD
TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY
AND MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 18:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 18:15Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 20.4N 62.2W
Location: 287 miles (462 km) to the ENE (61°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 310 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 100° at 30 knots (From the E at ~ 34.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 24°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1014 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 110° at 35 knots (From the ESE at ~ 40.2 mph)

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
350 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IN THE REMNANTS OF
DORIAN...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND CONSISTS OF A SHARP SURFACE
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE WELL NORTH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 20 MPH...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO THROUGH MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z HWRF suggest the remnants of Dorian may slowly strengthen as it nears Andros Island and pass through the Florida Straights just N of Cuba. The 12Z GFS Ensemble tracks suggest a somewhat similar solution that may bring a weak TD or TS Dorian into the SE Gulf of Mexico.

[Rip76]

Interesting.. (Sort of)

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING A SMALL BUT CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS GALE-FORCE WINDS...A FEW HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND MOVE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

00Z Tracks & Intensity:

[srainhoutx]

The 06Z HWRF avoids Andros Island passes through the Florida Straights S of Key West, turns NW near the Marquesas Keys and develops into a Hurricane in the SE Gulf.

[srainhoutx]

Deep convection has returned to 91L/remnants of Dorian N of Puerto Rico. RECON is scheduled to investigate from St. Croix later this morning.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT MON JUL 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF DORIAN...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO...CONFIRM THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE DISTURBANCE IS POORLY
ORGANIZED WITH THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURES WELL REMOVED FROM THE
MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND COULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE FOUND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

[srainhoutx]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 30 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-060

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
DORIAN CANCELED BY NHC AT 30/1610Z.

[wxman57]

There's nothing left of Dorian's remnants today. Storms over the eastern Bahamas are related to the upper low, not Dorian. I estimate that Dorian should be near 75W, about 250-300 miles west of those storms, but cannot any longer find any surface reflection of Dorian. Pressures in the region are quite high (1018mb-1020mb). The end...

[wxman57]

Clearly the NHC jumped the gun on this one. And I disagree it's Dorian's remnants, too. They had the wrong center on their morning advisory, as the center is a weak swirl of clouds way north of the convection. Should have waited for visible satellite to confirm it wasn't a TD. Time to downgrade it.

[TexasBreeze]

Clearly the NHC jumped the gun on this one. And I disagree it's Dorian's remnants, too. They had the wrong center on their morning advisory, as the center is a weak swirl of clouds way north of the convection. Should have waited for visible satellite to confirm it wasn't a TD. Time to downgrade it.

Most definately...