Fernand Dissipates In Mountains of Mexico

Sat Aug 24, 2013 10:10 am

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Sat Aug 24, 2013 10:54 am

RECON has been tasked to investigate the Bay of Campeche on Sunday:

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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 24 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-084 CORRECTION (TCPOD NUMBER)

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. BAY OF CAMPECHE
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 25/2000Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
       C. 25/1715Z
       D. 20.0N 95.5W
       E. 25/1900Z TO 26/0000Z
       F. SFC TO 5,000 FT
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARKS:  GLOBAL HAWK DROPWINDSONDE MISSION DEPARTING
       24/1100Z TO OPERATE IN AREA BOUNDED BY 10N-22N AND 26W-36W, 
       FL 550 TO 650. DURATION OF MISSION IS 26 HRS.

Sat Aug 24, 2013 1:09 pm

2:00 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC:

2. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO...BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM GETS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Sat Aug 24, 2013 3:58 pm

The 12Z GFS Ensembles tracks are fairly well clustered from Vercruz to just N of Tampico. That said is does appear the broad surface low is pulling a bit more NW over the State of Campeche and will enter the Bay of Campeche and get its 'feet wet' before the night is done. If that trend continues, it becomes a bit more likely we will see a tropical depression or possibly a weak tropical storm before making landfall along the Mexico Gulf Coast sometime late Monday into Tuesday. We will see.

Sat Aug 24, 2013 6:14 pm

The 18Z GFS suggests a moderate Tropical Storm making landfall near Tampico around noon on Monday. We will see.

The attachment 08242013 18Z GFS gfs_wnatl_048_850_vort_ht.gif is no longer available

The attachment 08242013 18Z GFS gfs_wnatl_048_500_vort_ht.gif is no longer available

Sat Aug 24, 2013 6:57 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. WHETHER TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OCCURS OR NOT...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

Sun Aug 25, 2013 11:02 am

RECON will investigate 95L in the Bay of Campeche later today and will likely find a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm. The most likely landfall location appears to be somewhere between Tuxpan and Tampico and may strengthen to a moderate tropical storm before making landfall by noon on Monday.

Sun Aug 25, 2013 12:09 pm

A second RECON mission to investigate the system in the Bay of Campeche has been tasked for tomorrow morning if necessary.

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NOUS42 KNHC 251658
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT SUN 25 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-085

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. BAY OF CAMPECHE
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
       A. 26/1500Z
       B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
       C. 26/1200Z
       D. 21.0N 97.0W
       E. 26/1430Z TO 26/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

Sun Aug 25, 2013 3:52 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

ANIMATION OF HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR
OBSERVATIONS FROM ALVARADO MEXICO...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA FROM
VERACRUZ AND CAOATZACOALCOS MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED
ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS DELAYED DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES...BUT IS NOW EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE TO GET A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY.
THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION AND STRENGTHENING TO A
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTERWARDS AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...OR SOONER.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE...270/10....IS ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL CAUSE A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED BUT IT IS STILL LIKELY THAT
THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 19.5N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 20.4N 97.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Sun Aug 25, 2013 4:04 pm

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Tropical depression quickly develops over the Bay of Campeche.

Visible satellite images along with observations from the Mexican Navy and Mexican oil rigs indicate the surface low that moved into the Bay of Campeche late Saturday evening has continued to intensify into a tropical cyclone. Mexican radar images and satellite images show a well defined circulation with deep thunderstorms near/over the center and defined banding. Conditions are favorable for continued intensification of the system to a tropical storm with warm sea surface temperatures and near excellent upper level conditions prior to landfall.

The depression is located south of a mid level high pressure ridge axis to its north and this will result in a WNW motion to landfall on the Mexican coast in the next 12 hours or so.

A delayed USAF mission is now in progress and it is very possible the plane will find a tropical storm.

TD 6 will result in little to no impacts on the state of TX as moisture is already increased from an approaching tropical wave axis. ENE to NE winds for the past 2 days has pushed coastal water levels to 1-2 feet above normal, but do not expect any additional increases.

Sun Aug 25, 2013 5:52 pm

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND...

AROUND 630 PM CDT...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAD INCREASED TO AT LEAST 45 MPH...
75 KM/H...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM FERNAND (PRONOUNCED
FAIR-NAHN).

A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 PM CDT...2300
UTC...TO INCREASE THE 12-HOUR INTENSITY TO 50 KT AND TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF 630 PM CDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 95.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Sun Aug 25, 2013 6:09 pm

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 23:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 22:31:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°06'N 95°43'W (19.1N 95.7167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 198 miles (319 km) to the WNW (293°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NNW (348°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 63° at 42kts (From the ENE at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NNW (348°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 491m (1,611ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 501m (1,644ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NNW (348°) from the flight level center at 22:24:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

Sun Aug 25, 2013 6:15 pm

Mon Aug 26, 2013 4:07 am

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
400 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR AND SURFACE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.
WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS FROM LA MANCHA BEACH...NOT FAR TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER...SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASS OF MEXICO.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.

WHILE IT WAS CROSSING THE COASTLINE...THE CENTER TURNED TO THE
RIGHT...AND IT PRACTICALLY PARALLELED THE COAST AFTER MOVING
INLAND. THIS MOTION MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SINCE THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FARTHER WEST LATER TODAY...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FERNAND. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A MAINLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...VERY HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 19.8N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 26/1800Z 20.4N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1800Z 21.5N 100.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Fernand Dissipates In Mountains of Mexico

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