September: Weekend Rain Chances. 1-2 Inches Possible C/N TX

[jasons2k]

Yeah, looks more like next week things may finally get interesting. So we'll have a window of about 2-3 weeks for tropical mischief before it's over.

[cperk]

Yeah, looks more like next week things may finally get interesting. So we'll have a window of about 2-3 weeks for tropical mischief before it's over.

Interesting for who Mexico,because that's where all the systems has gone so far.

[Texas Pirate]

ED - call off the GFS sniffin in 8-9 days I'm going on VACATION DUDE.....

File under: Don't hate me cuz my lawn got water today:
But it did! Nice tropical downpour with ponding on the roads there for a bit.....

[Texas Pirate]

Don't know where to place this but we're having Mock Emergency Preparation in the bay area this Saturday.
You can move it to where ever but I really don't want people to freak out around the bay area:

This is from the City of Nassau Bay Emergency Management Office:
First Responders from the city and surrounding area will participate in an exercise taking place on Saturday September 7, 2013 between the hours of 9a- noon. The exercise is being conducted in order to test and improve the community’s overall preparedness for an emergency event. The incident is not real; however the response activities during the full scale exercise will be practiced in a manner that is as realistic as possible. The area where the exercise will take place will be along Upper Bay Rd at Howard Ward Park. For your safety, and in order to complete the exercise in a realistic environment, you may experience traffic delays between the hours of 9a – 12p. We ask for your patience and support if the exercise causes any inconvenience.

[srainhoutx]

Seabreeze getting active...

[Texas Pirate]

ED - if you promise not to laugh I shall tell you where I'm going
Out of all the places I COULD GO for my birthday....I'm going to...
(drum roll)

Pittsburgh.

And I swear its not a punch line to a joke



I just cant worry about the bay area and enjoy learning to be a Yinzer.....
( I believe that's like being a Y'all....)

[Texas Pirate]

It'll be lucky to get a name (Humberto, which was an interesting storm in 2008), but it adds a nice splash of color to the Gulf.

I remember the last Humberto - a 1:00 a.m. su-prise! su-prise!

[Texas Pirate]

NO COC

UPDATED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO AND DID NOT FIND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND
TAMAULIPAS THROUGH FRIDAY

[srainhoutx]

Evening e-mail from Jeff:

Tropical wave over the south-central Gulf of Mexico has been declared 99L this afternoon.

US Air Force aircraft investigated the area of disturbed weather this afternoon and did find a broad low level circulation, but no well defined center. Additionally, since the time the aircraft left, deep convection has decreased and it would not appear that the system is becoming any better organized. While upper level conditions do appear favorable for intensification, the system will be nearing the Mexican coast over the next 24 hours and this should limit the overall development potential. With that said, systems under favorable upper level conditions in this part of the Gulf of Mexico can spin up into tropical storms fairly quickly and this is possible on Friday.

Tropical moisture will be moving into the TX coast on Friday and during the weekend with increased rain chances especially near the coast.

Over the next 5-15 days the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico will need to be watched closely for additional tropical developments as several model ensembles are suggesting some potential for more organized tropical activity.

 

[Ptarmigan]

It'll be lucky to get a name (Humberto, which was an interesting storm in 2008), but it adds a nice splash of color to the Gulf.

Humberto was in 2007.

[Ptarmigan]

Evening e-mail from Jeff:

Tropical wave over the south-central Gulf of Mexico has been declared 99L this afternoon.

US Air Force aircraft investigated the area of disturbed weather this afternoon and did find a broad low level circulation, but no well defined center. Additionally, since the time the aircraft left, deep convection has decreased and it would not appear that the system is becoming any better organized. While upper level conditions do appear favorable for intensification, the system will be nearing the Mexican coast over the next 24 hours and this should limit the overall development potential. With that said, systems under favorable upper level conditions in this part of the Gulf of Mexico can spin up into tropical storms fairly quickly and this is possible on Friday.

Tropical moisture will be moving into the TX coast on Friday and during the weekend with increased rain chances especially near the coast.

Over the next 5-15 days the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico will need to be watched closely for additional tropical developments as several model ensembles are suggesting some potential for more organized tropical activity.

 

It should be interesting. Let's hope for more rain.

[Kludge]

Humberto was in 2007.

Can you find a year in the North Atlantic where there were no hurricanes?

[srainhoutx]

Humberto was in 2007.

Can you find a year in the North Atlantic where there were no hurricanes?

I believe 1907 and 1914 had no reported Hurricanes, but that was well before the satellite era.

[Ptarmigan]

Humberto was in 2007.

Can you find a year in the North Atlantic where there were no hurricanes?

I believe 1907 and 1914 had no reported Hurricanes, but that was well before the satellite era.

The data should be considered dubious. I am pretty sure 1907 and 1914 had hurricanes, but likely in the middle of the ocean.

[Rip76]

Feeling "funnel cloud-ish" out there...

[kayci]

I've watched many water spouts form from my backyard as I'm close to TC dike. Bring some action!

[Rip76]

Feeling "funnel cloud-ish" out there...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 AM CDT FRI SEP 6 2013

TXZ214-237-238-061900-
CHAMBERS-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...
PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...ANGLETON...FREEPORT...
LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON
1018 AM CDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...WATER SPOUTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE TODAY...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL
AREAS FROM OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WATER SPOUTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE WATER SPOUTS AND
FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. SHOULD A FUNNEL CLOUD REACH THE
GROUND OR A WATER SPOUT MOVES INLAND ONE SHOULD SEEK SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE REPORT ANY WATER SPOUTS OR FUNNEL CLOUDS
REACHING THE GROUND TO THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

$$

And there you have it...

[kayci]

Am I seeing double? cookie cutter posts????

[Rip76]

Just put my sprinklers out...

[srainhoutx]

I had .15 inches of rain yesterday after the seabreeze passed. Not looking too good today up here in NW Harris County in the potential rainfall department, but I am somewhat optimistic that early next week another chance of a easterly wave/inverted trough may bring a bit more rain further inland and just perhaps a bit further N than TD 8 toward the South/Middle Texas Coast. We will see.