OCTOBER: Halloween Storm: Severe Storms/Flash Flood Threat?

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO
60 MPH IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...AND HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

First strong cold front of the fall season will arrive this weekend.

Moisture continues to stream northward across the area this morning with showers noted near the coast and offshore.

Expecting another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms today, but coverage should be lower than the previous days. Big news continues to be the arrival of a strong cold front Saturday evening and a tropical system over the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Upper air pattern will continue to transition into stronger amplification which will help to send a cold front into the state on Friday and blast off the coast Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Much drier and cooler air will onset post front on gusty NW winds by Saturday evening. Could have a decent line of showers and thunderstorms with the front and possibly some lingering activity into early Sunday as the upper trough axis hangs back to the west producing a period of lift over the frontal slope. Do not expect any severe weather.

Big difference will be noted in the temperatures as lows early next week possibly fall into the lower 50’s or a good 20 degrees colder than this morning and afternoon highs may not reach 80 on Sunday and Monday. Return of moisture and humidity does not look likely until the middle of next week.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 87.6W AT 03/1300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 87.6W AT 03/1300Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 86.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.4N 88.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.4N 88.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.0N 88.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.3N 88.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.0N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 34.5N 83.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 38.5N 77.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 87.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[txflagwaver]

Oops!

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/ho ... 837792.php

[unome]

Side note, I guess the dedicated tropical sub-forum is in disrepute, with all things tropical now in the main forum?

I was wondering about that also ? Anyway, keeping an aye on Karen as we have relatives over FL way

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#KAREN

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=al122013

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html


loop: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/op ... loope.html




loop: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/op ... wv/wv.html




audio briefings: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/ (latest available)

video briefings: http://www.imaphurricane.info/ (when available)

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Now on to the best part of the year... FALL AND WINTER!!!

[srainhoutx]

Side note, I guess the dedicated tropical sub-forum is in disrepute, with all things tropical now in the main forum?

I was wondering about that also ? Anyway, keeping an aye on Karen as we have relatives over FL way

I guess it sort of died like the 2013 tropical season predictions.

[Paul Robison]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

First strong cold front of the fall season will arrive this weekend.

Moisture continues to stream northward across the area this morning with showers noted near the coast and offshore.

Expecting another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms today, but coverage should be lower than the previous days. Big news continues to be the arrival of a strong cold front Saturday evening and a tropical system over the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Upper air pattern will continue to transition into stronger amplification which will help to send a cold front into the state on Friday and blast off the coast Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Much drier and cooler air will onset post front on gusty NW winds by Saturday evening. Could have a decent line of showers and thunderstorms with the front and possibly some lingering activity into early Sunday as the upper trough axis hangs back to the west producing a period of lift over the frontal slope. Do not expect any severe weather.


Do you expect strong thunderstorms with heavy downpours, Jeff?
Big difference will be noted in the temperatures as lows early next week possibly fall into the lower 50’s or a good 20 degrees colder than this morning and afternoon highs may not reach 80 on Sunday and Monday. Return of moisture and humidity does not look likely until the middle of next week.

[jasons2k]

Got another .20" today.

Only 3 days into October, & I've had 1.68". That is more rain than I had for the months of March, May, and June of this year. Amazing.

[txflagwaver]

Side note, I guess the dedicated tropical sub-forum is in disrepute, with all things tropical now in the main forum?

Well I guess since it is "Hurricane Central" nothing gets posted until the storm actually becomes a hurricane??

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff:

Tropical Storm moving toward the US Gulf coast.

Various watches and warnings are in effect for the US Gulf coast.

Discussion:
Karen is struggling in the face of dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico and 20-30kts of westerly wind shear. This is removing the thunderstorm activity away from the robust center of circulation and preventing intensification. Aircraft fixes this morning indicate the storm has moved a little more to the west more along the lines of the low level steering flow likely due to some weakening overnight.

Track:
Track guidance remains in good agreement on Karen turning northward and then a sharp NE turn as a digging trough over the southern plains drops into TX and swings a strong cold front off the TX coast. While the track reasoning is straight forward, how quickly Karen turns to the right or NE will make a big difference in where the center crosses the US coastline. Given the recent weakening trend and the exposed low level center, the northward motion may be delayed a few more hours allowing the center to near the southern Louisiana coast…possibly making landfall west of the mouth of the MS River, before making a hard right hand turn and a second landfall near the AL coast on Sunday. Any delay in this turn would bring the storm inland over SE LA.

Intensity:
As mentioned above Karen is fighting a large mass of dry air to its west and strong upper level winds shear. The system does have a well defined low level circulation and thunderstorms have been attempting to “blow up” near/over the center but quickly get displaced to the east. Some of the models suggest the shear relaxing as the system nears the US Gulf coast and Karen reaching hurricane intensity, although this is starting to become slightly more unlikely. With that said, residents from SE LA to the FL panhandle should be ready for strong TS or weak hurricane conditions.

Impacts:
Outer rainbands will be moving into the SE LA coast by evening along with increasing winds and seas. Given the organization of the system, most of the weather will be on the eastern side of the circulation or aimed at the extreme SE coast of LA into MS, AL, FL. The biggest threat will be heavy rainfall of 6-10 inches along and east of the track and possibly some wind gust to near 70mph near the coast. Storm surge flooding of 2-5 feet will be possible over SE LA and coastal MS and these levels could cause some problems in SE LA outside of hurricane defense systems.

[Andrew]

A little off topic, but things are slow so but Anchorage has an interesting discussion

[srainhoutx]

Who is ready for some cooler air? The front is making progress across the Lone Star State this morning and should clear the Coast late tonight. Tomorrow will be a much different day with breezy NW winds to near 25 mph and very comfortable temps in the mid 70's. Once the low clouds clear out and much drier air works in, temps should easily fall to the upper 40's to low/mid 50's across the area tomorrow night into Tuesday. It appears an active pattern may develop as the Fall westerly's kick in and fronts become a bit more active with a Pacific front next weekend and perhaps a stronger Canadian front in the longer range around the 20th of October, +/- a day or so. Who knows? We may see that first 'blue norther' of the season near Halloween.

[Katdaddy]

I know I am ready for some cooler temps. Feel like Summer with 91F and humid conditions. Temps currently in the mid to upper 50s across NTX.

[mckinne63]

Yes! I am ready for some fall like temps! Looking forward to putting on a long sleeve shirt again rather than tank tops.

[Kludge]

Since The Weather Channel (aka "the msnbc mcweather show") insists on naming winter storms, why don't we take it a step further, and name cold fronts?

Lets start with this one. Actually we had one several days ago...so that would've been the "A" front. So now we're at the "B" front.

Let's call it "Barry". Seems appropriate. It looked impressive, but when if finally gets here, it wimped out. Sigh.

[Paul Robison]

Who is ready for some cooler air? The front is making progress across the Lone Star State this morning and should clear the Coast late tonight. Tomorrow will be a much different day with breezy NW winds to near 25 mph and very comfortable temps in the mid 70's. Once the low clouds clear out and much drier air works in, temps should easily fall to the upper 40's to low/mid 50's across the area tomorrow night into Tuesday. It appears an active pattern may develop as the Fall westerly's kick in and fronts become a bit more active with a Pacific front next weekend and perhaps a stronger Canadian front in the longer range around the 20th of October, +/- a day or so. Who knows? We may see that first 'blue norther' of the season near Halloween.

25 mph, eh? How much does anyone want to be that NW winds will be gusting all the way to 40 mph, Sunday?

[Karen]

Where is the cold front and what time do you think it will make it through Houston

[srainhoutx]

Where is the cold front and what time do you think it will make it through Houston

Just passed DW Hooks in Tomball and now moving across IAH.

[Paul Robison]

Where is the cold front and what time do you think it will make it through Houston

Just passed DW Hooks in Tomball and now moving across IAH.

Any strong thunderstorms trailing it? If so, where are they headed?