OCTOBER: Halloween Storm: Severe Storms/Flash Flood Threat?

[ticka1]

thunder lightning and torrential downpours!!!! what a way to bw awaken on a sunday morning!!! is it colder behind the front?

[Houstonkid]

About .80" after the heavy line so far here in Katy and 61 degrees

[TexasBreeze]

Well it made it here! Been raining all morning and had a well defined bow echo move through. More needed benificial rain!

[tjelliot]

What has happened to all of our khou local/county radars?

[unome]

there are some power outages

http://gis.centerpointenergy.com/outage ... index.html

http://www.khou.com/news/local/More-tha ... 44301.html


nasty fire in Humble, also

http://www.click2houston.com/news/firef ... index.html

[Paul Robison]

Not sure whether or not I should feel better even though I saw this:




Now, seriously, people: Who out there expects the damage from the Halloween storms to be even worse than today's? Is this front analagous to the massive storm that is currently threatening the U.K? Look:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk ... us-2645894
http://www.click2houston.com/news/Brita ... index.html

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Significant storm system will bring severe weather and heavy rainfall to the southern plains by the middle of the week.

Robust short wave on Sunday morning brought a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to the region and widespread soaking rainfall. Wind damage from two bow echoes affected southern Montgomery into NE Harris and Liberty Counties with the second affecting Waller into western Harris into northern Galveston County.

This short wave has moved eastward with a low level boundary having pushed offshore yesterday afternoon. Water vapor images show the next important weather makers dropping southward through the western US and will drop into the SW US today and then begin to track eastward. This will result in increasing SE winds and onshore flow from midday morning today through mid week. Low level moisture will increase as the Gulf opens up. Position of the trough over the SW US will help guide mid and high level moisture from Hurricane Raymond toward the state by mid week. Large storm system will eject into the high plains on Wednesday with its cold front pushing southward across TX Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture values continue to deepen and peak in the 2.0-2.3 inch of PW range by early Thursday morning. Strongest wind energy and dynamics appear aimed at N TX and northward, but there will be some decent wind energy over our area with a strong low level jet of 30-40kts just off the surface by Thursday morning.

Appears the warm sector may be capped on Wednesday, but with moisture increasing to summer levels and upper air disturbances ejecting across in the SW flow aloft, think rain chances will begin to increase after lunch on Wednesday. Main dynamics and slow moving frontal boundary arrive into the area on Thursday. Suspect a well organized line of thunderstorms over N and C TX Thursday morning will sweep ESE/SE into the area during the day on Thursday. Some severe weather and very heavy rainfall looks possible. Think the heavy rainfall threat is greater than the severe threat at this time given the saturated moisture profiles and potential for a slowing frontal boundary and cell training along this boundary. Front should be near the coast or offshore by late afternoon, but rain may linger in the post frontal air mass for a period of time into the evening hours. Current timing of weather could be a little on the slow side should a well defined complex of storms develop which would help speed things up a bit.

Drier air should finally filter in by Friday morning clearing skies and ending rain chances.

[djmike]

What happened with all the talk about a blue northern? Has that gone out the window? Is the front right after halloween, was that "supposed" to be the blue northern?

[redneckweather]

Yes Mike, this is the one that was supposed to be the blue norther, which it won't be. Just forecasters hyping up what models were showing well over a week ago. You figured they would of learned by now.

[Andrew]

Yes Mike, this is the one that was supposed to be the blue norther, which it won't be. Just forecasters hyping up what models were showing well over a week ago. You figured they would of learned by now.

I don't think anyone was hyping anything up. I feel like it is forgotten sometimes what this forum (and most forums of this nature) is about. This forum is a place for individuals to gather around and discuss weather in both the general and technical sense. It is a place to learn, forecast, and have fun at the same time. This site is not a place of paid forecasts that generate forecasts for your well being. There are many other places (NWS, NHC, HPC) that are paid to make these forecasts and if you notice, they don't forecast 2-3 weeks in advance for that specific reason. What this site does do is allow people to look into not only the short range but the longer range forecasts. I don't think there was a single person who said with certainty that there was going to be a "blue norther". There were individuals who speculated on this possibility from the synoptic patterns that were presented, and made educated forecasts because of this. Longer range models did a fantastic job at forecasting the magnitude of this trough so far out and I feel like a lot of people picked up on this. Yes the degree of cold air advection is less than originally forecasted, but the central plains severe weather and degree of cold air that will make it south will still be nice for late October. So I don't think it is right to call anyone out on a site that is specifically focused on the forecasts and possibilities that other sites can't make due to the uncertainty that exists. Of course that is just my two cents.

[wxman57]

FYI, I had absolutely nothing to do with killing this week's cold air intrusion. In fact, I needed the front to provide a "cold day" for our October forecast contest. But I am enjoying the warm air...

[srainhoutx]

Regarding the 'blue norther' chatter...it was speculation by everyone I have seen and I know I tend to preface any comments or speculations with "We Will See". The long range guidance did pick up on a synoptic pattern change where the Western US was plagued with high temps and dry conditions to that of a deep Western trough and a severe weather threat that actually looks like it has some real potential. While we just didn't have the cold air in Canada to work with due to all the Pacific typhoons transitioning to extra tropical and creating above normal temps in our source Region in Eastern Alaska and Western Canada, the pattern has transitioned to that of a Western trough and somewhat active pattern as the MJO translates E into the Atlantic Basin and cold air intrusions appear to be gaining some steam as we head into the month of November. I know that wxman57's long range winter weather forecaster is suggesting some below normal temps and an active storm track down the spine of the Rockies into Texas where deeper troughs may offer some threats of wintry mischief as we head toward the winter season. Meanwhile our attention is focused on the severe weather threat mainly to our north and any additional EPAC tropical moisture from Raymond increasing the threat of heavy rainfall as a slow moving frontal boundary tracks SE across the Lone Star State Wednesday into Thursday.

[Paul Robison]

Actually, why people would whine about temps in the 70s and 80 escapes me. Not to hot, not to cold. Stayed like this until May, no complaints from me. It has already snowed at elevation in New York, if you want to be uncomfortable and cold.

12Z GFS drops 1.5 to 2 inches of happy new rain with Halloween system.

In excess of four inches Dallas area, and I am liking the cut of the GFS gib as far as some FUN-derstorm potential for DFW area Wednesday afternoon/evening. Somewhat limited CAPE w/ weak lapse rates, but 300 to 600 J/Kg helicities and cloud bases around 950 mb, not big mondo EF-4 or EF-5 Oklahoma death storms Paul Robison thinks about, but I can imagine more than a few spinners,

For that matter, the 2.3 inch PW is what catches the eye, but Thursday morning there could be just enough helicity for even a brief HOU are morning commute spin up. And I can see that 1.5 to 2 inches being conservative, based on August like precipitable waters.

I really shouldn't be feeding Paul Robison, he'll be questioning God and believing Barack Obama will tour Houston in Marine Corps One with Governor Perry to view the damage, when I'm talking about heavy rain, a slow commute, and a brief weak twister or two, but if it makes him happy.

Dear Ed Mahmoud:

Didn't you or anyone else pay attention to the hyperlinks I posted about the damaging megastorm that just hit Great Britian!? That's what I think HGX is looking for, y'all. I don't think there'll be twisters, but I would look for storms that pack winds in excess of 60 MPH! Accu-weather even says to expect downed trees and power lines when this squall line moves through!

[redneckweather]

Andrew, get real bro. I didn't call anyone out on this site. My statement was based off of NWS forecast discussions last week from a few offices across Texas, not aimed at anyone here. Looks like you looked into that WAY too much.

[Paul Robison]

Accuweather says:


Massive Halloween Storm: Texas to Midwest, Northeast



By Andy Mussoline, Meteorologist

October 28, 2013; 9:45 PM

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.
A massive Halloween storm will unleash torrential rain, heavy thunderstorms and howling winds in a corridor from Texas to the Midwest and Northeast. The storm may force travelers and trick-or-treaters to delay or cancel their plans.

Heavy Thunderstorms and Flooding

Gusty, slow-moving thunderstorms will threaten areas from St. Louis to Memphis, Tenn., to Little Rock, Ark., and Houston late Thursday morning and into the afternoon. Locally damaging winds could bring down trees and power lines, and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Upon encountering downed power lines, do not go near them or attempt to lift any downed tree limbs from them. Instead, think of all power lines as live and dangerous.

By Thursday night, any gusty thunderstorms should be in a corridor from Atlanta to Mobile, Ala., and New Orleans.
IMPORTANT: On Halloween, we could see the largest number of power outages in this area since Hurricane Ike!


CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW?

[TexasBreeze]

I hope someone is trolling, because if they are for real, yowza!

It sure does seem like it...

[Paul Robison]

A question everyone can answer:
NOAA vs. Accuweather. Who is more trustworthy?

[Texas Pirate]

Hope everyone stays safe with this incoming weather.
Of course it HAS to rain on Halloween leaving me with a pile of candy....LOL
Oh dear what to do with all those kit kats and reese's peanut butter cups?

[Paul Robison]

Accuweather says:


Massive Halloween Storm: Texas to Midwest, Northeast



By Andy Mussoline, Meteorologist

October 28, 2013; 9:45 PM

More Sharing ServicesShare| Share on facebookShare on twitter Share on linkedin


.
A massive Halloween storm will unleash torrential rain, heavy thunderstorms and howling winds in a corridor from Texas to the Midwest and Northeast. The storm may force travelers and trick-or-treaters to delay or cancel their plans.

Heavy Thunderstorms and Flooding

Gusty, slow-moving thunderstorms will threaten areas from St. Louis to Memphis, Tenn., to Little Rock, Ark., and Houston late Thursday morning and into the afternoon. Locally damaging winds could bring down trees and power lines, and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Upon encountering downed power lines, do not go near them or attempt to lift any downed tree limbs from them. Instead, think of all power lines as live and dangerous.

By Thursday night, any gusty thunderstorms should be in a corridor from Atlanta to Mobile, Ala., and New Orleans.
IMPORTANT: On Halloween, we could see the largest number of power outages in this area since Hurricane Ike!


CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW?

Hope you read what I wrote, Texas Pirate. This could be the worst weather event to hit our city since Hurricane Ike, and you're worried about peanut butter cups?

[Texas Pirate]

Paul - I did read it and shook my head.

IF it were THAT BAD I'd raise the pirate flag.
It's a heavy rain maker NOT Hurricane Ike
Please don't bring drama where there is NO STAGE....

Thanks - happy Haunting.