OCTOBER: Halloween Storm: Severe Storms/Flash Flood Threat?

[Paul Robison]

Rain chances continue to look good for us in south central Texas. Periods of showers/storms will occur for the next 3-4 days until a mid-week frontal passage. If the crazy Canadian is right, we could be looking at a Rosa Redux along the southern half of the I-35 corridor. The Canadian develops a tropical system in the Pacific and ultimately moves it into Central Texas about the same time the front is supposed to move through during the Wed-Thur timeframe. Could get real interesting!

Not really. Canadian model develops ANYTHING and sends it to Texas.

[djmike]

Just picked up a quick 1" here in Beaumont! Nice!

[djjordan]

Heads up in the Austin area ..... NWS issues Flash Flood Warning until 2AM

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
TRAVIS COUNTY...
CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* AT 1145 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES..ESPECIALLY
ALONG HIGHWAY 35 FROM SUNSET VALLEY NORTHWARD TO WEST OF GRANGER.
RADAR ESTIMATES AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR SO.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ANDERSON
MILL...AUSTIN...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...GEORGETOWN...GRANGER...
PFLUGERVILLE...ROUND ROCK...TANGLEWOOD FOREST...TAYLOR...
WINDEMERE...BARTLETT...GRANGER DAM...HUTTO...MANOR...MANSFIELD
DAM...ONION CREEK...ROLLINGWOOD...WEIR AND WEST LAKE HILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

[djjordan]

Austin continues to be pounded by a very heavy thunderstorm that keeps back building and training. This is a tweet from the NWS in San Antonio/Austin just a few minutes ago.

LCRA gauge at Barton Creek and 360 in Austin shows nearly 5" of rain past 3 hours. Flash Flooding ongoing. Stay off the roads.

LCRA gauge in Pflugerville reporting 5.66" of rain so far and still coming down in buckets.

At 1:09 AM

At 109 am...LCRA Barton creek gauge is over 6" of rain. Rescue calls coming in from Austin. If your out, stay where you are. #txwx

[djjordan]

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1238 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

TXC453-491-130700-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-131013T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRAVIS TX-WILLIAMSON TX-
1238 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
CENTRAL WILLIAMSON AND TRAVIS COUNTIES...

AT 1228 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER TRAVIS COUNTY
INCLUDING AUSTIN. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

RAINFALL RATES WERE ESTIMATED AT 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR. LCRA RAIN
GAUGES ACROSS TRAVIS COUNTY HAVE RECORDED 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN HAS CAUSED A RISE
ON WILLIAMSON CREEK AT OAK HILL. SOME LOW WATER CROSSINGS HAVE ALSO
BEEN CLOSED WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 290.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE WINDEMERE...WEST LAKE HILLS...
ROLLINGWOOD...PFLUGERVILLE...MANSFIELD DAM...MANOR...AUSTIN...WEIR...
TAYLOR...ROUND ROCK...HUTTO...GRANGER DAM...GRANGER...GEORGETOWN...
BARTLETT AND ANDERSON MILL.

From NWS San Antonio/Austin

Via Twitter

At 115 am...Barton Creek at 360 has risen nearly 10 ft in the past 2 hours. Very important to stay off the roads. Too dangerous. #txwx

[djjordan]

Flash Flood Warning reissued for Travis and Williamson Counties ..... until 3AM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
148 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
TRAVIS COUNTY...
CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

* AT 143 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RUNOFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS IS RESULTING IN
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THE RUNOFF HAS RESULTED
IN FLOODING ALONG WILLIAMSON...BARTON AND SHOAL CREEKS. LOW
WATER CROSSINGS ARE ALSO CLOSED SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN AUSTIN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ANDERSON
MILL...AUSTIN...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...CEDAR PARK...
PFLUGERVILLE...ROUND ROCK...TANGLEWOOD FOREST...WINDEMERE...BEE
CAVE...LAGO VISTA...LAKEWAY...LEANDER...MANOR...MANSFIELD DAM...
ONION CREEK...ROLLINGWOOD AND WEST LAKE HILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

Twitter from ATCEMS

UPDATE2: 3000 Bee Caves Rd; SF preparing to insert rescuer via hoist for victim extraction. MTF.


From Andrew Chung at KVUE Twitter

In Austin, low water crossings are closed at 2573 Hoeke, 5400 Jimmy Clay, 5003 Wasson, 10131 David Moore, 6334 Joe Tanner, and Old Bee Caves
\
***NWS EWX issues Flood Advisory for Travis and Williamson Counties until 5AM***


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
306 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

TXC453-491-131000-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0106.131013T0806Z-131013T1000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-
306 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN TRAVIS COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 500 AM CDT

* AT 303 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. MOVEMENT IS NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...ANDERSON MILL...CEDAR PARK...BEE CAVE...LAGO VISTA...
LAKEWAY...LEANDER...LIBERTY HILL AND MANSFIELD DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

[djjordan]

A little closer to home in our CWA ...... HGX issues Flood Advisory

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
145 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

TXC041-313-130845-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0082.131013T0645Z-131013T0845Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZOS TX-MADISON TX-
145 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 AM CDT

* AT 143 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
MADISON AND NORTHERN BRAZOS COUNTIES BY 3 AM. HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRED EARLIER LAST NIGHT AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. STAY ALERT FOR HIGH WATER IF DRIVING OVERNIGHT.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
NORTHWESTERN COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...MADISONVILLE...KURTEN...
WIXON VALLEY...MIDWAY...KYLE FIELD AND NORTH ZULCH.

[djjordan]

Flash Flood Warning issued for Madison County ........

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
241 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 AM CDT

* AT 240 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN THE LAST 90 MINUTES. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

Spotter report via Twitter of 50MPH Winds WSW of College Station attm.

Wind (50mph) [E]<-Spotr 1 miles WSW of COLLEGE STATION, TX-There is no damage but wind driven rain is gusting at times over 50..

Spotter Report Via Twitter ..... Possible Warning may be needed shortly

Wind (60mph) [E]<-Spotr 1 miles WSW of COLLEGE STATION, TX-Wind gust between 60-70 mph saw flying lawn furniture along with ot..

[djjordan]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

TXZ196-198-130830-
BRAZOS-GRIMES-
250 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BRAZOS AND GRIMES COUNTIES...

AT 248 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLLEGE STATION...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BEDIAS...WIXON VALLEY...KYLE FIELD...
IOLA...ROANS PRAIRIE...AND CARLOS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. TURN AROUND AND DON/T DROWN! DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

[djjordan]

*** Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for Brazos and Grimes County ***


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
258 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 330 AM CDT

* AT 258 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR COLLEGE STATION...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. PENNY
SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...EASTERN BRYAN...MILLICAN...KYLE FIELD...
CARLOS...AND WELLBORN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

[djjordan]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

TXC041-185-131015-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0083.131013T0824Z-131013T1015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRIMES TX-BRAZOS TX-
324 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 AM CDT

* AT 322 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. COLLEGE
STATION HAS RECEIVED 2.54 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 75 MINUTES.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL GRIMES COUNTY AND THAT AREA
CAN EXPECT BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
SOUTHERN COLLEGE STATION...NAVASOTA...MILLICAN...ANDERSON...ROANS
PRAIRIE...RICHARDS...CARLOS AND WELLBORN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS FARM AND COUNTRY ROADS. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

[djjordan]

*** New Flash Flood Warning issued for Travis and Hays County for ongoing heavy rainfall and runoff ***

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
347 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HAYS COUNTY...
WESTERN TRAVIS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT.

* AT 344 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 4
INCHES AN HOUR OVER WESTERN TRAVIS COUNTY...IN AND AROUND LAKEWAY.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
DRIPPING SPRINGS...BEE CAVE...LAGO VISTA...LAKEWAY AND MANSFIELD
DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

[djjordan]

Looks like a very wet pattern setting up for Central Texas. EWX issues Flash Flood Watch for today until 7PM and hints at another heavy rainfall event shaping up for Tuesday into Wednesday. Will have to keep monitoring this situation.

Locally looks like a wet day ahead for SE Texas as well as we have storms knocking on our doorstep and plenty of moisture and lift to work with. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding is very possible today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING NORTH AND APPROACHING THE RIO
GRANDE. PLUMES OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO ARE
SPREADING OVER TEXAS WITH A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS AND PWS OF 1.7
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 90 THROUGH 7 PM.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH AND MOISTURE LEVELS SLIGHTLY
DECREASE RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY MONDAY. EXCEPT...ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU WHERE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT
RESULTING IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MAY REQUIRE THE WATCH TO BE EXTENDED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A BIT COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS DROPS A COLD FRONT SOUTH
WITH A SLOW PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS FROM THE REMNANTS OF
CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E AND ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE FRONTAL
ZONE WITH PWS OF 1.9 TO 2.2 INCHES. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINS DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRONT AND STEERING FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT RESULTING IN TRAINING OF RAINS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS UNTIL THEN TO SATURATE THE SOILS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NO RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THEN SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN DEVELOP AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK
TURN BELOW AVERAGE MID TO LATE WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD
ADVECTION.

Morning Area Forecast Discussion from NWS Houston/Galveston

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
508 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE NW PART OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS
FIRST CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL PROPAGATE E-SE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MESO SCALE INFLUENCES WILL DOMINATE
WHEN AND WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY. AT 4 AM...A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
NEAR DEL RIO WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING N-NE ACROSS TEXAS. OVER
SE TX...A PLETHORA OF BOUNDARIES EXIST WITH ONE NEAR THE COAST...
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NW ZONES AND ANOTHER EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA INTO SE TX. 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE ORIENTED
FROM NE TEXAS TOWARD CENTRAL TX. THE MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE ORIENTED
AROUND A 700 MB RIDGE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH SHOWS UP
NICELY ON SATELLITE IS APPROACHING SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TODAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS
SHOW PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN
84-86 DEGREES TODAY. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT PORTENDS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

ON MONDAY...PWATS FALL TO 1.7 INCHES BUT THESE VALUES ARE STILL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS SO WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S
FEEL POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED. PWATS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUES AFTN
BUT 850 MB STILL LOOKS VERY DRY. BEST MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW
ZONES AND BUMPED POPS UP A BIT OVER THE NW AND TAPERED LOWER
TOWARD THE COAST. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED SOUNDINGS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE NORTH AND
HIGH END CHANCE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS SE TX ON
WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END WEDS NITE. DRIER CONDS
EXPECTED THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT WITH RAIN CHANCES AT
THE END OF THE WEEK AND DECIDED TO BROAD BRUSH 20/30 POPS FRI-SUN UNTIL
A BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IS REACHED.

[djjordan]

Unfortunately heavy rainfall moving back into the Austin Metro and surrounding areas. Stay safe and don't drive through high water.

*** Flash Flood Warning Central Travis and Central Hays County ***

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
431 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY...
CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT.

* AT 427 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY AND CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY.
RAINFALL RATES WERE ESTIMATED AT 1 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR. THESE
AREAS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RUNOFF QUICKLY.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...TANGLEWOOD FOREST...ROLLINGWOOD AND WEST LAKE HILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

[djjordan]

*** Flash Flood Warning reissued for Madison County ****

Parts of the county have received six inches of rainfall since yesterday and last night.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
445 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 AM CDT

* AT 442 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MADISONVILLE...MIDWAY AND NORTH ZULCH.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES
WILL FALL OVER THE WARNING AREA AND THIS WILL ADD TO THE FLOODING
ISSUES IN THE COUNTY. PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON
COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED OVER SIX INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

[djjordan]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
527 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

TXC015-201-473-477-131230-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0084.131013T1027Z-131013T1230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WASHINGTON TX-AUSTIN TX-HARRIS TX-WALLER TX-
527 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

* AT 525 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAINFALL OF BETWEEN
1 AND 3 INCHES PER HOUR DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
BRENHAM...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...HOCKLEY...WALLER...PINE
ISLAND...AND MONAVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
555 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 554 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...PINE ISLAND AND MONAVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

Portastorm is reporting 11 inches of rain overnight and still pouring. Worrisome to see multiple boundaries across the Region and low convective temps. I'm also worried that the Tuesday - Thursday time frame will bring additional flooding chances as EPAC TD15E turns NE and merges with a creeping frontal boundary across Central and SE Texas. Stay safe out there!

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Slow moving boundary producing tremendous rainfall west of I-45 to I-35.

The combination of a short wave moving out of MX and a slow moving outflow boundary has resulted in an excessive rainfall event overnight and continuing into this morning from west of Houston to Austin/San Antonio. Rainfall amounts have averaged 1-3 inches across much of the western portions of SE TX and central TX. A CoCoRaHS observer south of Austin recorded 11.33 inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours.

Currently very heavy rainfall extends from near Sealy west along I-10 to north of San Antonio. Since 400am rainfall amounts of 5.0-6.5 inches have fallen over Waller and Austin Counties resulting in flash flooding. Storms continue to fire along the very slow moving outflow boundary in a very moist air mass with PWs over 2.0 inches. Low level inflow off the Gulf is perpendicular to the boundary leading to good lift and continued maintaining of the heavy rainfall. Over the past few hours, the radar trends have been for gradual weakening and lower rainfall rates, but surface heating over the next few hours could help generate stronger slow moving storms along the leading edge of the boundary. Extremely slow storm motions of less than 5mph and high hourly rainfall rates will result in the potential for some quick excessive rainfall totals.

Meso models have not done a good job forecasting the current activity and are likely not handling to forecast today well. It is hard to determine where or if additional storms will develop on this boundary, but one would expect with heating that storms will develop in the un-tapped air mass south of I-10.

Should see the heavy rainfall axis shift WNW Monday into Tuesday as Gulf high pressure briefly builds into the area. This will focus the heavy rainfall across WC into N TX.

A cold front will move southward slowly across the state Tuesday night-Wednesday at the same time moisture from TD-15E off the Mexican coast is pulled NE along the frontal slope. Expect another round of very heavy slow moving rainfall with this boundary by the middle of the week. This setup will need to be watched as it appears to be a common mid October excessive rainfall pattern.

[srainhoutx]

HGX reports that HYW 90 at HWY 36 is Sealy are flooded and impassable. Many roads in Austin County are flooded.