OCTOBER: Halloween Storm: Severe Storms/Flash Flood Threat?

[djmike]

Haha...with the way things are looking with Karen, how much you wanna bet we have stronger northerly wind gusts from the front than what Karens spinning up!! Lol

[Paul Robison]

Haha...with the way things are looking with Karen, how much you wanna bet we have stronger northerly wind gusts from the front than what Karens spinning up!! Lol

Please say you're not serious! Stronger northerly wind gusts (30-40) could mean downed trees and (widespread?) power outages!

[TexasBreeze]

Haha...with the way things are looking with Karen, how much you wanna bet we have stronger northerly wind gusts from the front than what Karens spinning up!! Lol

Yep that's the truth! That system never had a chance with strong shear/ dry air. It doesn't seem to want to make landfall either...

[txflagwaver]

Cooler breezes are here! Will enjoy being able to open the windows and turn off the A/C!

[Paul Robison]

Cooler breezes are here! Will enjoy being able to open the windows and turn off the A/C!

Don't celebrate just yet. Doppler radar detected a NE/SW line of thundestorms moving in the general direction of San Antonio. The line is moving E while the individual cells are moving NE. If this hangs together by the time it gets to SE TX folks, we're in for a pretty rough night!

[srainhoutx]

Clouds are breaking up and a very comfortable 56 F in NW Harris County. The rain was also a welcomed surprise and will help wash down all that mess that has been giving many of us fits with allergies.

[mckinne63]

Wow! What a difference a day makes. Loving the temps. Waiting for the rain to stop so I can open the windows. I love fall! Yes, rain was a pleasant surprise. I didn't think it was suppose to rain.

[txflagwaver]

Just a few sprinkles here but the breeze and temps are great!

My son was driving in on I10 about 8am and took this pic.

[sambucol]

Weather is great! I'm hoping the for the fronts to keep rolling down here, and we have a real cold winter. And snow here, too!

[djjordan]

Me too!!!! Very much enjoying this.

[srainhoutx]

The guidance continues to advertise a rather potent Pacific cold core system dropping rather far S into California and the Desert SW later this week. Our weather will tend to modify as the high pressure moves over head today into tomorrow and the Gulf opens back up and an onshore flow develops once again. While there are some indications that capping may be an issue keeping any severe weather further N across the Plains this coming weekend, it does appear our next rain chance will increase late Saturday into Sunday as a Pacific front moves across the Lone Star State. In the longer range, it does appear a much stronger system will approach from the W as the tropical activity in the WPAC pushes E across the Pacific Ocean and a powerful jet impacts the Western half of the US and develops a strong low pressure system and attending cold front that may bring down some much colder air into the Plains and into Texas beyond the mid October time frame.

[srainhoutx]

That drought update will likely look a bit better with the next update. The reliable guidance continues to advertise a Pacific front will enter the Lone Star State and stall. That should focus increasing rain chances Sunday into next Monday. The fly in the ointment with next week continues to be that WPAC jet/moisture and a potential EPAC tropical storm making a possible landfall near Cabo on the Baja Peninsula bringing additional deep tropical moisture across Mexico into Texas.

[srainhoutx]

The guidance continues to advertise a rather complex and complicated pattern unfolding later this week across the Western 2/3rds of the North America. A potent cold core upper low and a deep trough will drop S into Southern California and the Desert SW and slowly eject across the Rockies into the Plains. A Pacific front will approach Texas and pull up stationary across Central Texas as a short wave/low pressure disturbance drops S toward the base of the Western trough. Add to the mix a developing EPAC tropical system that appears to be pulled N toward the Baja Peninsula and then turn NE spreading abundant tropical moisture across Mexico and Texas. Such patterns in past events have led to potential heavy rainfall events in October across Texas and tend to raise an eyebrow. It will be interesting to see if such a pattern continues to develop as the guidance is suggesting. As we near the weekend time frame rain chances do increase and may well continue into mid next week before a much stronger front clears the Region associated with the remnants of the WPAC typhoons and a powerful Pacific jet pushes E.

[Ptarmigan]

The guidance continues to advertise a rather complex and complicated pattern unfolding later this week across the Western 2/3rds of the North America. A potent cold core upper low and a deep trough will drop S into Southern California and the Desert SW and slowly eject across the Rockies into the Plains. A Pacific front will approach Texas and pull up stationary across Central Texas as a short wave/low pressure disturbance drops S toward the base of the Western trough. Add to the mix a developing EPAC tropical system that appears to be pulled N toward the Baja Peninsula and then turn NE spreading abundant tropical moisture across Mexico and Texas. Such patterns in past events have led to potential heavy rainfall events in October across Texas and tend to raise an eyebrow. It will be interesting to see if such a pattern continues to develop as the guidance is suggesting. As we near the weekend time frame rain chances do increase and may well continue into mid next week before a much stronger front clears the Region associated with the remnants of the WPAC typhoons and a power Pacific jet pushes E.

This could be an interesting weekend. I wonder how one can tell the difference between warm core and cold core upper level low.

[Portastorm]

Yes indeed, both the Euro and GFS continue to advertise a potentially wet period for much of Texas this weekend into next week. Sure hoping it verifies. We had a very sobering article in the Austin paper this weekend about the drought and some dire predictions about the near future if the drought continues.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a very wet and stormy pattern for portions of the Southern Plains and locations E into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Locations in Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Northern Louisiana may see rainfall totals exceeding 3-5 inches with higher isolated totals where training storms may develop. The European suite is suggesting a potential multi day significant heavy rainfall event beginning Saturday and extending into mid next week as a complex pattern develops with a deep Western trough, a potent shortwave disturbance and 94E currently developing offshore of Acapulco moves NW and turns ENE across the Baja Peninsula and spreads deep tropical moisture across the Region where PW's above 2 inches will be in place across Texas ahead of the advancing trough. Such EPAC systems combined with the above mentioned trough/shortwave pattern in October have led to significant rainfall events in past years and will need to be monitored closely the next several days.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Weather does not get much better than this in Texas.

Low humidity and mild temperatures continue over the region after the Sunday cold frontal passage. Surface high pressure will be pushing eastward today and a gradual onshore flow and increasing humidity will commence. It should be noted that the lows this week in the 50’s have been the coolest since May!

Changes are on the horizon as Gulf moisture begins to return to the region on Friday and in earnest over the weekend. This moisture return is ahead of a slow moving frontal boundary that will reach N TX on Saturday and likely stall somewhere over the state. To complicate things even further an eastern Pacific tropical system currently off the Mexican coast looks to develop and move NW toward southern Baja this weekend spilling mid and upper level moisture into TX from the southwest. Some models even have this system becoming captured by the trough and being ejected into TX late in the weekend ahead/along the frontal boundary. That would be a fairly classic fall heavy rain setup for some part of TX if it were to verify.

For now will keep rain chances in the 30-40% range over the weekend as Gulf of Mexico sub-tropical high pressure may keep the main bulk of the activity confined to central and N TX. Rain chances will greatly increase at some point late in the weekend into early next week as the slow moving front and potential EPAC tropical system move closer to the area.

[wxman57]

Gradual warm-up through early next week. Next front arrives next Tuesday night. Perhaps a few showers/storms ahead of it Tuesday afternoon. No Gulf tropical threat for the next week or two.

[Kludge]

Gradual warm-up through early next week. Next front arrives next Tuesday night. Perhaps a few showers/storms ahead of it Tuesday afternoon. No Gulf tropical threat for the next week or two.

Maybe not from the Gulf of Mexico... but the Gulf of California looks promising.

[texoz]

I know a lot of people going to ACL Fest in Austin this weekend are curious about the chances & timing of this rain event.

Is the tropical system in the Pacific the main variable?