NOVEMBER: Warming Up To End The Month

[Paul Robison]

How do MUCAPE and SHEAR values look for the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday time frame? Anybody have any data they'd like to share with me about that?

[srainhoutx]

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
459 AM EST MON NOV 04 2013


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 04/1200 UTC THRU NOV 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR BEING FUNNELED INTO THE REGION ON A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING DAY 3. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP AND EVOLUTION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH...BUT THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET
AND 21Z SREF MEAN WAS USED TO TRY TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND THE FORECAST QPF SUPPORTS THE
ASSIGNMENT OF A SLIGHT RISK AREA TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY ON DAY 3.

ON DAY 2...A SHORT WAVE CROSSING FROM UT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PUSH A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TX.
INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED VIA DIVERGENCE IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 110 KNOT JET STREAK CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN TX
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...TRANSPORTING PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES (WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH VEERING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN.

THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A DEVELOPING LINE OF
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHEAST
KS. THERE WAS SOME MODEL SPREAD ON THE PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WITH
RESPECT TO THE QPF AXIS...AND THE FORECAST MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES
THE 00Z ECMWF IN THOSE RESPECTS. A LARGE AREA OF 0.75 TO 1.50
INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED ACROSS NORTHEAST TX...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS. THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS...SO FOR NOW NO EXCESSIVE AREA WAS ASSIGNED.

SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION SHOULD
KEEP THE FLOW SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE ON DAY 3. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ALIGNED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SOUTHERN
PART. A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TX
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUMP HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING BETWEEN TWO
AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL). AGAIN...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN A VEERING LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.

A LARGE AREA OF 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST MI INTO SOUTHEAST TX. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE LESS
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE NORTHERN PART...LEADING TO A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
AND MID MS VALLEY. IN THESE AREAS...QPF VALUES SHOULD AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.25 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
EASTERN TX. WHILE THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY BELOW THE THREE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS...THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
COULD SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES... LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING. WITH THIS IN MIND...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
ASSIGNED FOR THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREA FOR DAY 3.

[Paul Robison]

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CST MON NOV 04 2013

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX...

LAGGING PIECE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY ENCOURAGING SFC PRESSURES TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
DRIVING A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD. VERY MOIST
AIR MASS...BUT WEAKLY BUOYANT WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...WILL PROVE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SUGGEST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE MAY PROVIDE ADEQUATE BUOYANCY FOR UPDRAFTS TO PENETRATE
LEVELS NECESSARY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LIGHTNING WITHIN THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL/SOUTH TX.
FARTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE NOTED
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN
TOO SHALLOW TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR LIGHTNING NORTH OF
I-20.

..DARROW.. 11/04/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0513Z (11:13PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME


Hate to feed the trolls, folks, but IMHO we'll likely have a serious LIGHTNING threat with this front. Take this front seriously, please.

[srainhoutx]

Morning update from Jeff:

Another upper level storm system approaching from the west this morning.

Moisture is increasing across the region mainly from the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Radar shows a defined “streamer” line over the Matagorda Bay region where moisture convergence is greatest. Expect to see scattered showers today as moisture increases off the Gulf of Mexico.

Main storm system and front arrive into the region on Wednesday. Lift and moisture will be maximized along this feature with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected along and ahead of the boundary. PWS peak in the 1.7-1.9 inch range which is high for this time of year, but below the Halloween storm event. Think heavy rainfall is possible, but not prolonged and not to the totals of last week. Main dynamics will be north of our area over N TX where heavier rains look more likely.

Rainfall amounts across SE TX will average 1-2 inches with isolated totals of up to 3 inches possible. See hydro section below.

Cold front will blast off the coast Wednesday evening ushering in a much colder air mass. Lows will fall into the 40’s for the end of the week with highs in the upper 60’s under mostly clear skies. Clouds begin to return by the weekend as we potentially establish an overrunning weather pattern with moist Gulf air gliding up and over the cool dome at the surface. Could see rain chances back as early as Sunday.

Hydro:

Flood Waves are passing through area rivers at this time.

San Bernard River: River is near bankfull at East Bernard and Sweeny and above flood stage at Boling. River will remain high through the end of the week

Brazos River: Flood Wave peak has passed Richmond this morning and will reach Rosharon Wednesday morning. Crests will be below flood stage at both points.

Colorado River: Flood wave has passed Wharton and Bay City and the river is in a rapid fall

Navasota River: Minor flooding continues at Normangee and this will continue through Wednesday

Trinity River: River will be rising downstream of Lake Livingston due to flood gate operations at the lake. Current rises are expected to be below flood stage.

Additional rainfall over SE TX and N TX over the next 48 hours will likely result in additions run-off and potential new rises/flood waves on area rivers.

[Paul Robison]

Morning update from Jeff:

Another upper level storm system approaching from the west this morning.

Moisture is increasing across the region mainly from the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Radar shows a defined “streamer” line over the Matagorda Bay region where moisture convergence is greatest. Expect to see scattered showers today as moisture increases off the Gulf of Mexico.

Main storm system and front arrive into the region on Wednesday. Lift and moisture will be maximized along this feature with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected along and ahead of the boundary. PWS peak in the 1.7-1.9 inch range which is high for this time of year, but below the Halloween storm event. Think heavy rainfall is possible, but not prolonged and not to the totals of last week. Main dynamics will be north of our area over N TX where heavier rains look more likely.

Rainfall amounts across SE TX will average 1-2 inches with isolated totals of up to 3 inches possible. See hydro section below.

Cold front will blast off the coast Wednesday evening ushering in a much colder air mass. Lows will fall into the 40’s for the end of the week with highs in the upper 60’s under mostly clear skies. Clouds begin to return by the weekend as we potentially establish an overrunning weather pattern with moist Gulf air gliding up and over the cool dome at the surface. Could see rain chances back as early as Sunday.

Hydro:

Flood Waves are passing through area rivers at this time.

San Bernard River: River is near bankfull at East Bernard and Sweeny and above flood stage at Boling. River will remain high through the end of the week

Brazos River: Flood Wave peak has passed Richmond this morning and will reach Rosharon Wednesday morning. Crests will be below flood stage at both points.

Colorado River: Flood wave has passed Wharton and Bay City and the river is in a rapid fall

Navasota River: Minor flooding continues at Normangee and this will continue through Wednesday

Trinity River: River will be rising downstream of Lake Livingston due to flood gate operations at the lake. Current rises are expected to be below flood stage.

Additional rainfall over SE TX and N TX over the next 48 hours will likely result in additions run-off and potential new rises/flood waves on area rivers.

Well, our problems may be bigger than that, Srainhoutx. Look:

000
FLUS44 KHGX 052140
HWOHGX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-062145-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
340 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS
GENERALLY AVERAGING LESS A QUARTER INCH. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS.
HOWEVER NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND HALF AN
INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SOME FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IN A FEW SPOTS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...ALTHOUGH FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE MOST LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION WIND GUSTS 40 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
OF THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
40mph or greater? Why not try for 60-80? HELP!

[Andrew]

Paul you crack me up. You never fail to amaze me with some of these comments. I assure you 40mph may even be on the high side. Looking at expected soundings for tomorrow around the time of the front shows virtually zero CAPE. As a result it will be hard to get any elevated storms. Looks like a mostly saturated atmosphere too which would eliminate evaporation (again limiting wind chances). I am sure there will be one or two storms ahead of the front that COULD MAYBE create some slightly stronger gusts of wind but I highly doubt it.

[Katdaddy]

Thunderstorms likely today as a strong cold front pushes through SE TX. Some heavy rainfall possible however the progressive nature of the front will keep totals low compared to Halloween. SPC has only a general thunderstorm threat but nothing severe. Skies clearing this evening and then some very nice Fall weather the next several days.

[redneckweather]

Yep, it looks like the front is moving at a pretty good clip so rain totals will be on the low side.

[srainhoutx]

The front has a bit of chill with it as well. Temps are in the upper 40's/low 50's across Central Texas. We may see some temps in the low to mid 40's across SE Texas tomorrow morning and a day or two of pleasant weather before another disturbance moves across the Lone Star State Saturday into Sunday in the zonal flow.

[txflagwaver]

The rain shield was up here today. Beautiful sunny day. Now just waiting for the cold air

[djmike]

Well that was big rain dissapointment. Now just waiting for the cold air to arrive. Atleast that is more promising.

[snowman65]

Came down good here in Bridge City for about 10 minutes....gone already.

[srainhoutx]

Morning update from Jeff:

Cold front has progressed well offshore overnight with cool high pressure building into the region. Today will be a good 10-15 degrees colder than yesterday along with gusty NW winds.

Surface high will be near/overhead tonight and with expected mostly clear skies and light winds, temperatures will likely fall to the lowest levels since last April in the low to mid 40’s with possibly a few 30’s up north and northwest. Surface high will shift eastward over the weekend allowing a returning of onshore winds, but moisture return will be fairly slow. Upper level short wave in the increasingly SW flow aloft could generate mostly cloudy conditions by late Saturday, but think the area will remain dry with fairly limited moisture below the mid level cloud bases.

Moisture continues to increase next week ahead of what could be a fairly potent cold front. GFS is suggesting a fairly strong high pressure cell on the order of 1040-1045mb dropping down the plains with origins in the Arctic. It is a little early for big arctic outbreaks and the ECMWF models is not nearly as strong as the GFS with the cold air, so for now the uncertainty for the middle of next week is high.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise a sharp and shallow Arctic air mass sliding S into the Plains from Canada next week.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro holds steady if not even stronger than the previous two cycles and suggests an 1045mb+ Arctic High Pressure settling into the Plains driving a sharp and shallow Arctic front all the way to Coastal Texas and Louisiana next week.

[kayci]

I think it's time for me to find a nice warm sunny beach for me to hibernate on till the spring...

[srainhoutx]

Our latest fall chill will transition to a chance of light showers over the weekend as a couple of short waves pass overhead in the zonal flow aloft. The Euro and GFS are in better agreement that a strong front will pass on Tuesday, but most of the energy associated with it will be off to our east. While it does appear there is a chance we may see our first frost/freeze for our Northern areas, it isn't all that early as we typically get that first frost or freeze in those areas near the middle of November. What may become a bigger weather maker could be lurking the following weekend (November 15-17) as a much stronger front and attending storm complex may develop offering a severe weather chance or even heavy rainfall. That remains to be seen as it is way too out to know with any certainty just how the pattern will develop.

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram off the 12Z GFS. Down to 34 next Wed/Thu with highs in the 53-55 range:

[srainhoutx]

HGX disco left a tease for Paul Robison for the following weekend...

We will keep it a secret since that tease may involve a full latitude trough...

[Paul Robison]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091148
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
548 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT WEATHER ON TAP THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY BENEATH/CLOSER TO UPPER JET AXIS
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MAY JUST BE A LOT OF SPRINKLES.
LL DRY AIR INTRUDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN INTO LA AND MAY EVEN BACK DOOR INTO
THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BACK UP
BRIEFLY. ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE PLUNGING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS MONDAY AND SHOULD DRIVE INTO TX TUESDAY MORNING AND SETX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE WITH IT BEING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
THAT IT COULD GET HERE 6 HOURS EARLIER WHICH WOULD PLAY HAVOC WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SETX. CURRENT PACKAGE IS BASED
ON THE AFTERNOON PASSAGE. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WITH EXTREMELY LIMITED INSTABILITY
EXPECTING MAINLY JUST SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN. VERY COLD DRY
AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. WE SHOULD SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A COLLEGE STATION TO
CONROE TO CLEVELAND LINE AND TEMPERATURES OF 29-31 WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIKELY FOR THE HUNTSVILLE AREAS NORTHEASTWARD AS RIDGE AXIS
STALLS OVER THE REGION. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPREADS LOOK TO BE
NARROWING AND LOWERING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS UPCOMING FREEZE HAVE
GROWN...STILL TO EARLY FOR A FREEZE WARNING TO BE ISSUED BUT
WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO BE READY FOR IT.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND MOISTURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TREND IN THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THE STORM SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND MONDAY FARTHER NORTH
TAKING SETX OUT OF THE BULLSEYE FOR SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT...BUT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA STILL CONCERNED THAT THE PATTERN HAS HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR A MAJOR WEATHER EVENT FOR SETX. STAY TUNED.


I'm confused, folks. If the model runs say we're not in danger, why is this guy still worried? Help me out, please!