NOVEMBER: Warming Up To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Cold morning across the region will give way to warming temperatures today into the weekend.

First freeze of the season has occurred north of a line from Hempstead to Conroe to Cleveland both yesterday and again this morning. Lows ranged between 29-32 in the freezing warning area, but it is likely that not all locations froze. Southward stronger winds yesterday morning and increased mid and high level clouds this morning preventing temperatures from falling below the mid 30’s. Large polar high responsible for the cold air intrusion is starting to move eastward and ESE to SE winds will become established today across the area.

A strong short wave over the SW US will push across TX tonight into Friday while moisture continues to stream overhead from the Pacific Ocean in the upper levels and tries to return from the Gulf in the lower levels. Recent cold front has progressed deep into the Gulf of Mexico and as suspected models have been too quick in low level moisture return. Moisture will be limited with the incoming short wave, but the associated lift does look strong, so we may be able to squeeze out a few showers mainly north of I-10 late tonight into Friday. Any rainfall should be on the light side.

Warm air advection pattern will be in place by with dewpoints recovering into the 60’s. Could see a few passing showers in the onshore flow or with any upper air disturbances in the SW flow aloft. Not expecting widespread rainfall on Saturday. Forecast is more uncertain Sunday-early next week as the latest guidance trends appear to be backing away from a frontal passage or at least showing a weaker front around Monday. Should see some increase in rain chances on Sunday, but this looks to mainly be showers as capping develops and mid-level flow becomes SW warming the mid-level temperatures. Over the past few days models have started to trend drier with the weekend into the early next week pattern. GFS yesterday was showing another freeze threat by the middle of next week, but this is starting to look less likely.  

[srainhoutx]

Since Andrew is in his Junior year of his Meteorology studies at Texas A&M, a couple of ‘wild cards’ I would offer regarding what may be some issues is the warm pool of sea surface temperatures across the Northern Pacific into and just S of the Gulf of Alaska as well as MJO forcing and the ENSO state going forward. I tend to believe this years Winter Pattern will be much more driven by the Pacific than the Atlantic and some interesting analogs do pop up when comparing the current state of the ‘warm pool of SST’s’ where they exist at this time in November. There are some indications that a blocking regime may become established as we head toward the end of November into early December that would tend to favor a colder to much colder pattern across the Inter Mountain West, into the Plains and on East. We are seeing some indications of a SE Ridge that also will need to be monitored.

Most notable analogs are 1960/1985/1989/1990/2001. Without getting too technical, we are seeing that the Pacific is driving the pattern we are currently experiencing and the analogs above did fairly well in spite of having AO+ regimes in November. It will be interesting to see if the current La Nina pattern which is slightly above neutral transitions to that of a weak El Nino which almost happened in late September into October. If the pattern across the N Pacific does remain in place, we could see some interesting developments downstream across Canada and the Lower 48. As we know, long range forecasting is not an exact science and to the enthusiast and professional alike, it offers challenges and is probably what drives our ‘disease’ as some call it to learn and understand the weather as much as we can possibly learn. It is a sick hobby we have after all.

[wxman57]

Overnight runs of the GFS backed away from any freezing temps locally next Tue/Wed. 12Z GFS has lows in north Houston in the mid 40s next Tue/Wed. That's about 15 deg warmer than yesterday's 12Z run. Up into the low 80s on Sunday, too. I'm already tired of winter.

[Ptarmigan]

Overnight runs of the GFS backed away from any freezing temps locally next Tue/Wed. 12Z GFS has lows in north Houston in the mid 40s next Tue/Wed. That's about 15 deg warmer than yesterday's 12Z run. Up into the low 80s on Sunday, too. I'm already tired of winter.

It is winter, it suppose to be cold.

[Portastorm]

Overnight runs of the GFS backed away from any freezing temps locally next Tue/Wed. 12Z GFS has lows in north Houston in the mid 40s next Tue/Wed. That's about 15 deg warmer than yesterday's 12Z run. Up into the low 80s on Sunday, too. I'm already tired of winter.

Winter?! Psshaw ... we still have a month of autumn left!

[Andrew]

Since Andrew is in his Junior year of his Meteorology studies at Texas A&M, a couple of ‘wild cards’ I would offer regarding what may be some issues is the warm pool of sea surface temperatures across the Northern Pacific into and just S of the Gulf of Alaska as well as MJO forcing and the ENSO state going forward. I tend to believe this years Winter Pattern will be much more driven by the Pacific than the Atlantic and some interesting analogs do pop up when comparing the current state of the ‘warm pool of SST’s’ where they exist at this time in November. There are some indications that a blocking regime may become established as we head toward the end of November into early December that would tend to favor a colder to much colder pattern across the Inter Mountain West, into the Plains and on East. We are seeing some indications of a SE Ridge that also will need to be monitored.

Yea my key interest (especially heading into Winter) is the blocking that could setup in the NW Atlantic. That is what ultimately could allow for a more southward orientation versus a quickly progressing eastern wave. The Pacific has been interesting as of lately though. The ridge in the North Pacific is pretty darn impressive.

[Andrew]

Looks like upper level shortwave is making its way across the state and offering enough lift to provide a couple of very light showers to the North. This could transition farther south as the day progresses tomorrow and we begin to see more moisture advect from the south.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Always good to see the cold weather whiners out.... my favorite time of the year!


You'll have to excuse me taking solace in your pain.... Summer is HELL around here, and I hate it with a passion.

[kayci]

Always good to see the cold weather whiners out.... my favorite time of the year!


You'll have to excuse me taking solace in your pain.... Summer is HELL around here, and I hate it with a passion.

whiners? we all have our preferences thank you.

[srainhoutx]

A warmer Spring like pattern continues making for a comfortable weekend before a Pacific front arrives on Monday. It appears this frontal boundary will be rather weak and wash out along the Coast allowing for a quick return of Gulf moisture early next week.

Lurking in the medium range forecast are big changes as we near next Thursday into next weekend. There is a lot of volatility in the guidance to be worked out during the upcoming work week. The GFS is suggesting a 1045mb cold high pressure system dropping S into the Southern Plains while a 500mb upper low translates quickly E across the Southern Rockies. The European and Canadian suggest a much stronger Arctic High Pressure cell of nearly 1055mb settling into Colorado and a very slow moving cold core upper low crawling E behind a strong cold front that most of the reliable guidance suggest will arrive next Friday, The fly in the ointment arises when looking at the ensemble solutions. If the slow meandering cold core upper low does linger into next weekend, a significant Winter Storm would be possible across a lot of real estate including the Desert SW/New Mexico and the Northern half of Texas and Oklahoma and on E with cold and raw rainy weather further S along Coastal Texas into Louisiana. As we mentioned, earlier in the long range discussion for the busy Thanksgiving "Outlook"...such a slow moving storm with cold air in place across much of the Southern and Eastern US could make for some interesting travel impacts during the peak Thanksgiving Holiday travel period, should it develop. We will see.

[unome]

sure is windy in the panhandle

[Paul Robison]

Only one thing bothering me about Monday's expected cold front, folks: With some models advertising SHRA/TSHRA activity for tomorrow morning, could we be in for another mesocyclonic event like we had the Sunday before Halloween?

[Andrew]

Very interesting to see the GFS suggest that the Cold Closed low could filter in more cold air than previously suggested. Even shows the potential for a couple of surprises for North/Central Texas.

[Paul Robison]

Very interesting to see the GFS suggest that the Cold Closed low could filter in more cold air than previously suggested. Even shows the potential for a couple of surprises for North/Central Texas.

Where do you see that?

[srainhoutx]

Very interesting to see the GFS suggest that the Cold Closed low could filter in more cold air than previously suggested. Even shows the potential for a couple of surprises for North/Central Texas.

The trends over the weekend certainly do paint an interesting pattern with our first true SW cutoff low of the season now depicted near San Diego and slowly ejecting E and opening up over Texas/Oklahoma late this coming weekend. The general theme via the 00Z guidance suggests a strong Canadian air mass with1050mb+ high pressure cell dropping S from Canada and settling across the Southern Plains as some modification occurs.

What is different from our last cold shot is this likely will not clear out the area as clouds and over running precip develops in a SW flow aloft as that upper low to our W slowly slides E over a chilly shallow cold air mass at the surface. The Northern stream also looks somewhat active as strong disturbances ride E across the Central/Northern Plains keeping cloudy conditions and less in the way of daytime modification as cold air advection continues from the N. Over running precip should develop beginning next weekend and depending on just when the SW upper low ejects, a Coastal wave of low pressure may develop near Corpus Christi and head up the Coast providing additional lift.

Chilly surface temps in near or just above freezing across portions of Central and Northern Texas could offer some p type issues mainly in the form of either very cold rain or a freezing rain/sleet wintry mix. Further N and W snow looks likely across the Panhandle and New Mexico and rain possibly mixed with snow could fall across portions of Oklahoma. It is also noteworthy that the AO has began to decline from a very positive state and the are indications that a pattern change is developing across the NE Pacific to that of a PNA Ridge and a blocking pattern across the Atlantic. A Polar Vortex anomaly is beginning to show signs of developing across Canada as well. If we begin to see snow develop across the Plains as the Northern stream storm track drops S into the Northern and Central Plains, less Polar air mass modification begins to be an issue as disturbances drop S along the West Coast and develop to our W and SW as some of the longer range guidance is now beginning to suggest.

Typically after a big warm up as we saw this weekend as we transition toward winter, the pattern has tendency to flip to that of a colder regime. We are beyond the mid November time frame and shorter days and winter season is quickly coming, like it or not.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Damnit... Baton Rouge is squarely in the rain/coolness for the A&M-LSU game next Saturday.

[srainhoutx]

Via twitter@Ryan Maue 12Z Euro Mean Sea Level Pressures and Anomalies as well as 7 day snowfall. Nasty looking solution across the Northern New Mexico mountain areas such as Taos and Angel Fire extending into West Texas and the Panhandle during the coming weekend. We will see...

The attachment 11182013 Ryan Maue 12Z Euro Snowfall 7 Day BZYUB9WCMAAGpaq.png is no longer available

Also Updated 7 Day QPF increasing across Central and SE Texas into Louisiana.

[tireman4]

This could be an interesting set of days coming. Hummmmm

[ticka1]

going to angel fire for our first ski trip....this snow would be awesome!!!!

[skidog40]

a lot of cold temperatures in northern Canada, I noticed on some of the maps I look at that Greenland has more snow pack this year than previous, even more now than winter time.