NOVEMBER: Warming Up To End The Month

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I could go for a week long sub freezing cold snap to kill all the larvae in Montgomery county.

The mosquitoes have laughed at our last couple of Winters.

[snowman65]

Just walked outside....changing as we speak

[kayci]

Is it summer yet?

[snowman65]

Summer is NOT welcome here....try a different forum...hehe . It will be back before you know it....Friday, I believe...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Is it summer yet?

Booooooo... we have enough Hell (Summer) around here from April through September. Let us cold weather lovers enjoy our 10-15 days a year of cold weather.

[wxman57]

At least the weather looks a little better (warmer) for the weekend. Lows in the 70s and highs in the 80s:

[kayci]

Wow! Such hostility! A girl can wish......

[snowman65]

From what I'm seeing, next weeks front doesn't look near as strong as the one we are getting today....

[srainhoutx]

From what I'm seeing, next weeks front doesn't look near as strong as the one we are getting today....

The 12Z Operational European drives to coldest air of the season all the way to the Rio Grande Valley and S into Mexico. I'm not sure that the models have a real clue this far out about next week. That said the general trend is that this full latitude trough pattern may have some teeth and the pattern that has been driven by the Pacific is changing to one where increasing cold air potential may be arriving yet again next week and into Thanksgiving Week. In fact there is some potential for a very stormy and cold period as we near the Holiday time frame for much of the Lower 48. We will see..

[snowman65]

From what I'm seeing, next weeks front doesn't look near as strong as the one we are getting today....

The 12Z Operational European drives to coldest air of the season all the way to the Rio Grande Valley and S into Mexico. I'm not sure that the models have a real clue this far out about next week. That said the general trend is that this full latitude trough pattern may have some teeth and the pattern that has been driven by the Pacific is changing to one where increasing cold air potential may be arriving yet again next week and into Thanksgiving Week. In fact there is some potential for a very stormy and cold period as we near the Holiday time frame for much of the Lower 48. We will see..

That would be a grand time in Tennessee for me Thanksgiving week

[Paul Robison]

Any possibilty of strong/severe thunderstorms Saturday through next Tuesday?

[Katdaddy]

Its a cold, clear, and breezy morning. Temps in the mid to upper 30s across SE TX with low 40s along the coast. Highs to reach the mid to upper 50s with another cold night on the way.

[ticka1]

My low was 35 degrees this morning! Winter has arrived and I love it!

[srainhoutx]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
727 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 32 DEGREES OCCURRED AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM
TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 32 SET IN 1976.

[djmike]

Here are few numbers for the Golden Triangle area:

Low temps lastnight/this morning:

Beaumont/Kelly High - 32
Beaumont/Lamar - 33
Beaumont/Marshall - 31
Jasper/Rowe - 28
Port Arthur/Lamar - 34
Orange/Community - 30
Sabine Pass/Sea Rim - 35
Kirbyville/Newton - 29
Lumberton/HS - 31

...and for kicks!
Fairbanks, AK - 8

[srainhoutx]

^^

Keep an eye on those temps in Fairbanks/Eastern Alaska and Western Canada. Our next front due on Monday will come from those source Regions, although somewhat modified. And as far as any storms or severe weather with that next Arctic front, it appears that only a slight chance of some rain and that is about it. Further E will see more in the way of rainfall mainly E of the Mississippi River and possibly into Central Louisiana.

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram off the 06Z GFS. Nice warm up for the weekend but another strong cold front arrives early on Monday.

[srainhoutx]

Enjoy the warmer weather this weekend. The latest Euro and CFSv2 Long Range Weeklies have flipped from above normal temps to below normal temps over the next couple of weeks. Further out where forecasting skill is greatly reduced, there are strong indications that much below normal temps will take hold across our source Regions and extend S into the Plains.

[Ptarmigan]

Getting back into drought mode as well...

Cold, dry, miserable...

Very concerning. Thanksgiving should be interesting.

[Andrew]

The next front that should approach the area next week seems to have some disparity in the models. The GFS and Euro both showed a full latitude trough affecting the region but have since backed off on the southward progression (and increased the Eastward speed). This next front shouldn't be as intense as the last one for a couple of reasons. Lately the Pacific/ North American teleconnection pattern has been collapsing. The Aleutian Islands have been experiencing some very high heights across the area and the PNA reflects this with values getting down into the -2 to -3 range.

PNA.gif

Next looking at the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations, both are almost at a strong positive peak right now which is limiting the southward progression of any arctic air. There are some pretty low heights in the arctic region but not much their to currently push it south. The mid latitude (polar) jet, while currently looks pretty intense, won't buckle too far south. This will limit the southern transition of any colder air, but should allow for a pretty nice collision with the subtropical jet in the Ark region. The Arkansas/Oklahoma region looks like a good place for a 130kt jet streak to setup for some very nice shear and upper air divergence. Could allow for a decent severe weather event (and is what the SPC has been picking up on). Closer to home severe weather shouldn't be an issue, and while the cold air doesn't look as promising as this last round, their is hope on the horizon. With models hinting at the PNA going positive and the NAO and AO going negative we could see heights begin to rise in the arctic with a nice dip in the jet. Currently both the GFS and Euro speculate that we could see a very nice blocking pattern setup east of the great late regions with plenty of cold air to work with. While this is a couple of weeks out, the synoptic pattern is looking very supportive for the end of the month/ beginning of December. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

AO Forecast:

AO.gif

NAO Forecast:

NAO.gif