Wx Infinity Forums

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1006 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z DATA SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST WITH
SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE NOTED OVER EAST TEXAS. MOISTURE STILL LOOKS
RATHER PLENTIFUL AT 850 AND 700 MB. THE FREEZING LINE AT 850 MB
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SE TX. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MSTR WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED
YESTERDAY AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS TO
HIGH END CHANCE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. RAP AND 12Z NAM
12 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP OVER THE NE
QUARTER OF THE CWA. SOUNDINGS LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AROUND 18Z
FROM CROCKETT TO LIVINGSTON. NOT SURE HOW COLD MID LEVEL AIR WILL
BE BUT ADDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NE PART OF THE AREA. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATE. NEW ZONES
OUT BY 1030 AM. 43

The latest 15Z RAP brings the cold core upper low directly over SE Texas.
The 13Z HRRR Ensemble composite is suggesting an wintry mix across the area as well, although rather light.

Question; IF and thats a big IF. If it were to sleet in the Beaumont area, around what time would be the best oppurtunity?
Looks like plenty of moisture has regenerated over our area again and looks to be around for a few more hours atleast. So we have the moisture, just curious if everything else will come into alignment and if so, about when.

djmike wrote:Question; IF and thats a big IF. If it were to sleet in the Beaumont area, around what time would be the best oppurtunity?
Looks like plenty of moisture has regenerated over our area again and looks to be around for a few more hours atleast. So we have the moisture, just curious if everything else will come into alignment and if so, about when.

The U/L has made the turn heading E around the Matagorda Bay area. I suspect that with the rapid movement the best chances would be further N in the Warren and Jasper area ~vs~ Beaumont proper and probably ending by around 3 PM or so. I'm about 10-15 miles N of I-10 in NW Harris County and so far nothing is reaching the ground here. We will see.

Sleet reported in College Station.

Sleet mixed with rain reported in Huntsville.

HGX has received a report of snow SW of Huntsville.

Grimes County Sheriffs Office reports snow in Anderson. Also Brooks relayed a report of sleet Blanchard 10 miles from Lake Livingston.

'Bright banding' in Grimes county beginning?

Rain falling now in NW Harris County. I suspect there will be some sleet mixing in before long with the brighter echos dropping S now.

Sleet now reported in Normangee.

Pretty sure there is light sleet in Conroe by the airport.

Sleet mixing with light rain here in NW Harris County now.

Snow in Anderson

Huntsville too...

Off and on little pellets hitting the window now. Vets Memorial/1960 area.

Rain/snow mix reported in Conroe. Also Cypress area reporting sleet and rain mix.

Edit to add rain/snow mix in Livingston.

38 to 40 degrees in our area of Cypress

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... ress%2C+tx

very cold rain & if I don't see some sunshine pretty soon I'll go crazy, but no snow/sleet here, yet

not looking forward to freezing temps & ruined landscape though :(

Briefly got moderate sleet here in Humble

Here, it's rain that has just changed-over from snow. It's sorta this thick slushy rain, but it's too melted to be snow. I wondered about this when I saw the radar this morning, you could see the forcing & lift with the low itself. If it were a couple of degrees cooler this would have been a nice snow for us.

decent sleet for about 5 minutes around 1:20, Beltway 8 and West Road