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WTPN33 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 10.2N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 129.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.1N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.9N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.9N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.1N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.9N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.6N 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.9N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 128.1E.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
//

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Super Typhoon Haiyan has 190 mph winds! This is stronger than Wilma or Gilbert!

One of our Weather Forum members, Hurricane Josh is currently in the city of Tacloban to intercept Super Typhoon Haiyan. For those interested you can follow updates on the iCyclone Facebook feed as this powerful cyclone makes landfall.

https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone?hc_location=stream

Extreme storm chaser Jim Edds is in the Philippines and in the direct path of Super Typhoon Haiyan.
You can follow his updates on Twitter: www.twitter.com/extremestorms

the 3 amigos are covering it together

Josh Morgerman https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone?filter=1

Jim Edds https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms

James Reynolds https://twitter.com/typhoonfury


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BYfdUgDCUAA6Wwg.jpg:large

missed this earlier: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater

Reunion in Manila: Mark Thomas, Josh Morgerman, and James Reynolds at the airport, ready to hop on a small plane to Tacloban to chase extremely dangerous Super Typhoon HAIYAN. More soon!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/flash-vis.html

What explains the 'double eye' in certain satellite loops? 195 mph!!!

I used our hurricane program to generate a wind profile for Tacloban City. It appears Haiyan's eye will pass directly over:

It is a shame that we can't get recon inside this storm. There are probably many records being shattered right now. This is by far the prettiest storm I have ever seen. Absolutely perfect.

http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A ... =dAQFQzgVk

It is going to be very rough for the Philippines.

video of surge/flooding in Tacloban

http://youtu.be/yL-M-tmAdIA

No updates from these guys...it's got to be bad

Newer info on Youtube

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCONHJAs ... ture=watch

Josh and the guys are out, although Mark was injured and will require surgery after being cut badly recueing survivors in their hotel after storm surge trapped people/guests on the first floor. They has put some video up, but stopped recording to assist and evacute the wounded and trapped. They were airlifted out of the area and Josh spoke of total destruction and numerous fatalities. The update can be found on the iCyclone Facebook feed. Josh travels with special equipment to measure barometric pressure and wind speeds that is then forwarded to the NHC and other official meteorological official agencies for accurate documentation and provide valueable data need for reanalysis.

iCyclone talks to Oz Cyclone Chasers about chasing Haiyan

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqbkjpJQF_M

Starvation and fear in the land laid waste by typhoon: At least 10,000 dead as 200 mph winds smash into the Philippines
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... pines.html

At least 10,000 people have been killed and is expected to rise. The 10,000 dead is one city alone, Tacloban. Corpses are seen on trees and streets.

I think the 10,000 # was an exaggeration estimate by a local offical - horrid situation, to be sure, but I don't think anyone could possibly yet know what the death toll is

GDACS site has a lot of credible information, updates frequently http://vosocc.unocha.org/rss/vo_2455gzwe.html

Samar town suffers 434 dead but receives no government aid
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/526303/sam ... rnment-aid

Aide is yet to reach many ravaged areas.

the Philippine Star - Digital Edition http://digitaledition.philstar.com/

no user id, password or subscription required !

an interesting article on pg 14 about record sea levels

Scientists improve models that can predict killer cyclone storm surge
http://www.eenews.net/stories/1059990425

Super Typhoon Haiyan and 1900 Galveston Hurricane are similar in terms of storm surge. This caught my attention.

He took SURGEDAT's 130 years of storm surge and hurricane data for the Gulf of Mexico and ran a statistical analysis to see which hurricane conditions correlate with storm surge height. What he found was somewhat unexpected.

The factors that most strongly predicted storm surge height were the size and wind speed of the hurricane 18 hours before it made landfall. "The pre-landfall hurricane characteristics are very important," Needham said.

It is before landfall that storm surge is most highest and dangerous.