December: New Years Eve Outlook

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yep, GFS can't be trusted at all this go around.

I'm going with Euro/Canadian as they are consistent.

[ticka1]

this is like a tropical system -better to be prepared -what happens happens. just as with a hurricane we cant stop it from coming but you sure as heck can be prepared. do i want pipebusting weather no i dont but i can protect what i have and help others be prepared. we have a week or more to prepared. i know several people who have taken action and are wrapping pipes this weekend and being pro-active!

remember trends and patterns are what to look at this far out.

[Katdaddy]

Well stated Ticka. I too will complete some Winter preps this weekend just in case and continue to follow the models and trends over the weekend and next week.

[cristina6871]

Yep, GFS can't be trusted at all this go around.

I'm going with Euro/Canadian as they are consistent.

I was just about to ask a similar question.....remind me what the GFS stands for.....and why we tend look at that more than the Euro/Canadian?

[cristina6871]

this is like a tropical system -better to be prepared -what happens happens. just as with a hurricane we cant stop it from coming but you sure as heck can be prepared. do i want pipebusting weather no i dont but i can protect what i have and help others be prepared. we have a week or more to prepared. i know several people who have taken action and are wrapping pipes this weekend and being pro-active!

remember trends and patterns are what to look at this far out.

I live in an apartment on the 2nd floor. What might I need to do to get ready? Will go to store this weekend to stock up...if we do get a very deep chill, most likely I will be spending it at the parents. My cats are indoors but is there anything I need to do to prepare them?

[srainhoutx]

I was just about to ask a similar question.....remind me what the GFS stands for.....and why we tend look at that more than the Euro/Canadian?

GFS is the American model aka Global Forecasting System

[TexasMetBlake]

Yes, clearly a garbage run. The model is having a hard time resolving the cold air. I suspect it'll be back with a vengeance in later runs---although tomorrow we'll be inside day 7 so the wide variations should begin to cease.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The 10-day Operational AFWA Global Multi-Center Ensemble shows a mean low temperature of 29F next Sunday morning at 6 am for CLL.

That being said, the potential error in the 2 m temp is on the order of 24F next weekend!

[wxman57]

I'll be insulating my hose bibbs this weekend and the 3ft of pipe coming out of the ground to one of the bibbs (main water supply). In addition, since my water pipes are in the attic I'm going to re-check them to make sure I have some insulation covering them.

If it gets really cold (teens) and won't get above freezing for 24 hrs or more then I plan to shut off the water supply to the house at the hose bibb then open up the faucets to drain the pipes. Can turn the water back on at any time to shower or do laundry then turn it back off and re-drain the pipes.

http://www.homedepot.com/p/Frost-King-2 ... /203221860

[MontgomeryCoWx]

[JamieP]

Hello everyone - long time lurker here, I love following the board, especially when a potential "event" is about to happen! I was 8 yrs old during the record cold of winter of '89, so all I had to worry about was playing in the ice/snow. But I'm an adult now, and a home owner and have a prep question.

I live in the county and have a water well. The well tank is not enclosed (no building or barrier around it). I know what needs to be done for any exposed pipes & spigots, but do I need to do anything to protect the well tank? Hubby and I plan on preparing this weekend "just in case". Any feedback is greatly appreciated!

[wxman57]

Hello everyone - long time lurker here, I love following the board, especially when a potential "event" is about to happen! I was 8 yrs old during the record cold of winter of '89, so all I had to worry about was playing in the ice/snow. But I'm an adult now, and a home owner and have a prep question.

I live in the county and have a water well. The well tank is not enclosed (no building or barrier around it). I know what needs to be done for any exposed pipes & spigots, but do I need to do anything to protect the well tank? Hubby and I plan on preparing this weekend "just in case". Any feedback is greatly appreciated!

How big is the tank? What shape is it? Odds are it would not freeze, but pipes leading from it would be susceptible to freezing.

[srainhoutx]

The updated HPC/WPC Day 3 to 7 surface charts were just issued. Those charts suggest the Arctic Front arriving in the Panhandle and portions of N Texas overnight next Thursday into early Friday. Remember that the timing is subject to changing.

[JamieP]

Hello everyone - long time lurker here, I love following the board, especially when a potential "event" is about to happen! I was 8 yrs old during the record cold of winter of '89, so all I had to worry about was playing in the ice/snow. But I'm an adult now, and a home owner and have a prep question.

I live in the county and have a water well. The well tank is not enclosed (no building or barrier around it). I know what needs to be done for any exposed pipes & spigots, but do I need to do anything to protect the well tank? Hubby and I plan on preparing this weekend "just in case". Any feedback is greatly appreciated!

How big is the tank? What shape is it? Odds are it would not freeze, but pipes leading from it would be susceptible to freezing.

The tank is a cylinder shape. It stands about 6 1/2 ft tall. All pipes leading to the tank from the house are buried underground, with the exception of where it connects to the tank, which we will have covered with the foam pipe stuff.

[wxman57]

The tank is a cylinder shape. It stands about 6 1/2 ft tall. All pipes leading to the tank from the house are buried underground, with the exception of where it connects to the tank, which we will have covered with the foam pipe stuff.

I think it'll be fine, then. It would take a heck of a freeze to freeze such a tank.

[cristina6871]

does that mean that the models are trending to what the GFS is saying....no bitter cold for Christmas?

[TexasBreeze]

Snipet from DFW about cold snap...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 PM CST FRI DEC 13 2013

...... MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE GATHERING ACROSS CANADA AS A POLAR VORTEX TRACKS FROM SIBERIA...ACROSS THE NORTH POLE...AND INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ANTI-CYCLOGENESIS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CELL THAT DROPS INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WOULD LIKELY TRACK THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND. WE HAVE SEEN THE MODELS WAFFLE A BIT ON JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS FOR NORTH TEXAS. WHILE THIS WILL SURELY BE ANOTHER NOTEWORTHY COLD SNAP FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...AS FAR AS NORTH TEXAS IS CONCERNED...THE MODELS ARE NOT FORECASTING AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT WOULD RESULT IN ANY TYPE OF RECORD BREAKING COLD HERE. AT THIS POINT I DONT SEE ANY COMPELLING REASON TO BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ANY COLDER THAN OUR LAST ARCTIC SPELL. THIS IS BECAUSE ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON STRONG SURFACE LOW CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH MORE PROGRESSIVE. PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGHS DONT LET AS MUCH COLD AIR DROP THIS FAR SOUTH AS SLOW MOVING OR STATIONARY UPPER TROUGHS DO. ESSENTIALLY IN THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ENDS UP HEADING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH ONCE IT ARRIVES INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.......

[jasons2k]

That speaks to when we look for record-breaking blue northers, there should be an omega block or MacFarland signature; not a progressive pattern.

[TxJohn]

Channel 13 weather team wants to assure the public NO TEENS in Houston....nothing but a light freeze. They said they're CONFIDENT THERE WILL Be NO TEENS.

Talk about a premature statement. This is ridiculous...

[TxJohn]

WxBell PPV Op Euro 6 hour precip and 32ºF line suggests more North Texas fun in about a week.

6 hour amounts only a tenth or two, and only for a limited time, but ice is ice. Doesn't line up the cold and moisture quite rights locally, but we have over a week for the models to change slightly to a happier direction, and we all hope for globals and poor handling of shallow cold airmasses. Not getting excited yet, plus where the Euro is verbatim being happy, is not too heavy with ice, 1) weekend and 2) pretty sure Christmas Break/Solstice Saturnalia/Winter Carnival has started.


Op, ensemble and ensemble control member all showing cold right before Christmas, but not end of the world cold. 20s at night isn't the end of the world, and the WxMan57 pipe wrapping cold, I really hope that doesn't happen. Personal preference. I like my plants.

OP shows suggests mid to upper 70s end of next week as daytime highs before next front, but a week from Monday highs only in the 40s. Holy cool down, Batman!

BTW, Friday front *might* have FUN-derstorm potential. Obviously, more next week on that.

Oh...I guess they were right. Sucks..better luck next time...