December: New Years Eve Outlook

[Portastorm]

Well, I must have been on the "naughty" list this year because I asked Santa for me to wake up to a Winter Storm Warning for Austin with 2-3 inches of snow mixed with sleet in the forecast. Instead I got partly cloudy and a high temp in the mid 50s!

Joking aside, Merry Christmas to everyone here at the KHOU Community Weather Forum! May you have a blessed day with some peace and joy rolled in for good measure.

[Ptarmigan]

Huge temperature difference in Albany, New York area. Freezing at the valley and warm on top of hills.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weathe ... trynum=227

Merry Christmas!

[srainhoutx]

At looks like we will stay cloudy with a series of upper troughs passing by with a zonal flow until the weekend when temperature will moderate a bit with a returned flow off the cool shelf waters of the Gulf begins. Current shelf water temps are running in the mid 50's, so a big warm up appears unlikely before a strong cold front arrives Sunday. If we can clear our Monday into New Years Eve, a light freeze looks possible across our Region. December looks to end with below normal temperature departures for the month. Those few days of above normal temperature last week will likely not be enough to overcome the -20 to -25 below normal temps we experienced during the early/mid December time frame. Right now it appears that New Years Eve will be cool and dry ringing in 2014.

[srainhoutx]

The cloudy, cool and showery pattern looks to linger into the upcoming weekend. An upper air disturbance continues the upglide pattern into Sunday until a stronger push of colder air passes to our S and hopefully gives us a brief break early next week. There has been a lot of uncertainty regarding the New Years Eve forecast due to a cut off upper low developing over the Baja Region and today things look even more uncertain. It appears that we may see an upglide develop once again late Monday with light precip over runnung the shallow modified cold air at the surface. The Euro and GFS are not in agreement, but as we have seen since late Christmas Day, it is probably wise to introduce light rain chances into the forecast as a noisy sub tropical jet remains close to the Coast.

[Portastorm]

The cloudy, cool and showery pattern looks to linger into the upcoming weekend. An upper air disturbance continues the upglide pattern into Sunday until a stronger push of colder air passes to our S and hopefully gives us a brief break early next week. There has been a lot of uncertainty regarding the New Years Eve forecast due to a cut off upper low developing over the Baja Region and today things look even more uncertain. It appears that we may see an upglide develop once again late Monday with light precip over runnung the shallow modified cold air at the surface. The Euro and GFS are not in agreement, but as we have seen since late Christmas Day, it is probably wise to introduce light rain chances into the forecast as a noisy sub tropical jet remains close to the Coast.

Yes sir. There is an amazing amount of divergence in the overnight guidance as the GFS, European, and Canadian model solutions all show a different pattern. The deterministic and ensembles both! Think it's safe to say the models are struggling with the pattern ahead. As our friend wxman57 tells us, don't trust any forecast beyond 4-5 days. Think that's especially true today.

[skidog40]

seems that colder air is filtering in from the east, is it going to be colder tonight than expected

[srainhoutx]

A strong Canadian front is pushing S across the Panhandle and Red River Valley this morning and will drop our temperatures to below seasonal values tonight into the end of the month. A trough and associated upper air disturbance now located across the Baja will make for a tricky forecast temperature wise for morning low and daytime highs as clouds associated with the sub tropical jet may blanket areas closer to the Coast. As we have seen of late, the noisy sub tropical jet has been close to the Coastal and Central Texas areas with cloudy conditions that have been slow to erode. Enjoy the sunshine today as it may be a while before we clear out completely into the new Years Eve time frame.

[srainhoutx]

I am seeing some reports of light freezing drizzle across portions of N Texas. The updated WPC Winter Weather Outlook issued late this afternoon does suggest some potential for very light freezing precip as far S as Central Texas into Monday.

[skidog40]

41 in Austin now, a lot colder than predicted at this time

[Portastorm]

41 in Austin now, a lot colder than predicted at this time

No kidding. We're now down to 35 at my house with light drizzle. This could get a little interesting later on during the overnight if the trend continues.

[srainhoutx]

It appears that those high temperatures of the 50's expected today will bust by a good 10 F too high. The latest visible imagery suggests that the upper low trough crossing Mexico as left heavy snow across the Sierra Mountains S and W of Monterrey and the noisy sub tropical jet is keeping the clouds across the area with showers offshore.