December: New Years Eve Outlook

[srainhoutx]

Just as an FYI, I continue to see a reloading pattern as we head further into December as the -EPO regime continues to be anchored near and just W of the Aleutian Islands allowing for the 'coldest air' across the Northern Hemisphere to be on our side of the Globe. There are some indications the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will begin to fall into the negative territory very soon. This tends to give credence to the repeating Arctic Outbreak potential that may well last to near the Christmas time frame and possibly beyond.

[wxman57]

Here are some new meteograms based on the 12Z GFS. About another degree warmer in Houston for this weekend. Check out the following weekend on the lower image. The Euro has a low near 40 across Houston this coming Saturday with a high of 45. On Sunday, the Euro forecasts a low near 44 Sunday with a high of 57 deg.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

IMO, Euro is trash on this run considering the airmass

[Ptarmigan]

Here are some new meteograms based on the 12Z GFS. About another degree warmer in Houston for this weekend. Check out the following weekend on the lower image. The Euro has a low near 40 across Houston this coming Saturday with a high of 45. On Sunday, the Euro forecasts a low near 44 Sunday with a high of 57 deg.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zdec2.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx12zdec2.gif

The 16 day forecast shows lows in the 20s for Houston and looks like a hard freeze on December 14th where it does not go above freezing. I know it is 12 days away and anything can change.

[srainhoutx]

IMO, Euro is trash on this run considering the airmass

The ensemble mean is much colder that the operational just beyond hour 84 or Thursday evening into early Friday...

Image from Ryan Maue

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Can someone explain why the operational and ensemble mean can have quite the delta at times?

[wxman57]

The 16 day forecast shows lows in the 20s for Houston and looks like a hard freeze on December 14th where it does not go above freezing. I know it is 12 days away and anything can change.

Saw that. Let's hope it doesn't come close to verifying. I'd rather have highs of 110F here.

[TxJohn]

Here are some new meteograms based on the 12Z GFS. About another degree warmer in Houston for this weekend. Check out the following weekend on the lower image. The Euro has a low near 40 across Houston this coming Saturday with a high of 45. On Sunday, the Euro forecasts a low near 44 Sunday with a high of 57 deg.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zdec2.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx12zdec2.gif

The 16 day forecast shows lows in the 20s for Houston and looks like a hard freeze on December 14th where it does not go above freezing. I know it is 12 days away and anything can change.

Hopefully it changes for the better and keeps dropping as we get closer to that time period. Come on teens with wind chills in the single digits

[TxJohn]

So no possibility of snow this weekend?

[TxJohn]

If it's raining at 36 degrees shouldn't that be snow?

[Portastorm]

Both NWSFOs HGX (Houston/Galveston) and EWX (Austin/San Antonio) in their afternoon forecast discussions seem uninspired by this coming weekend's weather, namely the prospect for wintry precipitation.

EWX: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

HGX: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[TxJohn]

So much for the "great arctic outbreak" this weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows just at the 40 degree mark..I don't see what's cold about that. No mention of frozen precip...they're actually sorta ruling out the possibility. And that's too far out for next week's "big deep freeze" by Sunday those 20's will turn to 40's. All the hype...and we still get nothing at the end of the day besides some cool weather. I don't get it..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SUPPORTED TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
FOR MOST AREAS. GULF MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED ALONG THE COAST
BASICALLY SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 60S.
AREAS FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE HAVE HAD DEWPOINT TEMPS
MIX OUT DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RECOVERY
IN MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THAT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS IF WINDS STAY AROUND 5KTS FROM THE SOUTH.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WED/THUR SO POSSIBLE TO HAVE FOG
EACH OF THOSE NIGHTS DEPENDING ON WINDS. TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPS AT 850MB WARM TO AROUND
17-18C TOMORROW SO THINK LOW 80S LOOKS REASONABLE. RECORD HIGH
TEMP AT KIAH IS 85 AND 86 AT KCLL. DO NOT THINK IT WILL GET THAT
WARM. WILL KEEP SOME 20 POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON WED BUT REALLY
DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE MUCH ACTIVITY.

DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
BUT WILL OCCUR SLOWLY. THE 12Z MODELS WERE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH. CANADIAN COLD FRONT WORKS INTO TX
ON WED AND STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH A SLOWER PUSH THAN THE GFS BUT THE 12Z GFS IS NOW
SHOWING VERY SIMILAR TIMING. THIS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO KCLL AREA
AROUND 18Z THEN HOUSTON METRO AROUND 00Z FRI JUST IN TIME FOR RUSH
HOUR. BASED OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY STILL RATHER LIMITED
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OVERALL
JUST DO NOT SEE A LOT OF STORM ORGANIZATION WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY. MAIN THREATS IF ANYTHING WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONG STORMS BUT A SMALL PROBABILITY.
AS SUCH POPS ARE HELD AROUND 30-50 PERCENT ON THUR.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND ONLY BARELY PUSHING
OFF THE COST BY FRI MORNING. FRONT LOOKS TO HOLD PARALLEL TO MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOING INTO FRI. COLD FRONT AT 850MB ONLY SLIGHTLY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
BELOW 850MB. FRONT WILL GET A BETTER PUSH DURING THIS TIME AS
RIGHT ENTRANCE TO JET APPROACHES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD BE STRONG AND THINK FRI MORNING BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW 60 POPS LOOK ON TRACK BUT
COULD GO HIGHER NOW THAT MODELS ARE STARTING TO BE IN MORE
AGREEMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN PRECIP TYPE MAINLY AS
COLDER SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY ANOTHER JET STREAK MOVES BY WITH AGAIN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AT
290K HAS LIFT INCREASING OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE. MODELS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
ABOVE THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A HINT OF A SUB-FREEZING LAYER JUST
OFF THE SURFACE FOR COLLEGE STATION TO CROCKETT ON SATURDAY BUT
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR FROZEN PRECIP. GIVEN THE SET UP
WILL KEEP WITH GENERALLY 30-40 POPS AS THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH WITH A MUCH DEEPER/COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND IT. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO END SUN NIGHT PERHAPS EARLIER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
COLD WET WEEKEND.

[TxJohn]

Seems like lows will only be in the low 40s come this weekend.

[Andrew]

Seems like lows will only be in the low 40s come this weekend.

I suspect they will be lower than that. Models (especially around this range) have trouble picking up the density of the colder air. Probably a little too early to bite on the slower speed of the colder air which could result in colder temps across the area.

[TxJohn]

Seems like lows will only be in the low 40s come this weekend.

I suspect they will be lower than that. Models (especially around this range) have trouble picking up the density of the colder air. Probably a little too early to bite on the slower speed of the colder air which could result in colder temps across the area.

Hopefully..I'd like some snow/sleet.

Interesting KHOU has temps hitting the freezing mark next week when Tim Heller keeps them above freezing and strongly says it's gonna be well above freezing and NO snow, sleet, freezing rain because the air aloft will be simply to warm. And he seems pretty confident in his forecast...this far out.


I loved David Paul's forecast this evening...hopefully it trends colder and wetter for a snow miracle

[Heat Miser]

Cold is but one ingredient, TxJohn. Down here we often get freezing temps at the surface, which would lead most to believe snow or sleet. But, the depth of that cold air means everything. We usually have shallow arctic air masses with a warm layer aloft. February 2011 was a prime example of a warm layer aloft busting a predicted snow event.

[Ptarmigan]

Saw that. Let's hope it doesn't come close to verifying. I'd rather have highs of 110F here.

Having highs of 110°F is a rare event like seeing freezes in Houston.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, it is the NAM at 84 hours, but it supports the 12Z Euro's school cancelling ice storm for Dallas Friday.


Rain below freezing with 850 mb temps over 10C.

Ugh, I hate the NAM but I guess it's good entertainment tonight. My fantasy QB Brees is getting eaten alive so I need some amusement. I see at 84 hours the NAM has freezing rain very close, if not on top of, the 40 Acres. Hmmm....

[Ptarmigan]

Ugh, I hate the NAM but I guess it's good entertainment tonight. My fantasy QB Brees is getting eaten alive so I need some amusement. I see at 84 hours the NAM has freezing rain very close, if not on top of, the 40 Acres. Hmmm....

I really do not trust the NAM much. It is good entertainment though.

[Andrew]

Ugh, I hate the NAM but I guess it's good entertainment tonight. My fantasy QB Brees is getting eaten alive so I need some amusement. I see at 84 hours the NAM has freezing rain very close, if not on top of, the 40 Acres. Hmmm....

I really do not trust the NAM much. It is good entertainment though.

The NAM isn't "TERRIBLE" at 24-48 hours out but is definitely one, that if an outlier, I will disregard. Interesting to note though that the 00z GFS is coming in faster and colder and is comparable to the 00z NAM