January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Some of the 12Z GFS winter weather charts are suggesting a bit of icing as the precip ends across SE Texas/SW Louisiana, if it were to verify. We will see.

[TxJohn]

Looks like Joe bastardi was right...January will be similar to 1994. He said all the models are painting a 1994 picture. Even though it's 5 days out...I doubt we'll be impacted. So far my hunches have been right this winter.

[srainhoutx]

LOL...The 12Z GFS dumps the Arctic air from Siberia into North America with a PNA Ridge building into Alaska and a cross Polar flow.

[srainhoutx]

The forecast from New Years Day into mid January is trending to that of what we saw in late November/early December where a –WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation)/-EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) regime where heights were high across the North Pacific/Gulf of Alaska due to the unusually warm waters across the Northern Pacific ushered in much colder air into the Western 2/3rds of North America and brought much below normal temperatures with a stormy pattern as strong/potent upper lows and a noisy sub tropical jet brought bouts of wintry weather across our Region. The PNA (Pacific- North American Oscillation) is forecast to relax back to a more neutral or slightly negative state which is what happen when we were very chilly early in the month of December where a persistent trough developed across the Great Basin/Inter Mountain West and into the Plains while the East Coast saw a stout Ridge and kept that area warm with above normal temperatures. The fly in the ointment is the AO (Arctic Oscillation) which is currently forecast to drop into negative territory which tends to have major effects of the location of the Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay. The Global ensembles have been hinting that the PV will shift back W and S, or to the West of Hudson Bay. Currently our source regions of Eastern Alaska/NW Territories of Western Canada are witnessing temperatures of -50 F or about 10-20 F colder than what we saw early in December. The telecommunication indices tend to raise an eyebrow as those indicators we look to suggest a more favorable pattern for a return of chilly weather into our Region.

There are also indications that the tropical Pacific may become a bit more active with convection and that tends to throw a wild card into the forecasting schemes when looking at the medium/long range forecast, but after a relaxation of the pattern in our part of the world, signals are growing that another pattern change may be developing that could have major impacts on the sensible weather we can expect in the early to mid January time frame.

12272013 00Z WPO 00zgfsensallwpo.gif (7.14 KiB) Viewed 12609 times

12272013 00Z EPO 00zgfsensallepo.gif (7.78 KiB) Viewed 12609 times

12272013 00Z PNA 00zgfsensallpna.gif (8.37 KiB) Viewed 12609 times

12272013 00Z AO 00zgfsensallao.gif (6.47 KiB) Viewed 12609 times

[TxJohn]

Lol I will believe it when I see it. When there's 25 degrees forecasted for the next day then I'll believe it's gonna get cold.

So far regardless of the trends the Euro and GFS keeps us in a boring pattern...our 7 fay forecast just changed this morning to warmer weather. We looking at a low of 30 degrees early next week now we'll be in the 40s and the coldest being 34.

[Portastorm]

Lol I will believe it when I see it. When there's 25 degrees forecasted for the next day then I'll believe it's gonna get cold.

So far regardless of the trends the Euro and GFS keeps us in a boring pattern...our 7 fay forecast just changed this morning to warmer weather. We looking at a low of 30 degrees early next week now we'll be in the 40s and the coldest being 34.

Well if that's the case then this longer-range thread probably isn't for you.

[djmike]

When do the models ever not come to a reasonable moderation? I'm so tired of getting hopes up then like clockwork, they modify to the usual warming trend. I hope this warming trend doesnt remain the rest of our winter.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Warming trend? Good lord guys... Even the short to mid term forecast doesn't show a warming trend... It shows average to below avg temps.

I don't think "trend" means what you think it means... The macro synoptic pattern is still very vulnerable to consistent cold fronts reaching our area whether they are extreme or just cool. If anything, these extended range runs just tell me that we will eventually see another arctic blast or two this winter and the pattern doesn't look to change anytime soon. My common sense tells me that this winter will end up as one of the cooler ones in recent memory and the STJ should bring us some welcome precip into mid January onward.

We are always fighting climatology here (the gulf) if you are expecting consistent sub 50 temps for highs. I'm just happy we've seen more sub 50 than 70 plus this December and I expect that to continue.

If you like really cold weather like me, I suggest you save up and travel to the mountains in the Winter because you just aren't going to see consistent freezing weather here in most winters including 1989 and 1983. After those cold snaps, the rest of those Winters were mild.

[Portastorm]

Very well said, MontgomeryCoWx!

Think you put it all into perspective quite well.

[Portastorm]

All of this talk of "warming trends" and such ... take a look at the last 30 days and just how cold, how below normal we have been!