January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[unome]

I like their experimental graphical forecast site, many different options - looks like Fri & Tue nights will get chilly here, per the minimum temperature option

http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/?z ... s=nautical

[TxJohn]

While we're on the edge of this cold blast....

Jacksonville, FL is forecasting a low of 26 and 24 on Monday and Tuesday (real feel in the mid to upper teens)....and Atlanta is forecasting a low of 9 degrees with a real feel temp of -9 on Monday. Now that's some cold weather

That's some beautiful weather...lol imo.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Hard Freeze Warning for Montgomery County and points further N and NE to the Lake Livingston Area.

[srainhoutx]

Coldest morning of the Winter season so far in NW Harris County. 28F at 4:00 AM and may drop another degree or two before sunrise. The overnight guidance has trended a bit colder with the Arctic front expect to push through late Saturday night into early Sunday. Temperatures may make a run into the low 20's early Monday and Tuesday. Hard Freeze Warnings may be needed for a large portion of SE Texas early next week.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Widespread freeze ongoing this morning across the area with lows down into the mid 20’s from Conroe to Huntsville and NE toward Lake Livingston. However a much bigger and stronger cold snap is on the way for early next week.

Upper level pattern will remain amplified through the period with high pressure ridging over the eastern Pacific into Alaska which will send another shot of very cold arctic air southward this weekend. Models continue to come in colder and colder with this air mass as more of the air mass pours southward down this plains before shifting eastward. This air mass means business and may set low temperature records in the northern plains which for January is very impressive…the forecast high temperature for Fargo, ND early next week is around -20F. Arctic boundary will plow through the region on Sunday with temperatures quickly falling into the 30’s and 40’s during the day. Luckily winds will stay up Sunday night, but still expect a widespread freeze and wind chill values into the 10’s and 20’s over the entire region.

Big concern is Monday night into Tuesday morning as arctic high builds overhead and winds go nearly calm under clear skies and very low dewpoints (8-16 degrees over the area). Expect temperatures to fall below freezing shortly after sunset and remain below freezing for up to 12-15 hours. Looks like lows could fall into the upper 10’s across our northern counties with low to mid 20’s along the US 59 corridor and even freezing at the coast. Will likely need a hard freeze warning for most areas for next Monday night as many areas will fall below 25 degrees for more than 2 hours. Tropical plants will need protection along with any exposed outdoor pipes and sprinkler systems. We are still a good bit of time before the event so temperatures could trend upward or downward over the weekend…but residents should take advantage of the “warmer” weather on Saturday to prepare for the upcoming very cold conditions.

Large arctic high begins to shift eastward next Wednesday allowing a moderation of temperatures and a return of moisture and possibly some low rain chances to the region.

[srainhoutx]

The 06Z GFS continued the trend with much below normal temps as well as just how deep this Arctic air mass appears to be. It is somewhat rare to the Polar Vortex displaced so far S into the Western Great Lakes Region. Also of note is the trend for a major Winter Storm to once again wrap up and head NE across Indiana/Ohio into Eastern Canada. Some locations from St Louis on NE may be measuring 6-10 inches of snow. The snow looks to extend as far S as the Texas Panhandle and across Oklahoma after the Artic front passes on Saturday.

01032013 06Z GFS gfs_T2ma_namer_13.png

01032013 06Z GFS gfs_z500a_namer_25.png

01032013 07Z prb_24hsnow_ge01_2014010312f054.gif

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Looks like it shifted a bit West.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like it shifted a bit West.

Perhaps a little. The Gulf of Alaska Ridge is a bit stronger with its ridging into interior Alaska and there is a bit more of a SE Ridge that was not shown in previous guidance, but mentioned as a possibility by the Climate Prediction Center a couple of days ago. Also we know that the MOS/MAV/MEX text guidance is not doing well at all with the magnitude of the cold air already as witnessed yesterday across the Great Lakes Region into the Mid Atlantic and NE where temperature were a good 10 to 20 degrees below what those text guidance were indicating as night time lows. I don't think we will see that large of a bust down here, but there is still a lot of uncertainty as to just how cold we could get as Jeff mentioned, so stay tuned and take those precautions to protect your property for an good 12-15 hour below freezing if need be.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'm wondering if we will see 17-19 degrees up here in Montgomery/Conroe area.... much like 2011.

[redneckweather]

This arctic coming down is comparable to drought weather during the summertime. As Ed would say, what good is dry cold weather if their isn't a little fun with it. Good for nothing, that's what. lol Thankfully it will be short lived. I'd rather have a deep Canadian front (high's around 30 and low's around 28) with a low riding over the cold up the Texas coast than this bitter cold dry nose bleed stuff coming down.

I'm with wxman, it's time for flip flop weather.

[Heat Miser]

I agree with redneck, Ed, and wxman. Bone dry cold, as redneck said "cold, dry, nosebleed stuff" is nothing but boring and extremely uncomfortable.
Can't wait for spring and humidity.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I don't mind warmer weather in Winter as long as its pouring rain and thunderstorms... otherwise, heat and humidity can die in a fiery hell.

I'm more uncomfortable at 100 than I am at 20, which is weird considering I'm not a large person. It's just the way I'm hardwired. I absoutely loathe May to September around here. LOATHE IT!

[Ptarmigan]

I don't mind warmer weather in Winter as long as its pouring rain and thunderstorms... otherwise, heat and humidity can die in a fiery hell.

I'm more uncomfortable at 100 than I am at 20, which is weird considering I'm not a large person. It's just the way I'm hardwired. I absoutely loathe May to September around here. LOATHE IT!

Same here. I do not mind warm winter as long it is a rainy one.

[Ptarmigan]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Strong cold front has progressed across the area this morning leaving cold and gusty north winds in its wake.

Temperatures have continued to fall this morning under strong cold air advection regime in progress with current readings in the low to mid 30’s up north and near 40 along the coast with N winds of 15-25mph and gusts to 40mph. In the past hour Galveston has gusted to 40mph. Low temperatures combined with the strong winds have driven wind chill values into the low 20’s over our northern counties. A wind advisory is in effect for the central and southern parts of the area today, but think this will be marginal with only a few gust to near 40mph mainly before noon. High level cirrus clouds continue to spill NNE across the area, but should gradually push southward leaving mainly clear skies by late afternoon. Not sure temperatures will warm much…and think the mid to upper 40’s this afternoon will be all we can manage under continued cold air advection and partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Quick hitting polar high will be situated over N TX tonight leading to a very cold night across the region. Dewpoints falling into the 10’s and 20’s by late this afternoon with clear skies and expected light winds will result in a widespread freeze across the area tonight. Lows will likely range from the mid 20’s up north to upper 20’s along US 59 to near freezing along the coast. Could see a few locations very near hard freeze criteria tonight especially in those usually cold locations (Conroe).

Polar high moves quickly eastward Friday with southerly wind returning. Clouds expand northward on Saturday and possibly enough moisture return for a few showers with temperatures warming back into the 60’s in a similar day to New Year’s Day.

Big question is how strong will be next front be on Sunday. Pretty good pool of very cold air currently over NW Canada and this appears poised to head SE into the US this weekend. Appears TX will be on the SW edge of this bitter cold air mass, but close enough to possibly produce some of the coldest weather since early 2011. Arctic boundary should pass across the region Sunday morning with temperatures quickly falling during the day on Sunday. GFS model is forecasting some “really” low dewpoints into the 10’s and 1’s across the region by next Monday and with mainly clear skies and a 1038mb arctic high centered over OK by Monday evening it could get fairly cold by Tuesday morning. Current GFS model guidance shows IAH falling to 25 Tuesday morning suggesting hard freeze criteria will be possible for a large part of the region NW of US 59 with lows possibly in the 10’s over our northern counties (GFS currently showing a 21 for College Station). Will have to keep a close eye on just how much of this cold air moves southward and potentially how cold it could get across the area early next week.

Climate:

2013 ended just as the previous four years with below average rainfall across much of the area. BUSH IAH ended the year with 38.84 inches of rainfall or 10.93 inches below normal. Hobby Airport ended 11.59 inches below normal and Galveston 11.52 inches below normal. College Station faired the best with a rainfall departure of only .71 of an inch below normal. I took a look back at the climate for the past 10 years at BUSH IAH and some impressive rainfall statistics emerged.

The normal annual rainfall for BUSH IAH is 49.77 inches:

Recorded rainfall by year:

2003: 45.76

2004: 65.06

2005: 41.21

2006: 57.86

2007: 65.52

2008: 53.00



2009: 47.01

2010: 42.72

2011: 24.57

2013: 42.32

2013: 38.84

The 5-yr total from 2003 to 2008 was 328.85 inches or 79.56 inches above normal for that 5-yr period

The 5-yr total from 2009 to 2013 was 195.46 inches or 53.39 inches below normal

Note that 2013 is the second driest year in the past 10 years only behind the severe drought year of 2011.

To put this into some perspective there is a 132.95 inch rainfall difference between the first 5-yr block and the second 5-yr block. The last 5 years have been very dry across the region and this dry pattern started after the landfall of Hurricane Ike in September 2008. However if you average out the rainfall over the past 10 years BUSH IAH is running a 26.17 inch rainfall surplus and this is due to the “very wet” years from 2003 to 2008 especially 2004 and 2007. A longer term trend in the climate signal would show a rainfall surplus for the area even though the last five years have been dry. It is also interesting to note that the rainfall deficit from 2009 to 2013 of 53.59 inches is over an entire year’s worth of rainfall missing (49.77 inches) where the period from 2003 to 2008 has a surplus of 79.56 inches or well over a year’s worth of rainfall on the positive side…so both astounding statistics effectively cancel each other out in the 10 year averaging of the rainfall.

On the temperature side of things 2013 ended slightly below normal (-.3 of a degree) and this coming off of the hottest year ever recorded for Houston in 2012 and previous very warm years in 2011 and 2010. Much of this cooling was in December which averaged almost 2-4 degrees below normal across the region…so yes it has been cold so far this winter.

The wet period from 2003 to 2008 is due to PDO going into a warm phase that lasted a few years from 2002 to 2007. The lack rain from 2009 to 2013 is from a cool PDO. Interesting to note that 2013 is dry, but 14 inches above 2011. At least, there was more rain in 2013 than in 2011.

This winter could be one of the coldest since 2009-2010. The freeze up north is quite a strong one, possibly the strongest in a while.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro trended a bit 'wetter' with the short wave dropping SE from the Pacific NW into the Southern Plains Saturday night that will usher in the first surge of colder air. There has been some concern via the HPC/WPC that the GFS and Canadian may not be handling this upper air disturbance as well as the Euro.

[srainhoutx]

For what its worth the 12Z Euro is about 6-12 hours slower eroding the cold air next Wednesday morning. Also the Euro has trended stronger with the cold core upper low cross Northern Mexico later next week as it heads E to near Del Rio. Also, very cold air is building again across Alaska as a very strong Gulf of Alaska Ridge begins to take shape once again. The Western US looks rather cool and unsettled with additional upper level energy moving inland along the Coast of California with a deep Western trough across the Great Basin.

[TxJohn]

Are we still looking towards a hard freeze in Houston next week?

[srainhoutx]

Are we still looking towards a hard freeze in Houston next week?

As of today it looks that way.

[jasons2k]

I finally tallied-up my rainfall totals --

Only .93" for December. I mostly missed-out on the rain/severe event on the 20/21st.

I had 43.87" for the year.

Will decide first thing tomorrow morning what to do about next week, but I didn't pack away my freeze sheets from this morning's cold. Looks like a busy couple of days ahead for me.

[txsnowmaker]

Just caught Ch. 13's weather report (Travis Herzog). While their forecast has 28 in Houston proper for Monday morning (and 24 Tuesday morning for Houston metro), he said that their model is showing a dump of snow in OK that is resulting in output indicating 24 F on Monday am and not getting to above freezing until Monday afternoon (the freeze is depicted to begin at 7 pm on Sunday night per that model run). He said he is not quite ready to bite the bullet on that just yet, but seemed to suggest that wrapping pipes inside the house would be warranted if that run proves correct. He also said that he may need to adjust downward Tuesday mornings forecast low of 24F for metro Houston because it may be too warm.

Can someone reiterate the guidelines for wrapping pipes indoors?