March: Comfortable Weekend Weather & Warming Trend

[unome]

updated moves it again http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

...SE TX TO MS DELTA/COAST REGIONS...TONIGHT...
ATTM IT STILL IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER TX CONVECTIVE REGIME WILL
1. RUN CONTINUOUSLY INTO LA/MS. SOME SWD BACKBUILDING IS PSBL INTO
SE TX AND SWRN LA...THOUGH DEAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER WAVE FARTHER N
AND RELATED LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SABINE
RIVER AREA MAY DISFAVOR THAT IDEA.
2. AS MOST CONVECTION-PERMITTING HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST...DEVELOP
AS SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS AND BECOME SFC-BASED CLOSER TO GULF COAST
OVER LA/MS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACCOMPANYING/WEAKLY CAPPED
LOW-LEVEL WAA ZONE THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...SUPERCELL-FAVORING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP SHEAR--E.G. EFFECTIVE SRH EXCEEDING 400 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-60 KT. THOUGH MID-60S DEW POINTS ARE
FCST...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER W...KEEPING
MLCAPE/MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY LIMIT VIGOR OF MANY UPDRAFTS...DESPITE
TECHNICALLY SFC-BASED CHARACTER OF EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS IN FCST
SOUNDINGS.

[BlueJay]

Our electric went out about 15 minutes ago...it's likely not weather related.

[Andrew]

Moisture stream from the south is really limiting daytime heating, BUT we are already in the upper 60's so that is a positive. We will see what things look like around 3-4pm when max daytime heating is around

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/mflash-vis.html

EDIT TO ADD: Interesting to note also that the NAM Hi-res keeps moisture around until the beginning of the work week as the shortwave amplifies as it rotates south.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/N TX...EXTREME SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151813Z - 152015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTN. SCTD SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A
WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 20Z.

DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD/DIFFUSE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W TX WITH MODEST SE/SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTENING/GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA. TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST TWO
HOURS AS LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS WRN PORTIONS OF
N TX. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/PRECIP WILL LIMIT OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER EXPECT A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPES OF
1000 - 1250 J/KG TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTN AS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
COMBINES WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER/LOCALLY GREATER HEATING.

LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES CENTRAL/NRN TX AND SRN OK...WITH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM
KFWS REFLECTS A STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR SPLITTING STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH
DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEATING/STEEPER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS/SRH ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LIMITING
THE OVERALL THREAT.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE
BY 20Z.

..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 03/15/2014


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

[Andrew]

First warning near Archer city (NW of DFW) :


896
WUUS54 KOUN 151905
SVROUN
TXC009-077-151945-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0001.140315T1905Z-140315T1945Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
205 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...
EASTERN ARCHER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 201 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF OLNEY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARCHER CITY...SCOTLAND...WINDTHORST...LAKE ARROWHEAD...BLUEGROVE
AND JOY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
&&

LAT...LON 3384 9852 3384 9849 3363 9809 3339 9857
3340 9885
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 221DEG 29KT 3346 9868

$$

MAXWELL

[srainhoutx]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for potions of N Central Texas and S Central Oklahoma until 10:00 PM CDT

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 29
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     220 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
     
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 29 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     
     OKC005-013-019-023-029-067-069-085-095-099-123-127-160300-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0029.140315T1920Z-140316T0300Z/
     
     OK 
     .    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ATOKA                BRYAN               CARTER              
     CHOCTAW              COAL                JEFFERSON           
     JOHNSTON             LOVE                MARSHALL            
     MURRAY               PONTOTOC            PUSHMATAHA          
     
     
     TXC009-035-049-059-077-083-085-093-097-113-119-121-133-139-143-
     147-181-193-217-221-231-237-251-257-277-333-337-363-367-397-417-
     425-429-439-497-503-160300-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0029.140315T1920Z-140316T0300Z/
     
     TX 
     .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ARCHER               BOSQUE              BROWN               
     CALLAHAN             CLAY                COLEMAN             
     COLLIN               COMANCHE            COOKE               
     DALLAS               DELTA               DENTON              
     EASTLAND             ELLIS               ERATH               
     FANNIN               GRAYSON             HAMILTON            
     HILL                 HOOD                HUNT                
     JACK                 JOHNSON             KAUFMAN             
     LAMAR                MILLS               MONTAGUE            
     PALO PINTO           PARKER              ROCKWALL            
     SHACKELFORD          SOMERVELL           STEPHENS            
     TARRANT              WISE                YOUNG               
     
     
     ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...TSA...

[Katdaddy]

Some slight clearing of overcast skies across Matagorda and Brazoria Counties in advance of developing storms to the SW. Some clearing also trying to occur in League. So far 0.23" for the day from earlier rains.

[Andrew]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN AND ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 152040Z - 152315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN
THREATS. TIMING OF ANY WW ISSUANCE IN THIS AREA IS UNCERTAIN...BUT
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...LOW 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE ERN
TX WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN
LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND AREAS OF ONGOING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A GENERAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. MORNING
RAOB DATA FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TX AND LAKE CHARLES LA SHOWED A
PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 850-700 MB...AND INDEED BASED
ON MOTION AND CHARACTER OF THE CONVECTION THUS FAR...ACTIVITY DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE BASED WITHIN THE SFC LAYER. THE STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT...BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NWRN TX WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SERN TX...BUT
WILL AFFECT ECNTRL THROUGH NERN TX THIS EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE BANDS MAY IN TIME
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NWD. MEANWHILE...THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 50 KT ACROSS ERN TX WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOUSTON VWP HAS
SHOWN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN 0-1 KM SHEAR DURING THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. WHILE WEAK INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN A LIMITING
FACTOR...INCREASING HODOGRAPH SIZE COINCIDENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DEEPENING CONVECTION POSES A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 03/15/2014


ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 30499601 31249698 32459624 33139519 32819463 31949461
30769476 30499601

[Paul Robison]

Severe weather on Sunday?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE TEXAS/ NEW MEXICO
BORDER THIS EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES NEAR
WICHITA FALLS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS STARTED
TO TEMPORARILY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING. A SQUALL LINE THAT HAD
FORMED IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AS OF CURRENT
BUT STILL COULD CLIP OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT. A
250MB 0Z HAND ANALYSIS REVEALS SOUTHEAST TEXAS CURRENTLY IN THE
CONVERGENT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE NEW NAM 12 SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS/ NEW MEXICO CONTINUING TO
SINK SOUTHWARDS THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE JET STREAM
ALSO SINKS SOUTHWARDS MOVING SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LEFT FRONT
QUAD (WILL ALSO GET LIFT FROM PVA). 850 AND 700MB HAND ANALYSIS
REVEALS DRIER AIR TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP UP INTO THE LOW. CURRENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA REVEAL
LITTLE TO NO CAP IN PLACE. THE NAM 12 REFLECTIVITY FIELD SHOWS
PRECIPITATION FORMING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT STARTING AT 7AM
TOMORROW MORNING IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
HRRR AND RAP. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN SINK SOUTHWARDS
AND HANG UP ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD LIFT... MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE HAVE RAISED POPS.

Anyone know?

[Katdaddy]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
831 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

TXZ200-213-214-227-237-238-161415-
CHAMBERS TX-FORT BEND TX-BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-HARRIS TX-
LIBERTY TX-
831 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY...CENTRAL
CHAMBERS...NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA...EASTERN FORT BEND...EASTERN
HARRIS AND NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

AT 830 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
TO 50 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 INCH AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...BAYTOWN...FRIENDSWOOD...LA
PORTE...DEER PARK...ALVIN...SOUTH HOUSTON...SEABROOK...WEBSTER...
MANVEL...KEMAH...CLEAR LAKE...SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...GREATER HOBBY
AREA...FRESNO...NASSAU BAY...TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE AND EL LAGO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
837 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
GALVESTON BAY...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT

* AT 837 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER AND SMALL HAIL...
LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON BAY...MOVING EAST AT 35 KNOTS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON BAY...BEACH CITY...TRINITY BAY...TABBS
BAY...BLACK DUCK BAY...MITCHELL BAY...UPPER SAN JACINTO BAY...SCOTT
BAY...CRYSTAL BAY AND BURNET BAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.

[mckinne63]

Raining now here in Stafford. Just heard a couple rumbles of thunder.

[srainhoutx]

Just emptied a whopping .37 of an inch of rain out of my rain gauge. Gusty NW winds and colder temperatures over night should see the inland areas drop to the 30's by sunrise tomorrow and Coastal Counties into the 40's. Onshore flow off the Gulf should resume on Tuesday with a W to SW flow aloft warming daytime temperatures quickly back to near 80.

[Rip76]

I've got to say, in the 12 years I've lived in this house, I don't know if it's ever rained harder in a brief period of time.

[Katdaddy]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
221 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTH TEXAS. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ALONG THE
COAST LATER INTO THE NIGHT.

TXZ176-177-195>199-210>214-226-227-235>238-170200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0013.140316T1921Z-140317T0200Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...
COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...
HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...LEAGUE CITY...MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...
MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...
PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WILLIS...WINNIE
221 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

* EVENT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
35 MPH.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 9PM CDT TONIGHT.

* IMPACT...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON AREA HIGHWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING ALONG EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS.

[BlueJay]

Temperature is dropping. We are down to 59. Winds are gusting...Brrr!

[Ptarmigan]

It is cold again and spring is almost here. Proof that winter is not over yet.

[Texaspirate11]

I AM SO OVER THIS COLD WEATHER.
AGAIN.

[BlueJay]

Our temperature is only 43 now, so maybe we won't dip down to the 30's after all. We'll see. (As Srain always says).
Happy St. Patrick's day to all. Think Green!

[srainhoutx]

Cloud cover and winds protected us overnight from dropping into the 30's. Amazing storm system that brought our weekend rains has dropped March record snow fall to the Mid Atlantic where location around the Washington DC area have received 8+ inches of snow breaking records that went back to 1942. Those with travel plans today to DCA, IAD and BWI may want to check with your airline before heading out.