April: Sunny and Dry Heading Into May
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Katdaddy
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A warm, cloudy, muggy, and windy day ahead for SE TX. A slight chance for showers tonight and again Friday while a 30% chance of thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and Thursday night as cold front moves across SE TX dropping highs back down to the mid to low 70s Friday through the weekend. We could see some strong to possibly severe storms tomorrow. First glance of the weekend looks to be potentially wet as the warm front pushes back N and coastal forms near Galveston Still several days out but rain chances of 40% may be increased. The big weather story today through Friday will be the severe threat as yesterday was just the beginning of active severe weather and storm chase days. Thursday will bring a significant severe weather event for the Southern Plains through the middle and lower MS Valley, TN Valley and OH Valley as the SPC has upgraded the slight risk area to a Moderate risk. Today's slight risk includes the Central US into the middle and lower MS Valley. Portions of NW and N TX in the slight risk today while tomorrow the eastern half TX will be included. If you are out storm chasing the next several days be safe.
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srainhoutx
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Morning Update from Jeff:
Fairly significant severe weather outbreak expected Thursday afternoon and evening from eastern TX into the mid-MS valley.
Potent upper level storm system over CA at the moment will move eastward today and then eject NE into the plains on Thursday. A large area of warm and humid Gulf air is moving northward over the eastern half of TX as far north as Chicago and this will continue for the next 24-36 hours. Dewpoints have increased into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s over the region overnight and while this is above nearshore water temperatures gusty south winds have helped to keep sea fog at a minimum thus far.
As the upper level storm system ejects into the plains on Thursday a strong sub-tropical jet will core across TX. At the surface the dryline over west TX will surge eastward with a cold front overtaking that boundary by late afternoon. Cooler air aloft and lift with the upper level system will graze SE TX with the best forcing aimed more toward the ARKLATX region. While parameters are generally favorable for thunderstorm development across SE TX….the infamous cap will once again have to be dealt with and the question becomes will it weaken and possibly be broken. Favorable position of the jet dynamics aloft look to help weaken the capping, but the cooling with the upper air disturbance and main lift looks to pass just north of our area. Other big question mark is how much marine influence will be had across the area with low clouds and possible sea fog and if any sun will help heat the surface and erode the cap. As usual these questions will not be answered until the event is underway….much like last Friday.
If the cap does break shear and instability look favorable for some severe storms and the best location for this will be along and north of a line from Hempstead to The Woodlands to Liberty and northward where a more significant threat for severe weather and tornadoes is likely. Main threats look to be large hail and wind damage. Will review the severe threat again Thursday morning.
Cool front passes early Friday only to stall across the nearshore waters. Another strong system in this fast progressive flow approaches the area over the weekend and helps pull the front back northward as a warm front. Parameters appear to be coming together for a round of strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall on Sunday and possibly into Monday as a coastal low forms and moves up the TX coast. Thus far this spring models have been too aggressive with rain chances so will hold back a bit on the weekend event to see how things look in the models over the next few days.
Marine:
Strong onshore flow will continue until Friday and this will begin to push already elevated tides higher. Tides are currently running about .5 of a foot above normal levels and continued strong onshore flow will push these levels into the 1.0-1.5 foot above normal range by late Thursday. Not expecting any issues at this levels, but swells will be break up the beaches on the Gulf side. Could have more tidal issues late in the weekend into early next week depending on just how strong the coastal low wraps and exactly how it tracks along the coast.
Day 2 (Thursday) Severe Weather Outlook:
Fairly significant severe weather outbreak expected Thursday afternoon and evening from eastern TX into the mid-MS valley.
Potent upper level storm system over CA at the moment will move eastward today and then eject NE into the plains on Thursday. A large area of warm and humid Gulf air is moving northward over the eastern half of TX as far north as Chicago and this will continue for the next 24-36 hours. Dewpoints have increased into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s over the region overnight and while this is above nearshore water temperatures gusty south winds have helped to keep sea fog at a minimum thus far.
As the upper level storm system ejects into the plains on Thursday a strong sub-tropical jet will core across TX. At the surface the dryline over west TX will surge eastward with a cold front overtaking that boundary by late afternoon. Cooler air aloft and lift with the upper level system will graze SE TX with the best forcing aimed more toward the ARKLATX region. While parameters are generally favorable for thunderstorm development across SE TX….the infamous cap will once again have to be dealt with and the question becomes will it weaken and possibly be broken. Favorable position of the jet dynamics aloft look to help weaken the capping, but the cooling with the upper air disturbance and main lift looks to pass just north of our area. Other big question mark is how much marine influence will be had across the area with low clouds and possible sea fog and if any sun will help heat the surface and erode the cap. As usual these questions will not be answered until the event is underway….much like last Friday.
If the cap does break shear and instability look favorable for some severe storms and the best location for this will be along and north of a line from Hempstead to The Woodlands to Liberty and northward where a more significant threat for severe weather and tornadoes is likely. Main threats look to be large hail and wind damage. Will review the severe threat again Thursday morning.
Cool front passes early Friday only to stall across the nearshore waters. Another strong system in this fast progressive flow approaches the area over the weekend and helps pull the front back northward as a warm front. Parameters appear to be coming together for a round of strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall on Sunday and possibly into Monday as a coastal low forms and moves up the TX coast. Thus far this spring models have been too aggressive with rain chances so will hold back a bit on the weekend event to see how things look in the models over the next few days.
Marine:
Strong onshore flow will continue until Friday and this will begin to push already elevated tides higher. Tides are currently running about .5 of a foot above normal levels and continued strong onshore flow will push these levels into the 1.0-1.5 foot above normal range by late Thursday. Not expecting any issues at this levels, but swells will be break up the beaches on the Gulf side. Could have more tidal issues late in the weekend into early next week depending on just how strong the coastal low wraps and exactly how it tracks along the coast.
Day 2 (Thursday) Severe Weather Outlook:
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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wxman57
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I miss warm TX. In San Diego all week at the AMS tropical conference. It's 1pm and 59F with a 20-30 mph wind. COLD! And if that's not bad enough, they have the AC on high in all the conference rooms. Freezing outside and colder in the conf. rooms. In my hotel room for lunch with the heater on high trying to thaw out.
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srainhoutx
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Active weather day ahead and likely well NE of Metro Houston with severe storms across NE Texas into Arkansas and Missouri. I am somewhat doubtful the capping inversion will actually fully erode across Central and SE Texas, but isolated strong to severe storms may be possible from near Austin to near Conroe and on NE. If storms fire near Austin along the dryline later this afternoon, then there may be a chance they could make it into portions of SE Texas. Another chance of rain may come with the actual cold front over night, but again the stout cap may well keep things in check.
A better chance of rain looks likely late Saturday into Sunday as a Coastal Low develops and the front retreats N. The best chance of heavy rain appears to be across Louisiana at this time. A secondary weak front should push offshore Monday ending any rain chances and a dry NW flow aloft sets up for next week.
A better chance of rain looks likely late Saturday into Sunday as a Coastal Low develops and the front retreats N. The best chance of heavy rain appears to be across Louisiana at this time. A secondary weak front should push offshore Monday ending any rain chances and a dry NW flow aloft sets up for next week.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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Morning Update from Jeff:
Period of active weather expected across the region today through the weekend.
Powerful storm system lifting into the plains this morning will result in a significant severe/tornado outbreak mainly north and northeast of SE TX. Main focus locally will be if/when the cap breaks this afternoon and where any severe storms may track. Models are not in very good agreement on if the cap is broken this afternoon with the NAM saying yes and the GFS saying no. Moisture continues to surge northward off the Gulf with muggy 70 degree dewpoints in most areas while a dry line is starting to move into central TX and will mix eastward today while forcing from the upper level storm spreads across TX. Sub-tropical jet stream is positioned overhead and becomes increasingly favorable for lift this afternoon as the dryline noses into our western counties. If we can get a few breaks in the overcast today and warm the surface temperatures into the 80’s the cap may be eroded enough to allow severe storms to develop on the dryline in the region from NW of College Station to just east of Austin. These storms would generally move eastward and affect our northern counties late this afternoon into the evening hours.
A cold front moves across the area later this evening adding additional lift and also occurs when the splitting jet stream structure aloft is greatest. Looks like a line of showers and thunderstorms may be possible along the front, but think the better severe threat will be from the late afternoon into the early evening hours and mainly north of HWY 105. Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. Think the SPC slight risk area is overdone SW of Houston as capping in this area looks just too much to overcome.
Weekend:
Parameters look to be coming together for a fairly active weekend as the old frontal boundary begins to return northward and surges deep tropical moisture into the area. PWS are forecast to rapidly increase into the 1.3-1.5 in range between 600am-noon of Saturday while strong lifting begins over the frontal boundary. Expect showers to develop and spread inland from the coast Saturday afternoon. Another strong upper air disturbance approaches the area on Sunday forcing a surface low to form on the old frontal boundary over the Gulf waters. Will need to watch this boundary very carefully as it could lift just enough northward to bring parts of the area into the warm sector and greatly enhance a severe weather threat on Sunday. Otherwise looks like a fairly decent widespread rain event from Saturday evening into Monday. Coastal surface low should track either along or just offshore of the coast at some point late Sunday. Will need to watch the Sunday period closely for potential for any cell training of bands with such a moisture laden air mass in place as rainfall rates could become heavy. At this time it appears an average of .50 of an inch of rainfall is possible over much of the area with isolated totals upwards of 1-2 inches especially toward the coast. Will have to define this better over the next 24-36 hours.
Marine:
Strong onshore flow feeding moisture northward will continue today. Tides are running .5-1.0 feet above normal in the bays and on the Gulf beaches. This flow has been in place now for over 48 hours and is building long period swells which are now reaching the Gulf facing beaches. Expect tides to continue to run in the .5-1.0 foot above normal range until the cold front crosses the coast Friday morning. Will probably need to watch tides again by late Sunday depending on where and just how strong the coastal low becomes as E to ESE winds are a much more favorable tidal run-up direction for the upper TX coast.
Day 1 (today) Severe Weather Outlook):
Period of active weather expected across the region today through the weekend.
Powerful storm system lifting into the plains this morning will result in a significant severe/tornado outbreak mainly north and northeast of SE TX. Main focus locally will be if/when the cap breaks this afternoon and where any severe storms may track. Models are not in very good agreement on if the cap is broken this afternoon with the NAM saying yes and the GFS saying no. Moisture continues to surge northward off the Gulf with muggy 70 degree dewpoints in most areas while a dry line is starting to move into central TX and will mix eastward today while forcing from the upper level storm spreads across TX. Sub-tropical jet stream is positioned overhead and becomes increasingly favorable for lift this afternoon as the dryline noses into our western counties. If we can get a few breaks in the overcast today and warm the surface temperatures into the 80’s the cap may be eroded enough to allow severe storms to develop on the dryline in the region from NW of College Station to just east of Austin. These storms would generally move eastward and affect our northern counties late this afternoon into the evening hours.
A cold front moves across the area later this evening adding additional lift and also occurs when the splitting jet stream structure aloft is greatest. Looks like a line of showers and thunderstorms may be possible along the front, but think the better severe threat will be from the late afternoon into the early evening hours and mainly north of HWY 105. Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. Think the SPC slight risk area is overdone SW of Houston as capping in this area looks just too much to overcome.
Weekend:
Parameters look to be coming together for a fairly active weekend as the old frontal boundary begins to return northward and surges deep tropical moisture into the area. PWS are forecast to rapidly increase into the 1.3-1.5 in range between 600am-noon of Saturday while strong lifting begins over the frontal boundary. Expect showers to develop and spread inland from the coast Saturday afternoon. Another strong upper air disturbance approaches the area on Sunday forcing a surface low to form on the old frontal boundary over the Gulf waters. Will need to watch this boundary very carefully as it could lift just enough northward to bring parts of the area into the warm sector and greatly enhance a severe weather threat on Sunday. Otherwise looks like a fairly decent widespread rain event from Saturday evening into Monday. Coastal surface low should track either along or just offshore of the coast at some point late Sunday. Will need to watch the Sunday period closely for potential for any cell training of bands with such a moisture laden air mass in place as rainfall rates could become heavy. At this time it appears an average of .50 of an inch of rainfall is possible over much of the area with isolated totals upwards of 1-2 inches especially toward the coast. Will have to define this better over the next 24-36 hours.
Marine:
Strong onshore flow feeding moisture northward will continue today. Tides are running .5-1.0 feet above normal in the bays and on the Gulf beaches. This flow has been in place now for over 48 hours and is building long period swells which are now reaching the Gulf facing beaches. Expect tides to continue to run in the .5-1.0 foot above normal range until the cold front crosses the coast Friday morning. Will probably need to watch tides again by late Sunday depending on where and just how strong the coastal low becomes as E to ESE winds are a much more favorable tidal run-up direction for the upper TX coast.
Day 1 (today) Severe Weather Outlook):
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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I do not agree with this at all. One CRP and LCH are closer to the Gulf than IAH and certainly for the Northern Half of the Region. U of H may offer a bit better solution for inside the 610 Loop, but I still believe that A & M offers bit more realistic depiction although not perfect to what we can expect from an upper air sounding locally ~vs~ CRP or LCH.Ed Mahmoud wrote:HGX mentions an Aggie sounding today. CLL is close to useless for predicting storms in Houston, Almost as far as LCH, albeit in another direction.
Pretty obvious that they (HGX) are being realistic and expect no severe weather except far Northern suburbs.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Man, another baseball washout. The kids can't get a weekend break... Should have played last weekend.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
442 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 530 AM CDT
* AT 441 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
SOUTH OF RIVERSIDE TO NEAR WILLIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...WILLIS...LIVINGSTON...SHEPHERD...PANORAMA VILLAGE...
ONALASKA...NEW WAVERLY...COLDSPRING...POINT BLANK...GOODRICH...
NORTH CLEVELAND...SEVEN OAKS...LAKE LIVINGSTON STATE PARK...WEST
LIVINGSTON...EVERGREEN...LEGGETT AND OAKHURST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
442 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 530 AM CDT
* AT 441 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
SOUTH OF RIVERSIDE TO NEAR WILLIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...WILLIS...LIVINGSTON...SHEPHERD...PANORAMA VILLAGE...
ONALASKA...NEW WAVERLY...COLDSPRING...POINT BLANK...GOODRICH...
NORTH CLEVELAND...SEVEN OAKS...LAKE LIVINGSTON STATE PARK...WEST
LIVINGSTON...EVERGREEN...LEGGETT AND OAKHURST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Not a drop here.
I used to live about a mile from that baseball stadium in Frisco when it first opened. That place went from nothing to major suburb overnight.
I used to live about a mile from that baseball stadium in Frisco when it first opened. That place went from nothing to major suburb overnight.
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srainhoutx
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Not a drop of rain overnight. The pollen is the worse I've seen in years and is giving me fits. The overnight guidance continues to be bullish of a potent short wave to our W and a Coastal trough developing as the frontal boundary lifts N as a warm front. It appears the best chance of showers and some isolated storms may be on Sunday into early Monday. Fingers crossed!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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0.82" "IMBY" . Lots of FUNder. 
I was just saying that to a friend and he said "we get this every year." I don't recall it being this bad! I thought our pool was having an algae problem, than realized it was all pollen at the bottom. I washed my car on Wednesday, by Thursday it was coated again! Going to rinse it off today, though I know it's a futile effort.srainhoutx wrote:Not a drop of rain overnight. The pollen is the worse I've seen in years and is giving me fits. The overnight guidance continues to be bullish of a potent short wave to our W and a Coastal trough developing as the frontal boundary lifts N as a warm front. It appears the best chance of showers and some isolated storms may be on Sunday into early Monday. Fingers crossed!
Too funny!Kludge wrote:0.82" "IMBY" . Lots of FUNder.
I'll be outside early in the morning until about noon near Sealy. Do I need a jacket or sweater?