April: Sunny and Dry Heading Into May
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Katdaddy
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Cold front stationary offshore will begin moving N as a warm front this morning. Some light rain or drizzle may develop this afternoon. A strong upper level disturbance and coastal trough will lead to high rain chances overnight and Sunday morning. A few storms could possibly become strong. Most of the rain and thunderstorms should push out of SE TX around noon tomorrow.
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jojotheidiotclown
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When does the warmup start? This spring has been strange. Too cold. Next week has lows damn near in the 40's.
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Paul Robison
Does any one if the atmospheric dynamics support any severe thunderstorms for tonight and Sunday?
Models seeming overdone on precip thus far...same thing all winter. They really go to town over C LA where a good bit a cell training looks possible on the warm front which surges inland...that could be a bit high also given the current lack of development off the LA coast compared to what the models are suggesting should be ongoing.
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Paul Robison
[quote="Ed Mahmoud"]
Shape of 6 hour precip on WxBell PPV Euro could suggest very isolated supercells travelling ESE, which would be favorable for severe, but not a widespread beneficial rainfall. I-10 and South are under the center of it. 5 days out, and not good agreement with the GFS, it is a hope, not an expectation. Euro WxBell PPV ensembles nowhere near as cheerful on precip.
I'll quote this post in a page or two, but 0Z and 12Z GFS will hotlink below. Fantasy land GFS has somerain, at this point, but is pretty depressing.
Are you saying, Ed, that Houstonians should brace for severe t-storms to blast through the area in six hours?
Shape of 6 hour precip on WxBell PPV Euro could suggest very isolated supercells travelling ESE, which would be favorable for severe, but not a widespread beneficial rainfall. I-10 and South are under the center of it. 5 days out, and not good agreement with the GFS, it is a hope, not an expectation. Euro WxBell PPV ensembles nowhere near as cheerful on precip.
I'll quote this post in a page or two, but 0Z and 12Z GFS will hotlink below. Fantasy land GFS has somerain, at this point, but is pretty depressing.
Are you saying, Ed, that Houstonians should brace for severe t-storms to blast through the area in six hours?
OK. When is it going to rain? NWS for Beaumont has had 70-80% all day and nothing has transpired. Its actually been a nice sunny breezy day here. Im afraid models have overdone all these rain events. Oh well...ready for a good thunderstorm. 
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Paul Robison
They sure have overdone them. Even new NAMHIRES doesn't seem sold on the idea of heavy/severe rain events here in the Houston metro. But then, I could be wrong....djmike wrote:OK. When is it going to rain? NWS for Beaumont has had 70-80% all day and nothing has transpired. Its actually been a nice sunny breezy day here. Im afraid models have overdone all these rain events. Oh well...ready for a good thunderstorm.
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srainhoutx
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The warm front is retreating N and currently is near Coastal Texas and Louisiana. Storms are firing quickly well N of the warm front and are elevated and may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts across portions of Eastern Texas and Western/Central Louisiana. The Watch currently does not include Harris County as well as Metro Austin and Dallas/Ft Worth. That said the Flash Flood Watch may need to be extended a bit further W into our Northern Areas if training storms develop this morning as the potent upper level disturbance approaches from New Mexico. Over running moisture is streaming N from the Gulf to our W across the Middle Texas Coast. It appears a Coastal Low may be developing near Matagorda Bay as well.
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srainhoutx
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Update from Jeff:
SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch effective until 200pm for the northern ½ of SE T.
Slow moving upper level trough over New Mexico is spreading increasing lift across both a surface warm front over the middle and upper TX coastal waters and a 850mb front located from near Austin to Liberty. Elevated severe thunderstorms producing large hail have developed in the last hour from north of Huntsville ESE to San Jacinto County. Surface low pressure will be re-developing ESE from the Big Bend region toward the middle TX coast by early this afternoon and helping to surge the low level warm front northward to along a line from Victoria to Tomball to Livingston. Air mass south of this front is very moist with dewpoints in the lowe 70’s.
For the next 3-6 hours expect elevated thunderstorms above the near surface cool layer to continue to develop mainly along and north of HWY 105 and move northward and northeast out of the area. Think the best severe threat for large hail will be north of HWY 105 and really north of a line from Madisonville to Lake Livingston. South of this line scattered showers, light rain, drizzle, and sea fog will spread northward from the Gulf. Offshore platforms indicate sea fog bank has once again formed as low 70 degree dewpoints spread across mid to upper 60 degree water temperatures. Winds are fairly gusty over the Gulf waters and should only increase today as the surface low develops east of Corpus Christi, so not overly confident that sea fog will be widespread.
This afternoon:
Surface warm front moving northward will bring a warm sector moist and increasingly unstable air mass into the southeastern ½ of the region. Low clouds and some fog will likely prevent much surface heating of the warm sector and jet dynamics aloft look only marginally favorable for good lift. SE TX lies near the eastern edge of warm mid level temperatures being advecting eastward from the higher terrain of NE MX (capping). Looking at both the HRRR and TX TECH meso modeling really does not show much development in the warm sector this afternoon as the surface low moves nearly directly over the area. Appears surface temperatures will need to warm into the mid to upper 70’s to break the capping inversion and this is likely a bit of a stretch given the overcast and light rain/drizzle that will be found in the warm sector. SPC forecasters are a little more aggressive with the threat for surface based severe weather in the warm sector this afternoon…but some many events recently have seen similar set ups with no convective results.
The concern is that if the cap does break favorable low level shear and moderate amounts of instability would support all severe threats south of the warm front (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes). Low level shear will be maximized along the warm frontal boundary and such boundaries are notorious for producing supercells with tornadoes. Will have to watch trends and the warm front very closely this afternoon for convective development.
Heavy Rainfall:
Moisture levels will rapidly increase today, but best forcing and training cells look to be focused over far east TX into LA and MS where 3-7 inches will be common. Most of SE TX will be at the far SW edge of a more significant flood/flash flood threat over LA today and this threat has shifted more northward and northeast overnight. Would not be surprised to see some 1-2 inch totals quickly in the stronger storms and the best area for this will be across those northern counties this morning where elevated convection is showing some signs of banding and brief training:
SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch effective until 200pm for the northern ½ of SE T.
Slow moving upper level trough over New Mexico is spreading increasing lift across both a surface warm front over the middle and upper TX coastal waters and a 850mb front located from near Austin to Liberty. Elevated severe thunderstorms producing large hail have developed in the last hour from north of Huntsville ESE to San Jacinto County. Surface low pressure will be re-developing ESE from the Big Bend region toward the middle TX coast by early this afternoon and helping to surge the low level warm front northward to along a line from Victoria to Tomball to Livingston. Air mass south of this front is very moist with dewpoints in the lowe 70’s.
For the next 3-6 hours expect elevated thunderstorms above the near surface cool layer to continue to develop mainly along and north of HWY 105 and move northward and northeast out of the area. Think the best severe threat for large hail will be north of HWY 105 and really north of a line from Madisonville to Lake Livingston. South of this line scattered showers, light rain, drizzle, and sea fog will spread northward from the Gulf. Offshore platforms indicate sea fog bank has once again formed as low 70 degree dewpoints spread across mid to upper 60 degree water temperatures. Winds are fairly gusty over the Gulf waters and should only increase today as the surface low develops east of Corpus Christi, so not overly confident that sea fog will be widespread.
This afternoon:
Surface warm front moving northward will bring a warm sector moist and increasingly unstable air mass into the southeastern ½ of the region. Low clouds and some fog will likely prevent much surface heating of the warm sector and jet dynamics aloft look only marginally favorable for good lift. SE TX lies near the eastern edge of warm mid level temperatures being advecting eastward from the higher terrain of NE MX (capping). Looking at both the HRRR and TX TECH meso modeling really does not show much development in the warm sector this afternoon as the surface low moves nearly directly over the area. Appears surface temperatures will need to warm into the mid to upper 70’s to break the capping inversion and this is likely a bit of a stretch given the overcast and light rain/drizzle that will be found in the warm sector. SPC forecasters are a little more aggressive with the threat for surface based severe weather in the warm sector this afternoon…but some many events recently have seen similar set ups with no convective results.
The concern is that if the cap does break favorable low level shear and moderate amounts of instability would support all severe threats south of the warm front (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes). Low level shear will be maximized along the warm frontal boundary and such boundaries are notorious for producing supercells with tornadoes. Will have to watch trends and the warm front very closely this afternoon for convective development.
Heavy Rainfall:
Moisture levels will rapidly increase today, but best forcing and training cells look to be focused over far east TX into LA and MS where 3-7 inches will be common. Most of SE TX will be at the far SW edge of a more significant flood/flash flood threat over LA today and this threat has shifted more northward and northeast overnight. Would not be surprised to see some 1-2 inch totals quickly in the stronger storms and the best area for this will be across those northern counties this morning where elevated convection is showing some signs of banding and brief training:
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Member: National Weather Association
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That would be really something if the surface low goes almost directly overhead and we get nothing. What else does it take to make some rain around here, geez?
Interesting morning discussion. Especially this:
Lots of satellite/radar watching today.AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1049 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
IF...AND ITS A BIG IF...WE CAN GET ENOUGH HEATING THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
Judging by surface obs, the low has moved from just west of Corpus to NW of Victoria. That means it's tracking NNE. The front extends eastward from there to just north of Wharton to about Pearland & then offshore.
We cant even get rain even when all the ingriedients come together! So tired of this "northern counties" or "north/northeast of here" or "hwy 105 northward". This better not be a sign of things to come.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
What a bust here in Stafford! Had some drizzle, than actually had a real rain shower that stopped after about 2 minutes. 
Oh heck yeah...several nice downpours today. 0.32" since 5 AM. And as I write this, some training seems to be setting up, so maybe a good bit more is on the way.BlueJay wrote:Radar seems to indicate that somebody is getting rain. How about you Kludge?
Just drove through some drizzle (yeah!) but nothing measurable...yet.
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BlueJay
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I agree Ed. I was reviewing the April 2011 discussions and recalling that the drought of 2011 was becoming a reality for us at that time. Except that we had extremely high temps and low humidity/dew points the capping and just missed showers seem to be the same now as in April 2011.
Happy to hear you got some rain action Kludge!
Happy to hear you got some rain action Kludge!