May: IAH Does Not Reach 90 During May. 1970 Mark Achieved

[Andrew]

Yea models are having a tremendous amount of trouble with this upper level system as it slowly ejects east. A lot of this disturbances rotating around are having no trouble at all in sustaining themselves as they head east. I feel like we will see some impressive rain totals when it is all said and done. I think tomorrow could be concerning with rain totals as the expected shortwave should be located over North Texas. Might not get much of a break going into the overnight hours tonight.

[Rip76]

That's a lot of moisture headed East down I-10.

[srainhoutx]

Clearly the Central Texas complex has developed into a meso vortex as surface obs W of the convective complex have NW winds and strong inflow across SE Texas from the SE should keep the system organized well into the afternoon. That suggests numerous outflow boundaries will reside across Central and SE Texas with cold pooling aloft. Keep an eye for another storm complex developing across the Permian Basin and marching SE as well as additional development across the Rio Grande Valley this evening.

[Andrew]

Clearly the Central Texas complex has developed into a meso vortex as surface obs W of the convective complex have NW winds and strong inflow across SE Texas from the SE should keep the system organized well into the afternoon. That suggests numerous outflow boundaries will reside across Central and SE Texas with cold pooling aloft. Keep an eye for another storm complex developing across the Permian Basin and marching SE as well as additional development across the Rio Grande Valley this evening.

Same type of setup as last night. Really hard to accurately predict those meso complexes. Places just west and southwest of houston should get hit the hardest as the complex continues to head ENE.

[Portastorm]

We've had some minor street flooding in a few parts of town (Austin) but nothing extraordinary. Received about 1.3" of rain at my place in SW Austin. Overall the metro area seems to have received anywhere from an inch to an inch and a half from this mesoscale system.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Global guidance appears to be in good agreement regard the movement of the upper low/trough into the Eastern half of Texas and the Western half of Louisiana before filling in and warming. The guidance continues to advertise a multi day rainfall event, heavy at times extending into upcoming weekend. Blocky patterns such as this tend to be efficient rain makers and as we are seeing the Bexar County as well as the Victoria area, the ground is saturating rather quickly and the bodes well for flash flooding as the daily storms move across the Region.

[Ptarmigan]

The 12Z Global guidance appears to be in good agreement regard the movement of the upper low/trough into the Eastern half of Texas and the Western half of Louisiana before filling in and warming. The guidance continues to advertise a multi day rainfall event, heavy at times extending into upcoming weekend. Blocky patterns such as this tend to be efficient rain makers and as we are seeing the Bexar County as well as the Victoria area, the ground is saturating rather quickly and the bodes well for flash flooding as the daily storms move across the Region.

Cutoff lows usually cause flooding events in Texas. They can happen in any season, but summer sees the highest chance of cutoff lows. That setup led to flooding in December 1913, December 1935, June 1973, December 1991, June 2004, and June-July 2007.

[Ptarmigan]

This could be the wettest week in quite some time.

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
216 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 216 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR WHARTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHWESTERN ROSENBERG...WHARTON...NEEDVILLE...EAST BERNARD...
BEASLEY...KENDLETON AND HUNGERFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

[srainhoutx]

There was certainly some mid level rotation with that cell. Western Harris County is next in line. Also new storms firing near Victoria as the SW inflow increases with the MCV. Also note worthy that water vapor imagery indicates the Upper Low is beginning to drop ESE. If that trend continues, it could bring the warming U/L much closer to Central/SE Texas later this week. We need to keep and eye on a potential hybrid warm core low over the NW Gulf should this system sit and remain trapped in the stagnant flow aloft.

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
246 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 245 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO OVER
BEASLEY...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROSENBERG. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP
AT ANY TIME. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS DANGEROUS STORM MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER
WHARTON.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...PECAN GROVE...FULSHEAR...PLEAK...BEASLEY...
CUMINGS AND GREATWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

[srainhoutx]

Katy, Bear Creek, Copperfield, Jersey Village and Belt Way 8 W and N heads up. A wall cloud is obseverd with this cell and it is cycling up and down. Rotation continues as well as high precipitation rates.

[Katdaddy]

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
316 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 316 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER CUMINGS...OR NEAR RICHMOND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHERN SUGAR LAND...NORTHWESTERN ROSENBERG...KATY...RICHMOND...
ELDRIDGE / WEST OAKS...MISSION BEND...TOWN WEST...PECAN GROVE...
SOUTHWESTERN ADDICKS PARK TEN...FULSHEAR...CINCO RANCH...ALIEF...
FOUR CORNERS...CUMINGS...WESTCHASE...SHARPSTOWN...WESTWOOD...BRIAR
FOREST AND MEMORIAL.

[kayci]

In Brazoria Co. (Alvin) will I be impacted?????

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Slow moving upper level storm system to bring several rounds of heavy to excessive rainfall to the region with the threat for flooding increasing.

 

Thus far today alone up to 6 inches of rain has fallen in Jackson County with widespread 2-3 inches over much of Wharton, Jackson, and western Fort Bend County. The dry air mass over the region yesterday has been replaced with a moist air mass allowing central TX slow moving thunderstorm complexes to work their way into our region.

 

This setup will continue for the next 48-72 hours with the potential for widespread and at times significant rainfall across the region. Will go with widespread 2-4 inch amounts, but as seen today alone some of these amounts have already occurred so the expected QPF is likely on the low side. Would not be surprised due to the slow storm motions and threat for cell training to see amounts upwards of 10 inches by the end of the week, but where this may happen is nothing short of a guess at this point.

 

Flash Flood Watches will likely be required possibly as soon as Tuesday.

[kayci]

In Brazoria Co. (Alvin) will I be impacted?????

Again, will Brazoria Co. be affected? Or will we be missed????

[unome]

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... do%20watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

TORNADO WATCH 189 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC007-025-039-057-071-157-167-175-199-201-245-291-321-339-361-
391-270200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0189.140526T2045Z-140527T0200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARANSAS BEE BRAZORIA
CALHOUN CHAMBERS FORT BEND
GALVESTON GOLIAD HARDIN
HARRIS JEFFERSON LIBERTY
MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY ORANGE
REFUGIO
$$

[unome]

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC157-201-473-262130-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0029.140526T2043Z-140526T2130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 342 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER CINCO RANCH...OR NEAR
MISSION BEND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KATY...RICHMOND...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER
HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...ELDRIDGE
/ WEST OAKS...SPRING BRANCH WEST...MISSION BEND...SPRING VALLEY...
PECAN GROVE...ADDICKS PARK TEN...NORTHWESTERN MEMORIAL PARK...
HEDWIG VILLAGE...FULSHEAR...HILSHIRE VILLAGE...CINCO RANCH...
CARVERDALE AND BRIAR FOREST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2960 9575 2970 9588 3002 9578 2980 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 218DEG 14KT 2971 9574

$$

39

http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/p ... loop.shtml

[srainhoutx]

In Brazoria Co. (Alvin) will I be impacted?????

kayci, Brazoria County as well as all of SETexas need to keep p with the latest weather trends. I have been busy activating several new member accounts as more folks join our Region Weather Community.

[Katdaddy]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAIN
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
BEEVILLE TEXAS TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).