2014 E Pacific Tropical Discussions & Analysis

[srainhoutx]

The EPAC appears to be getting its act together, tropically speaking. 92E looks to have a legitimate shot at becoming TS Amanda in the next couple of days and there is also another disturbance developing to the SE as well.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Visible satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are
becoming better organized near an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves northwestward to west-northwestward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Berg

[unome]

that was quick !

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#AMANDA

HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014

Amanda has continued to rapidly intensify over the past few hours,
with the cloud pattern now featuring a ring of very cold cloud tops
surrounding an eye that has quickly cleared out and warmed in the
last several infrared images. The latest Dvorak satellite estimates
include a T5.5/102 kt from SAB at 00Z, a T6.0/115 kt from a special
02Z TAFB classification, and 92 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT at 0200Z.
Based on a blend of these, the initial intensity has been set to 100
kt, and this could be conservative given the trends seen in the
latest infrared images.

Additional intensification appears likely over the next 12 to 24
hours. The NHC forecast in the short term is above all of the
guidance, but is closest to the FSU Superensemble. By 36 hours,
steady weakening is expected to begin as Amanda encounters
increasing shear ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level trough and
SSTs cool along the forecast track. The NHC forecast late in the
period is close to the intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 295/04. Amanda is expected to turn
northwestward by 24 hours and northward by 48 hours as the mid-level
ridge centered over Mexico weakens. After that time, a continued
slow northward motion is expected as a weakening Amanda moves
between a re-building ridge to the east and a mid/upper-level
trough approaching from the west. The new NHC track forecast is
close to the previous one and remains along the east side of the
track guidance envelope. At days 4 and 5 the NHC track is close to
the FSU Superensemble.

The operational intensity estimate of Amanda at 00Z was less than
100 kt. Therefore, this makes Amanda the second earliest major
hurricane on record in the eastern North Pacific basin, behind only
Hurricane Bud of 2012.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 11.6N 110.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 11.8N 111.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 12.3N 111.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 12.9N 111.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 13.8N 111.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 15.0N 111.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[srainhoutx]

This feature may be a weather maker across our part of the world next week...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles south
of southeastern Mexico. This activity is currently poorly organized,
but environmental conditions should become conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next few days as it drifts
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Avila

[unome]

they have it on the 72-hr forecast a a "possible cyclone" now, moving NE from the EPac

[singlemom]

Our family and friends are heading out to the Magic Kingdom on June 12th. From all accounts, this system (if it forms) should pass on by around next weekend, correct?

Also....I've loved lurking on this site for years and I've learned lots. Would anyone know of a comparable site for Orlando (or Florida) weather so I can lurk\stalk those guys instead of bothering ya'll for Disney weather info (other than "yeah, it's the rainy season...expect a shower or two every day from now til Christmas" lol).

[srainhoutx]

Hi singlemom. Rest assured that we will follow any development of tropical origin anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico and the Eastern Pacific. It is still too far out in time to know with any certainty just how the upper pattern will be 12 days out. That said the easterly moving daily storms are very typical this time of year across Florida. We will keep and eye on things and offer analysis and discussions in the upcoming week. People far and wide read our little weather board. It is a good place for good and factual information without the hype. Stay Tuned!

[srainhoutx]

93E is close to becoming a depression this morning.

[singlemom]

Thanks, Srain for this post and for all the excellent moderation you've provided over the years (and to you other mods as well). I've been impressed and very grateful. Keep it up!