June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

Tue Jun 24, 2014 9:41 am

Ptarmigan wrote:
kayci wrote:I guess there's a cockroach dome over Alvin again?
The thunderstorms are the the RAID for the cockroach dome.

Promise?

Tue Jun 24, 2014 11:35 am

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/24/14 1612Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1600Z WARREN
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF MCV
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MCV IS SEEN TRACKING SE AS MCS ACROSS
TX PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. THIS FEATURE IS APPROACHING AN
AXIS OF MODEST LLVL CONFLUENCE WITH A SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED WNW TO ESE
ACROSS N-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TO ERN TX. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING INCREASING CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHERE PW MOISTURE
HAS POOLED TO 1.5-1.6". ADDITIONAL HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY
SURGING NWD WITHIN SERLY 85H FLOW AND THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HRS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS SLOWLY DROPPING
SE AND THIS SHOULD AID IN ENHANCING VERTICAL ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

WATER VAPOR DOES SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT...THIS IS ALSO NOTED
IN 12Z RAOB FROM FWD WHICH WOULD SUPPORT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TRENDING MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. INITIAL
STORMS...PARTICULARLY AHEAD OF MCV FEATURE MAY BE SLOW-MOVING GIVEN
WEAK STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD HELP SUPPORT LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 18-00Z.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1610-2210Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF SNK TO JSO.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2.0"/HR AT TIMES.
LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE AND
GRAVITATE TOWARD THE S AND E WHERE BEST MOISTURE INFLOW AND INSTABILITY
IS LOCATED. HOWEVER LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM INITIALLY SLOW-MOVING
CELLS/MERGERS COULD RESULT IN 2-3" AMOUNTS.
.

Tue Jun 24, 2014 12:14 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1207 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-242300-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
1207 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A VERY BUOYANT AIR MASS COUPLED WITH INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES WILL
CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WON'T CHANGE MUCH THROUGH FRIDAY SO FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FUNNEL CLOUDS
DO OCCASIONALLY STRETCH TO THE GROUND AND BECOME SHORT LIVED
TORNADOES. PERSONS WHO OBSERVE A FUNNEL CLOUD SHOULD SEEK SHELTER
AS A PRECAUTION.

Tue Jun 24, 2014 12:37 pm

Tue Jun 24, 2014 1:02 pm

I have noticed some rather interesting trends that past several days as we head toward the end of June and the beginning of July regarding a potentially wet to very wet pattern. There are growing indications that possibly the strongest MJO pulse of the season as well as a very stout Kelvin wave will transition E into the Eastern Pacific and arrive in the western part of the Atlantic Basin ( Western Gulf/NW Caribbean Sea ) near the 4th of July.

If the operational and ensemble guidance is correct beyond the medium range, increasing rain chances could develop with even a tropical disturbance near our part of the world. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for most of Texas extending into the July 10th time frame. That would tend to suggest that the arriving MJO pulse/Kelvin wave may have legs and offer a pattern much different than what we have experienced the past 3-4 years.

Also the 12Z suite of guidance is continuing to advertise a wet pattern into the weekend and little in the way of Ridging developing over our part of the world. The shorter range meso guidance continue to ‘sniff’ a robust 700 to 500mb vort moving off the Gulf on Thursday into Friday dropping very heavy rainfall. The trough/shear axis does not appear to move which raises an eyebrow and there are indications that the EPAC may see a tropical cyclone develop and hug the Pacific Coast of Mexico as well as lower pressures from the Bay of Campeche extending N along the trough axis into Texas and Louisiana.

Tue Jun 24, 2014 1:46 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
143 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ197>199-210>213-227-241945-
GRIMES TX-COLORADO TX-HARRIS TX-AUSTIN TX-WALLER TX-FORT BEND TX-
WASHINGTON TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
143 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AUSTIN...WASHINGTON...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...WESTERN HARRIS...WALLER...SOUTHEASTERN
GRIMES...NORTHWESTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTIES
UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 141 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SCHULENBURG TO NEAR
INDUSTRY TO NEAR PATTISON TO TOWN WEST...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS WHICH
CAN SNAP LARGE LIMBS OFF OF TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHEASTERN SUGAR LAND...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI CITY...STAFFORD...
BRENHAM...KATY...TOMBALL...JERSEY VILLAGE...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE
VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BELLVILLE...BUNKER HILL
VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...PINEHURST...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...
SPRING BRANCH WEST...MISSION BEND...SPRING AND TOWN WEST.

Tue Jun 24, 2014 1:51 pm

WOW, Srain!

Sounds like June 2014 may end as WET & WILD!

Should be interesting!

Tue Jun 24, 2014 1:53 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
151 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ199-213-214-227-237-238-241930-
BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-HARRIS TX-CHAMBERS TX-FORT BEND TX-
MONTGOMERY TX-
151 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARRIS...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY...EAST CENTRAL FORT BEND...NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON AND WESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM
CDT...

AT 150 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF BROKEN STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ROUGHLY SUGARLAND TO ALVIN TO LEAGUE CITY...AND
MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...BAYTOWN...MISSOURI CITY...
FRIENDSWOOD...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...ALVIN...DICKINSON...STAFFORD...
SOUTH HOUSTON...BELLAIRE...HUMBLE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...SANTA
FE...WESTERN SEABROOK...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY AND WEBSTER.

Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:22 pm

Bring on the wetness!

Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:38 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
234 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ199-200-213-214-242030-
HARRIS TX-LIBERTY TX-CHAMBERS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
234 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARRIS...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN LIBERTY AND NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTIES
UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 233 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREENWAY / UPPER KIRBY
AREA TO CLOVERLEAF TO BAYTOWN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR ARE ALSO POSSIBILITY
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN PASADENA...BAYTOWN...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...BELLAIRE...
HUMBLE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...
LIBERTY...DAYTON...BEACH CITY...MIDTOWN HOUSTON...NORTHSIDE /
NORTHLINE...FOURTH WARD...CHANNELVIEW...GREATER HEIGHTS...DOWNTOWN
HOUSTON...GREATER THIRD WARD AND GREATER EASTWOOD.

Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:41 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON
TX 237 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ164-178-179-199-200-242030-
TRINITY TX-SAN JACINTO TX-POLK TX-LIBERTY TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
237 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN
LIBERTY...SOUTHWESTERN POLK...SOUTHERN TRINITY AND SAN JACINTO
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 236 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY. THE STRONGEST ONE
AT 236 PM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTH CLEVELAND...OR 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF CLEVELAND...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIVINGSTON...SHEPHERD...ONALASKA...COLDSPRING...POINT BLANK...
GOODRICH...NORTH CLEVELAND...LAKE LIVINGSTON STATE PARK...WEST
LIVINGSTON...EVERGREEN AND OAKHURST.

Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:52 pm

Over the last couple of days the Euro has been suggesting a mid/upper level low, possibly a TUTT low moving W across the Gulf from Florida. That trend continued today and the Canadian has also picked up on this potential feature as it travels beneath a Ridge to our E and heads toward the Western Gulf. It is also noteworthy that general troughiness looks to remain across Mexico and the Euro is onboard with developing a potential Major Hurricane hugging the Pacific Coast of Mexico.

Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:54 pm

Rainfall IMBY today has been light which is good seeing as yesterday we got a deluge here. My lawn and trees are as green as I've seen them in 7 years. Hopefully we can spread the wealth around the state on this and get out of this drought once and for all.

Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:55 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
248 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXC201-242045-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0033.140624T1948Z-140624T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
248 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 246 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5
INCHES PER 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE MOVING...RATES THIS HIGH WILL CAUSE
MINOR STREET FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PASADENA...BAYTOWN...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...SOUTH HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...CHANNELVIEW...GREATER
EASTWOOD...HIGHLANDS...CLOVERLEAF...SECOND WARD...SPRING...
BARRETT...GREATER FIFTH WARD...GREATER HOBBY AREA...ALDINE...NEAR
NORTHSIDE HOUSTON AND GREATER THIRD WARD.

Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:55 pm

It's raining here too!

Feels like football season...

Tue Jun 24, 2014 3:04 pm

What a massive arcing line and outflow boundary. The western part looks really impressive on the San Antonio radar approaching I-35.

Tue Jun 24, 2014 3:05 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXC407-242100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0034.140624T2001Z-140624T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JACINTO TX-
301 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 300 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS. RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR THIS MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
COLDSPRING AND EVERGREEN.

Tue Jun 24, 2014 3:08 pm

jasons wrote:What a massive arcing line and outflow boundary. The western part looks really impressive on the San Antonio radar approaching I-35.

It will be interesting to see how this convection feeds the left over MCV currently near the San Angelo Area, Cyclonic turning is noted on the radar and this could lead to another developing MCS/MCV system this evening as it drifts ESE.

Tue Jun 24, 2014 3:30 pm

I know it's rained close to three inches here today.
It's coming down like crazy in the 77089.

Tue Jun 24, 2014 3:54 pm

Ed,
I work in the Galleria area also, I was outside about 2pm, it was raining, but it was VERY light. The winds picked up for a bit, than that was it. When I left the office at 2:45pm the roads were dry and traffic wasn't a mess

so not much rain to speak of.

Still raining at my house in Stafford, lightly, but constant. The pool isn't much fuller than it was yesterday so not sure how much we got earlier today. Our trash can was left out front with the lid opened, only a puddle in there.

June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

Who is online