Morning Update from Jeff. It is some what worrisome to see the very heavy storms across the Western Gulf that maintained overnight. That trend will need to be watched today for some sort of weak disturbance as the NCEP TC genesis probabilities were sniffing last weekend.
Jeff's Update:
Excessive rainfall possible over the next 48 hours.
A lot of activity already ongoing this morning suggesting this tropical air mass needs little recovery time between rounds of heavy rainfall. Band of strong thunderstorms producing rainfall rates of .50 to .75 of an inch in 15-min is moving northward over central and eastern Harris County extending eastward along I-10 to Beaumont. Short fused street flooding is likely under this band of excessive rainfall.
Upstream air mass over the Gulf of Mexico is extremely moist with PWS ranging from 2.0-2.2 inches or very close to +2 SD above normal for late June on the Corpus Christi sounding. Such a tropical air mass will require little to no heating to produce rounds of heavy to excessive rainfall as clearly seen this morning. Suspect a short break over the next few hours after the passage of this line of weather followed by rapid redevelopment along the coast by late morning spreading inland once again this afternoon.
Short term models in a little better agreement that another break will occur this evening prior to the development of widespread and potentially significant rainfall on Thursday morning. Models are attempting to peg the area from Matagorda Bay to Houston to Liberty for deep convective development overnight and into Thursday morning as the central TX trough axis drifts eastward helping to focus lift over SE TX late tonight. Additionally, speed convergence near the coast/just inland will also result in lift as strong offshore winds weaken near the coast. Will have to keep a very close eye on short term guidance today to see if they continue this trend of a slow moving swath of heavy to excessive rainfall tonight which would likely lead to flooding.
Tropical air mass is firmly in place over the area with upstream satellite derived PWS over the southern Gulf pushing 2.4 inches, so the supply of moisture moving northward into the area will continue and with the weakness in the upper ridge over the area see no reason why it is not going to rain. Using PWS forecasting technique for slow moving or stalled convection suggest rainfall amounts could be on the order of several inches in a few hours. Thus far storms have shown good gust potential keeping them moving along their forward outflow boundaries, but any slowing of storm motions or cell training is going to get local areas into problems quickly. This air mass is very much capable of 2-4 inches of rainfall in an hour under heavy convection. HPC guidance is finally starting to look more realistic to the situation and shows widespread areal rainfall amounts of 1.0-3.0 inches through Friday and this still may be on the lower side especially if any sustained banding or training establishes itself. Could see isolated totals upwards of 8 inches or greater on top of what has already fallen. Yesterday alone nearly 4.0 inches fell on the NW side of Matagorda Bay and 2.0-3.0 inches over SE Harris County.
1-hr flash flood guidance is on the order of 2.0-3.0 inches over much of the region with 6-hr guidance in the 4.0-5.0 inch range. This air mass will be capable of exceeding these values over the next 48 hours generating significant run-off and rises on area stream, creeks, bayous, and rivers. Urban flooding is also likely given the high rainfall rates which will easily overwhelm local drainage systems.
Area Rainfall Amounts (Today-Saturday morning)
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/25/14 1154Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST 1145Z GG
.
LOCATION...SW LOUISIANA...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...ISOLATED FF THREAT ALONG GULF BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1200-1600Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SATURATED LOW LEVELS WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 2.0"
OVERLAY AN AREA THAT RECEIVED SUFFICIENT RAINFALL YESTERDAY TO LOWER
FFG VALUES INTO A RANGE THAT MAY BE EXCEEDED WITH TODAY'S ACTIVE GULF
BREEZE ALONG THE TX AND LA COAST. THIS SUBTLY ENHANCED BY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROFING ALLOWING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY AS WELL. WITH THIS WEAK TROF AND PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN N TX... IS ALLOWING FOR INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW
AIDING MST FLUX TO ENVIRONMENT WITH 3000-4000 J/KG OF CAPES.
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA... DEEP
-65C COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED OVER DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTY...
500-1000MB THICKNESS ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS AREA WITHIN THE CONVERGENT
TROF... INCREASING PROPAGATION VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW WHICH NEARLY CANCELS OUT ALLOWING FOR REPEAT CONVECTION TO BUILD
OVER THE SAME AREAS. WITH HIGH PWS... RATES OF 1.5-2" ARE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER EXPANSION OF THIS SYTLE OF DEVELOPING IS PSBL INTO THE HILL
COUNTY AND FURTHER ENE UP THE GULF BREEZE.
FURTHER EAST ALONG THE TX/LA BOUNDARY... BETTER VEERED LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS BUILDING STRONGER SFC AND LOW LEVEL MST CONVERGENCE FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER/MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION WITH NUMEROUS CELLS TO -70C
AND COOLER....THOUGH INSTABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER HERE... ONSHORE
MST FLUX AND SE PROPAGATION VECTORS COULD ALLOW FOR NEARLY STATIONARY
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THOUGH COLD POOL PROPAGATION
MAY NEGATE SOME OF THE TRAINING ALSO LIMITING FF THREAT TO ISOLATED.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
837 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-251945-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
837 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...
A VERY BUOYANT AIR MASS COUPLED WITH INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES WILL
CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS TODAY.
CONDITIONS WON`T CHANGE MUCH THROUGH FRIDAY SO FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL. FUNNEL CLOUDS DO
OCCASIONALLY STRETCH TO THE GROUND AND BECOME SHORT LIVED
TORNADOES. PERSONS WHO OBSERVE A FUNNEL CLOUD SHOULD SEEK SHELTER
AS A PRECAUTION.
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FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
901 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
TXC029-091-251630-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-140625T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BEXAR TX-COMAL TX-
901 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL COMAL AND EASTERN BEXAR COUNTIES...
AT 851 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
RATES OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR AND AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES PER HOUR
WERE DETECTED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS OCCURRING EAST IF HIGHWAY 218 AND ALONG THE 410 NORTH
LOOP NEAR I 35 AND UP TO ANDERSON LOOP 1604. OTHER VERY HEAVY RAIN
IS FALLING ALONG HIGHWAY 16 JUST WEST OF DOWNTOWN THROUGH LEON
VALLEY TO LOOP 1604. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH AT 15 TO 20
MPH AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND TRACK OVER THE SAME
AREAS. HEAVY RAIN FOR THE HOUR IS EXPECTED.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TERRELL
HILLS...WINDCREST...UNIVERSAL CITY...TIMBERWOOD PARK...SHAVANO
PARK...LIVE OAK...LEON VALLEY...HOLLYWOOD PARK...ALAMO HEIGHTS AND
SELMA
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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
852 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
...LATEST 24 HOUR RAINFALL REPORTS THROUGH 850 AM...
LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE
...LOUISIANA...
...ACADIA...
2 N RAYNE 1.63 IN 0840 AM 06/25
4 ESE IOTA 1.55 IN 0830 AM 06/25
CHURCH POINT 0.31 IN 0835 AM 06/25
...ALLEN...
MITTIE 0.40 IN 0815 AM 06/25
FIRE TOWER 0.27 IN 0800 AM 06/25
...AVOYELLES...
BUNKIE 0.47 IN 0800 AM 06/25
BUNKIE 0.30 IN 0700 AM 06/25
MARKSVILLE 0.02 IN 0700 AM 06/25
...BEAUREGARD...
DE RIDDER 0.45 IN 0800 AM 06/25
...CALCASIEU...
LAKE CHARLES 2.61 IN 0653 AM 06/25
4 SSW LAKE CHARLES 2.43 IN 0826 AM 06/25
SALTWATER BARRIER 1.90 IN 0600 AM 06/25
1 WNW WESTLAKE 1.33 IN 0400 AM 06/25
1 WNW SULPHUR 1.10 IN 0840 AM 06/25
2 NE LAKE CHARLES 1.04 IN 0840 AM 06/25
MOSS BLUFF 0.92 IN 0700 AM 06/25
CALCASIEU RVR AT OLD TOWN BAY 0.85 IN 0500 AM 06/25
5 WSW GILLIS 0.76 IN 0833 AM 06/25
PORT OF LAKE CHARLES 0.75 IN 0700 AM 06/25
WEST FK CALCASIEO-S.H. JONES S 0.70 IN 0740 AM 06/25
3 NNW SULPHUR 0.46 IN 0836 AM 06/25
...CAMERON...
2 ENE GRAND LAKE 1.21 IN 0700 AM 06/25
6 SSE HACKBERRY 1.10 IN 0749 AM 06/25
HACKBERRY 8 SSW 0.99 IN 0700 AM 06/25
2 ENE LACASSINE NATIONAL 0.27 IN 0746 AM 06/25
ROCKEFELLER WLF 0.10 IN 0826 AM 06/25
10 W LACASSINE NATIONAL 0.02 IN 0824 AM 06/25
...IBERIA...
ACADIANA REGIONAL AIRPORT 2.05 IN 0653 AM 06/25
3 ESE NEW IBERIA 1.06 IN 0838 AM 06/25
LSU IBERIA RESEARCH STN 0.34 IN 0700 AM 06/25
...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
JENNINGS 0.88 IN 0600 AM 06/25
1 W WELSH 0.19 IN 0600 AM 06/25
...LAFAYETTE...
TV - KLFY 2.45 IN 0700 AM 06/25
CARENCRO 1.90 IN 0700 AM 06/25
LAFAYETTE REGIONAL AIRPORT 1.43 IN 0653 AM 06/25
...RAPIDES...
3 E UNION HILL 0.98 IN 0730 AM 06/25
3 WNW BOYCE 0.42 IN 1200 AM 06/25
6 SE GARDNER 0.08 IN 0746 AM 06/25
...ST. LANDRY...
3 SSE GRAND COTEAU 1.17 IN 0840 AM 06/25
EUNICE 0.99 IN 0800 AM 06/25
2 NNE OPELOUSAS 0.21 IN 0839 AM 06/25
...ST. MARTIN...
3 N NEW IBERIA 3.66 IN 0842 AM 06/25
...ST. MARY...
3 NW FRANKLIN 0.44 IN 1200 AM 06/25
BAYOU BOEUF LOCK 0.03 IN 0625 AM 06/25
...VERMILION...
2 E PECAN ISLAND 0.68 IN 0839 AM 06/25
6 ENE FORKED ISLAND 0.64 IN 0840 AM 06/25
WATER TREATMENT PLANT 0.60 IN 0800 AM 06/25
LELAND BOWMAN LOCK 0.58 IN 0700 AM 06/25
2 SSE KAPLAN 0.53 IN 0700 AM 06/25
2 SSE KAPLAN 0.49 IN 0838 AM 06/25
ABBEVILLE 0.47 IN 0700 AM 06/25
...VERNON...
FORT POLK 0.21 IN 0655 AM 06/25
7 NNW PITKIN 0.13 IN 0829 AM 06/25
FORT POLK FULLERTON LANDING ST 0.04 IN 0654 AM 06/25
...TEXAS...
...HARDIN...
1 WNW LUMBERTON 2.79 IN 0710 AM 06/25
PINE ISLAND BAYOU @ S.H. 105 2.33 IN 0816 AM 06/25
2 NNE BEVIL OAKS 2.23 IN 0840 AM 06/25
4 N SILSBEE 2.02 IN 0840 AM 06/25
3 NNE SILSBEE 1.96 IN 0835 AM 06/25
3 ENE KOUNTZE 1.70 IN 0730 AM 06/25
VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK 1.70 IN 0800 AM 06/25
2 WNW EVADALE 1.06 IN 0800 AM 06/25
PINE ISLAND BAYOU @ S.H. 105 0.78 IN 0755 AM 06/25
BLACK CREEK @ S.H. 326 0.71 IN 0841 AM 06/25
LITTLE PINE ISLAND BOYOU @ S.H 0.55 IN 0839 AM 06/25
...JASPER...
SAM RAYBURN DAM 0.30 IN 0800 AM 06/25
3 SW JASPER 0.20 IN 0800 AM 06/25
...JEFFERSON...
BEAUMONT YACHT CLUB @ NECHES R 3.78 IN 0828 AM 06/25
BEAUMONT 3.50 IN 0800 AM 06/25
EAST LUCAS @DITCH 002 3.11 IN 0837 AM 06/25
RIDGEWOOD RETIREMENT CENTER 2.96 IN 0833 AM 06/25
1 ENE BEAUMONT 2.70 IN 0700 AM 06/25
LAUREL AND EASTEX FREEWAY @ DI 2.52 IN 0844 AM 06/25
CHINA 2.42 IN 0700 AM 06/25
NOME 2.28 IN 0836 AM 06/25
SOUTH CHINA R.D @ DITCH 608 2.21 IN 0844 AM 06/25
FOREST TRAIL @ DITCH 1202 2.21 IN 0839 AM 06/25
HIGHLAND AVE @ DITCH 104 2.20 IN 0829 AM 06/25
SOUTH 8TH ST @ DITCH 110 2.05 IN 0834 AM 06/25
STATE HWY 365 @ GREEN POND GUL 2.01 IN 0829 AM 06/25
TRAM RD. @ WALKER DITCH 1000 2.01 IN 0828 AM 06/25
PRUTZMAN RD @ DITCH AMELIA C/O 2.00 IN 0834 AM 06/25
PLANT ROAD @ DITCH 903 1.97 IN 0826 AM 06/25
KEITH LAKE @ HIGHWAY 87 AT JUN 1.93 IN 0622 AM 06/25
WASHINGTON BLVD @ CALDWELL CUT 1.93 IN 0835 AM 06/25
EASTEX FREEWAY @ DITCH 001 1.93 IN 0837 AM 06/25
MOORE RD. DETENTION POND 1.89 IN 0838 AM 06/25
STAR LAKE @ GIWW 1.66 IN 0812 AM 06/25
FOLSOM ROAD @ HILLEBRANDT BAYO 1.66 IN 0831 AM 06/25
TRAM ROAD @ DITCH 1002 1.65 IN 0833 AM 06/25
MAHAW BAYOU @ BRUSH ISLAND ROA 1.62 IN 0827 AM 06/25
GLADYS AVE @ HILLEBRANT BAYOU 1.58 IN 0834 AM 06/25
BEST RD @ L.N.V.A. PUMP STATIO 1.54 IN 0840 AM 06/25
MAHAW BAYOU @ ENGLIN RD 1.49 IN 0711 AM 06/25
TURNER ROAD @ DITCH 600 1.46 IN 0839 AM 06/25
GIWW @ CHEVRON DUCK CAMP 1.41 IN 0812 AM 06/25
F.M. 1406 @ NORTH FORK TAYLOR 1.37 IN 0836 AM 06/25
SH 124 @ HILLEBRANDT BAYOU 1.30 IN 0839 AM 06/25
CITY 1.20 IN 1200 AM 06/25
SABINE RANCH @ DITCH 550 1.18 IN 0822 AM 06/25
GIWW @ S. H. 87 BRIDGE 1.14 IN 0714 AM 06/25
WALDEN ROAD @ DITCH 202 1.14 IN 0833 AM 06/25
S. H. 326 @ PINE ISLAND BAYOU 1.11 IN 0843 AM 06/25
LANDIS DRIVE @ DITCH 202B 1.10 IN 0831 AM 06/25
LABELLE ROAD @ TAYLOR BAYOU 1.06 IN 0832 AM 06/25
S. PINE ISLAND RD @ DITCH 607 0.99 IN 0843 AM 06/25
STATE HWY 124 @ NORTH FORK TAY 0.99 IN 0825 AM 06/25
KIDD ROAD @ DITCH 406B 0.98 IN 0836 AM 06/25
HILLEBRANDT BAYOU @ HILLEBRAND 0.95 IN 0835 AM 06/25
SOUTHEAST TEXAS REGIONAL ARPT 0.94 IN 0600 AM 06/25
FRINT ROAD @ WILLOW MARSH BAYO 0.87 IN 0841 AM 06/25
3 SW BEAUMONT 0.86 IN 0700 AM 06/25
LABELLE RANCH PROPERTY @ DITCH 0.86 IN 0713 AM 06/25
STUPKAS CAMP @ GIWW 0.83 IN 0655 AM 06/25
MARSH UNIT @ HIGHWAY 87 @ PARK 0.83 IN 0838 AM 06/25
TAYLOR BAYOU @ NAVIGATION DIST 0.82 IN 0552 AM 06/25
TAYLOR BAYOU @ S.H. 73 BRIDGE 0.75 IN 0811 AM 06/25
BOONDOCKS RD. @ TAYLORS BAYO 0.67 IN 0814 AM 06/25
LABELLE ROAD @ PEVITOT BAYOU 0.67 IN 0837 AM 06/25
LNVA CHEEK CANAL @ DITCH 407 ( 0.59 IN 0828 AM 06/25
GIWW @ SALT BAYOU OUTFALL 0.59 IN 0702 AM 06/25
CLAM LAKE ROAD @ TEN MILE CUT 0.55 IN 0629 AM 06/25
MAHAW BAYOU @ WILBER RD 0.51 IN 0756 AM 06/25
EAST LANE @ DITCH 200 0.47 IN 0554 AM 06/25
5 E BEVIL OAKS 0.31 IN 0833 AM 06/25
CATTLE WALK @ DITCH 550 0.04 IN 0602 AM 06/25
4 WNW SEA RIM STATE PARK 0.02 IN 0835 AM 06/25
...NEWTON...
5 E BUNA 1.39 IN 0805 AM 06/25
...ORANGE...
9 N ORANGE 0.42 IN 0500 AM 06/25
...TYLER...
5 NE VILLAGE MILLS 1.22 IN 0838 AM 06/25
FRED 0.98 IN 0800 AM 06/25
WILDWOOD 0.60 IN 0700 AM 06/25
CHESTER 1 SE 0.60 IN 0700 AM 06/25
SHADY GROVE 0.50 IN 0700 AM 06/25
WOODVILLE 2W 0.40 IN 0800 AM 06/25
2 SE WOODVILLE 0.35 IN 0804 AM 06/25
COLMESNEIL 4 E 0.26 IN 0800 AM 06/25
TOWN BLUFF 0.03 IN 0800 AM 06/25
OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING
EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURE. NOT ALL DATA LISTED ARE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL.
$$
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
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The Austin metro area finally got in on the "fun" this morning with a tropical shower/storm that absolutely dumped on much of south and central Austin. I know because I drove through it! Hoping for more ...
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0153
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1204 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 251603Z - 252203Z
SUMMARY...A GROWING MASS OF CONVECTION IS BUILDING WHILE SLOWLY
MOVING ASHORE THE MIDDLE TX COAST. DESPITE THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES, A FEW SPOTS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA.
DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION IS MOVING
DOWN THE TX COAST AT THE PRESENT TIME. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT, A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WITH COOLING TOPS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO, WITH THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO
ROLL INLAND. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NEAR 25 KTS PER THE 14Z RAP,
INDICATING THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2-2.25" ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION,
WHICH ARE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE JUNE. CAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG ARE DRIVING THE ACTIVITY. THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT
IN THE 12Z CORPUS CHRISTI AND LAKE CHARLES SOUNDINGS WAS ~14,500
FEET -- HIGH ENOUGH THAT WARM RAIN PROCESSES COULD BE AT PLAY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING RADAR ESTIMATES.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST TX
WILL DRIFT SOMEWHAT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST, AND THAT THE ACTIVITY
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INLAND WILL SET UP A COASTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE DUE TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR SETTING UP INLAND AND
THE CAPES BECOMING EXHAUSTED ASHORE. CORFIDI VECTORS ALMOST
DIRECTLY OPPOSE CELL MOTION AND THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL INFLOW, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SLOW THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 3"
AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE HERE IN STRONGER/MORE EFFICIENT STORMS.
SEVERAL PIECES OF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE -- THE LAST COUPLE HRRR RUNS,
THE 06Z CANADIAN REGIONAL, THE 12Z PARALLEL NAM CONEST, AND A
SIGNAL WITHIN THE 00Z SPC WRF INDICATE THAT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6-8"
ARE POSSIBLE HERE. DESPITE THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES,
A FEW SPOTS COULD RECEIVE FLASH FLOODING WITHIN THE DEFINED AREA.
ROTH
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...
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getting some light rain by the bay - I wont complain this go round.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared! Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
now correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like most of the rain is heading for western Louisiana. It looks like we may just get the edge of it in southeast Texas
Snowman wrote:now correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like most of the rain is heading for western Louisiana. It looks like we may just get the edge of it in southeast Texas
Looks to be that way - most of the heavier stuff is in the GOM - off our coast here.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared! Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Snowman wrote:now correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like most of the rain is heading for western Louisiana. It looks like we may just get the edge of it in southeast Texas
Looks to be that way - most of the heavier stuff is in the GOM - off our coast here.
Well even if the rain is a bust at least we have some cloud cover to keep us cool for a couple of days!
The general thinking is the cloud debris left from the early morning storms stabilized the atmosphere over Houston. The guidance and the NWS offices from San Antonio/Austin/Corpus and Houston/Galveston are suggesting a big surge of greater moisture from the Western Gulf arriving around mid night and very heavy rainfall of an additional 4 to 6 inches with some isolated totals of 6 to 10 inches possible as a strong convective complex develops tonight. We will see.
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Unexpected? Man - look through most of the posts on here....one thing is CERTAIN....NOTHING is CERTAIN when it comes to weather forecasting....NOTHING. (examples through countless posts lol)
so - take MOST everything on here with a grain of salt....it's guesstimating at best....but all in all - it's a fun read!
yeah we are caught in no-man's land today due to the stable air and everything down in the Gulf. Keep a close watch because things will likely change overnight...
HGX seems to be going with the flow and taking a watch and nowcast attitude. Not overly confident. Some areas may see alot, other areas may see a little. Depends on how everything continues to unfold.
DISCUSSION...
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN...BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES FELL OVER THE
NORTHWEST ZONES FROM CALDWELL TO BRYAN TO CROCKETT WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE MORNING
CONVECTION THAT ROLLED THROUGH HOUSTON STABILIZED THINGS AND SENT
A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF. A LARGE MCS DEVELOPED ON
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THIS FEATURE CUT OFF THE INFLOW AND
PRODUCED THICK CLOUD COVER TO RETARD HEATING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN...LIMITING HEATING. THAT SAID...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA AND WEST OF MATAGORDA
BAY. BOTH AREAS SHOW INCREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SO NEED TO
WATCH CLEARING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. ANY APPRECIABLE HEATING WILL
TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH WITH
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT NOT SURE WHY. PW VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR 2.00 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE MIDDLE 80S. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE AFTN. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS AND MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SINCE THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY DID NOT RECEIVE
MUCH RAIN IN PRIOR DAYS AND THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
YESTERDAY DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL TODAY. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS STILL REASONABLY HIGH SO WILL FOREGO THE WATCH AT THIS
TIME. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DRIER FOR THURSDAY SO IT IS
WITH SHAKY CONFIDENCE THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS MENTIONED.
PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.90 INCHES ON FRIDAY WHICH IS
STILL PLENTY MOIST. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S WHICH IS
REACHABLE SO STILL EXPECTING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
HEATING. PW VALUES DROP A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE SOUNDING BETWEEN 900-700 MB.
TRIMMED POPS BACK A LITTLE ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUN/MON. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AND RAISED
TEMPS DUE TO INCREASING 850 MB TEMPS AND BUILDING HEIGHTS. 43
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
