June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

[BlueJay]

That is some kind of rain blob on that radar shot, Ed!

Got 0.04 inches over night.

Wet & wild - 8
High & dry - 17

[kayci]

Steady rainfall hear for 4+ hours!

[srainhoutx]

TORNADO WARNING
TXC175-469-252215-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0014.140625T2151Z-140625T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
451 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GOLIAD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL VICTORIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 449 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FANNIN...OR
10 MILES NORTHEAST OF GOLIAD...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
COLETO CREEK PARK...ANDER...WESER...MISSION VALLEY AND SCHROEDER

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/25/14 2209Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 2130ZVOGT MILLER
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...OUN...CRP...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT... SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION/ HVY RAIN
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AS LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEAKENS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF, NEW CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG A SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TX/SRN OK. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE
500 MB FLOW LIFTING NWD INTO SOUTHERN TX, LIKELY AIDING IN THE NEW
CONVECTIVE FORMATION. UPSTREAM, A 40 KT UL JET IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
TX, CREATING AN AREA OF UL DIFFLUENCE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. THE BEST SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS IN SOUTHERN TX INTO THE TX GULF COASTAL AREAS. GFS
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY C-VECTORS OPPOSE THE CELL MOTION ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.... LEADING TO SLOW-MOVING HVY RAINFALL ACROSS THAT AREA.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2210-0110Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AREA OF PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
WHERE ONE FFW HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. BUT AS THE S/WV LIFTS NWD, AND THE
UL JET PUSHES E, EXPECT MORE CONVECTION IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INVOF BANDERA
COUNTY (GOES-R EXPERIMENTAL CI ALGORITHM SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
FORMING IN THIS AREA AS WELL).... SLOWEST MOVING HVY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE TX GULF COAST AND PTS NW. GIVEN THE HIGH-MOISTURE SOURCE
IN PLACE, 1-2"/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION

[Rip76]

Wow that is a lot of moisture out there.
Most I've seen in a very, very long time. Maybe 2007?

[BlueJay]

Rip76' are you getting any of this goodness?

[Rip76]

Killed right now.
This is having beers at the bar, hoping you get flooded in kinda rain.

[BlueJay]

I am currently enjoying the overcast (non rain) cool conditions on the fourth day of summer!

[jasons2k]

Keep a close watch tonight - it could get interesting. GOM blob is dying-off and inflow should resume. The atmosphere didn't recover enough for storms this PM, but now it will be primed for some overnight rains instead. I already see what could be the beginnings of training bands forming over Harris County now.

[Rip76]

Jason, I was just looking at this myself.

[Andrew]

Also keep an eye on things around the San Antonio/Corpus area. Possible meso development could be developing if precip can stay organized.

[jeff]

Band from NNE of Corpus to NW of Victoria looks impressive. Likely going to get some storm totals of 6-8 inches or more in that area this evening.

[Paul Robison]

Dear Jeff:

Could we see any major mesoscale events evolve on Thursday?

[srainhoutx]

Evening Update from Jeff:


After a round of morning thunderstorms the air mass inland stabilized while a large convective complex exploded just offshore. This complex helped to “rob” incoming Gulf moisture to inland areas today and held back surface heating with its mid and high level cloud canopy thus keeping the heavy rainfall focused offshore.

 

Clearing to the SW has resulted in another complex of thunderstorms stretching from Victoria to north of Corpus Christi. 88D indicates upwards of 6 inches of rainfall in the past few hours over Aransas and Refugio Counties. A circulation is clearly noted in the radar loops from San Antonio and Corpus suggesting some sort of mid level vort may be centered somewhere in all the activity between San Antonio and Corpus. Offshore complex over the NW Gulf has weakened considerably in the last few hours and expect air mass over our coastal waters to begin to destabilize with an influx of deep tropical moisture over the western Gulf. Meso models not supporting much development tonight, but given the “vort” off to our WSW and increasing nocturnal speed convergence over the nearshore waters expect activity to begin to fire off in the 100am-400am time period and at least spread toward the coast. This tends to be fairly common with these types of air masses and setups.

 

Main question becomes if and how far inland any coastal convection will penetrate on Thursday morning. Think main trough axis over SC TX will be closer to SE TX on Thursday morning and this will support a little better inland movement of activity however events in the past tend to favor convection anchoring near the coast or offshore and little inland development (ie today). Meso models are not really handling the potential for development very well and will trend more toward experience in these situations over short term model guidance and go with nearshore development late tonight moving into at least the coastal counties and possibly reaching US 59.

 

With the trough axis closer tomorrow storm motions may be slower than the last few days. Even with 15-25mph movement we have still been able to see 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates with the stronger cells. Think motions on Thursday will be in the 10-15mph range and the air mass remains extremely moist so high hourly rainfall rates will be common. Flash Flood Guidance has shown only modest decreases as rains so far have been spotty and not overly concentrated and for the most part think we should be able to handle an additional 2-3 inches without major problems. Some concern for urban areas where tropical rainfall rates can easily overwhelm drainage systems even if the storm total is a couple of inches, but it all falls in 30-45 minutes.

 

Friday-weekend:

Upper ridging will at least attempt to gain a foothold across the region, but I have my doubts if it will be able to cut off rain chances. GFS drops rain chances from 61% Friday to 25% Saturday which seems a little aggressive with the drying. Models have been struggling with how fast and how strong the sub-tropical ridge builds over the region. Think the ridge will have a harder time gaining a foothold with fairly moist grounds and green vegetation compared to the past several summers and allow at least scattered seabreeze storms each day.

 

Ridge looks to finally overtake the area early next week, but again looks short lived as a westward moving tropical wave/TUTT low works is way from FL toward TX by the middle to end of next week. This may result in another surge of deep tropical moisture toward the July 3-4 time period with increasing rain chances again.

[Paul Robison]

TUTT low, Jeff?

Any chance of that developing into a TC?

[Ptarmigan]

A stormy morning gives way to calm days. Tonight could be interesting.

[Paul Robison]

Is this Jeff's TUTT low?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 252321
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area could form off of the southeastern coast of
the United States by early next week. Some development of this
system is possible if it remains over water while it drifts
southward or southwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Note 20% probability development. What'll it be by the time it crosses Florida and reaches TX?

[Ptarmigan]

Is this Jeff's TUTT low?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 252321
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area could form off of the southeastern coast of
the United States by early next week. Some development of this
system is possible if it remains over water while it drifts
southward or southwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Note 20% probability development. What'll it be by the time it crosses Florida and reaches TX?

That one is off the coast of Florida.

[Paul Robison]

Is this Jeff's TUTT low?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 252321
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area could form off of the southeastern coast of
the United States by early next week. Some development of this
system is possible if it remains over water while it drifts
southward or southwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Note 20% probability development. What'll it be by the time it crosses Florida and reaches TX?

That one is off the coast of Florida.

My Question is: Would it likely it cross Florida and develop by the time it reaches Texas?

Seriously, I want the rain but I don't want the wind and lightning.

[Ptarmigan]

My Question is: Would it likely it cross Florida and develop by the time it reaches Texas?

Seriously, I want the rain but I don't want the wind and lightning.

Evening Update from Jeff:


After a round of morning thunderstorms the air mass inland stabilized while a large convective complex exploded just offshore. This complex helped to “rob” incoming Gulf moisture to inland areas today and held back surface heating with its mid and high level cloud canopy thus keeping the heavy rainfall focused offshore.



Clearing to the SW has resulted in another complex of thunderstorms stretching from Victoria to north of Corpus Christi. 88D indicates upwards of 6 inches of rainfall in the past few hours over Aransas and Refugio Counties. A circulation is clearly noted in the radar loops from San Antonio and Corpus suggesting some sort of mid level vort may be centered somewhere in all the activity between San Antonio and Corpus. Offshore complex over the NW Gulf has weakened considerably in the last few hours and expect air mass over our coastal waters to begin to destabilize with an influx of deep tropical moisture over the western Gulf. Meso models not supporting much development tonight, but given the “vort” off to our WSW and increasing nocturnal speed convergence over the nearshore waters expect activity to begin to fire off in the 100am-400am time period and at least spread toward the coast. This tends to be fairly common with these types of air masses and setups.



Main question becomes if and how far inland any coastal convection will penetrate on Thursday morning. Think main trough axis over SC TX will be closer to SE TX on Thursday morning and this will support a little better inland movement of activity however events in the past tend to favor convection anchoring near the coast or offshore and little inland development (ie today). Meso models are not really handling the potential for development very well and will trend more toward experience in these situations over short term model guidance and go with nearshore development late tonight moving into at least the coastal counties and possibly reaching US 59.



With the trough axis closer tomorrow storm motions may be slower than the last few days. Even with 15-25mph movement we have still been able to see 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates with the stronger cells. Think motions on Thursday will be in the 10-15mph range and the air mass remains extremely moist so high hourly rainfall rates will be common. Flash Flood Guidance has shown only modest decreases as rains so far have been spotty and not overly concentrated and for the most part think we should be able to handle an additional 2-3 inches without major problems. Some concern for urban areas where tropical rainfall rates can easily overwhelm drainage systems even if the storm total is a couple of inches, but it all falls in 30-45 minutes.



Friday-weekend:

Upper ridging will at least attempt to gain a foothold across the region, but I have my doubts if it will be able to cut off rain chances. GFS drops rain chances from 61% Friday to 25% Saturday which seems a little aggressive with the drying. Models have been struggling with how fast and how strong the sub-tropical ridge builds over the region. Think the ridge will have a harder time gaining a foothold with fairly moist grounds and green vegetation compared to the past several summers and allow at least scattered seabreeze storms each day.



Ridge looks to finally overtake the area early next week, but again looks short lived as a westward moving tropical wave/TUTT low works is way from FL toward TX by the middle to end of next week. This may result in another surge of deep tropical moisture toward the July 3-4 time period with increasing rain chances again.

According of Jeff, he thinks that tropical wave you mentioned could end up here by next week.