June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

[srainhoutx]

Storm coverage has increased significantly today as PW's near the 1.9-2.0 Range and convectiactive temperatures are met with little in the way of capping. These storms are capable of dropping a quick 1 to 2 inch per hour and should continue into the afternoon hours. Tropical funnels could also form in this very unstable tropical air mass.

The GFS is sniffing some increased tropical moisture returniing next week as the tropical wave in the Western Caribbean moves generally West to West North West toward the Yucatan this weekend.

[TxLady]

A nice little funderstorm, picking up, here. Of course, I already watered all my plants, this morning....

[BlueJay]

I watered this morning too!
Thunder action now but no rain, yet.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro also suggesting the tropical wave axis will near the Mexico/Texas Coast next week with abundant deep tropical moisture.

[Andrew]

Totals so far today:

[jasons2k]

.13" here today. Half an inch just a few blocks away.

[BlueJay]

0.07 inches in my backyard today!

Wet & Wild - 5
High & Dry - 13

[srainhoutx]

Isolated showers and storms mainly W of I-45 should be the main concern today before high pressure and capping take hold into Saturday. A convective complex associated with a trough/shear axis is dumping heavy rainfall near Laredo and that should weaken and drift N into the Edwards Plateau while another convective complex nears Oklahoma City.

The over night guidance continues to advertise an Easterly tropical wave will move W as a trough/shear axis sets up along the Texas Coast next week within a weakness between high pressure to our E in the Eastern Gulf and to our West near NW Mexico. A fairly deep Western trough near the California Coast should keep the developing trough/shear axis across our area next week suggesting a wet pattern with abundant tropical moisture and little in the way of capping promoting rain and storm chances, some possibly heavy as we move toward the mid week time frame next week. Rain chances could continue into the last weekend of June as the upper pattern is somewhat stagnant across the Gulf Coast and well removed from the main jet stream well to our N across the Northern tier of States.

[jasons2k]

Nice shower here at the office (Woodlands TC), it poured for 5-10 minutes, but it looks like nothing at the house.

[kayci]

Nice shower here at the office (Woodlands TC), it poured for 5-10 minutes, but it looks like nothing at the house.

Send that nice shower over here please.....

[Texaspirate11]

NOTHING AT THE BAY.
Nada. Not one drop.

I'm not begging or anything but.....

[srainhoutx]

The HRRR has been doing very well lately with our daily showers and storms ~vs~ the other short term meso and operational guidance. In other news Del Rio has received more rain overnight than that had received all year to date and the flooding continues...

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1012 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

TXC137-271-323-465-202300-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0048.140620T1512Z-140620T2300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EDWARDS-KINNEY-VAL VERDE-MAVERICK-
1012 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
KINNEY COUNTY...
MAVERICK COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY...
VAL VERDE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT FRIDAY

* AT 1010 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS ROAD
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSED ACROSS THE AREA. AN AVERAGE OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES HAD FALLEN
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO PROLONGED
FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND ROADWAYS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...BRACKETTVILLE...COMSTOCK...DEL RIO...EAGLE PASS...JUNO...
LANGTRY...QUEMADO...SPOFFORD...ALAMO VILLAGE AND AMANDA.

[jasons2k]

Finally some showers are popping-up to my south and southeast, instead of to the southwest. Right now along an outlfow along I-10 in the city, and the Gulf Freeway areas.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis regarding another potential warm core heavy rainfall event across SW Texas and the Rio Grande Valley...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/20/14 1900Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1845Z JS
.
LOCATION...SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...EWX...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...QUESTIONS SURROUNDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY
RAINFALL LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL PORTION
OF SW TX AND NEAR OR JUST OVER THE RIO GRANDE.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VISIBLE ANIMATION SHOWS THE LOWER TO
POSSIBLY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLIER MCS OVERNIGHT
HAS DRIFTED MORE TO THE WEST AND APPEARS TO BE OVER TERRELL COUNTY. HAVE
SEEN THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS FROM LAST NIGHT'S MCS WARMING AND BEING SHEARED
OFF TO THE NE THOUGH THE FACT THAT AT LEAST MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL OCCURRING ESPECIALLY OVER VAL VERDE/CROCKETT
COUNTIES IS A TESTAMENT TO THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES WHICH CONTINUE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR AS THIS SYSTEM DISPLAYS CHARACTERISTICS SIMILAR TO AN
INLAND TROPICAL SYSTEM. ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER TO THE W AND S OF THE EARLIER
ACTIVITY WITH NEW CELL FORMATION TAKING PLACE PRIMARILY IN MEXICO THOUGH
SOME TOWERING CU/VERY SMALL NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER
S BREWSTER/TERRELL/W VAL VERDE COUNTIES. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS STILL
IN PLACE IN THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING JUST UNDER
2.0" AND CONTINUING MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE S AND SE.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-0300Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND THE PRESENCE
OF AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY OVER MEXICO(LIKELY THE
REMNANTS OF EARLIER SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) CENTERED AROUND
27N103WWHICH IS MOVING TO THE NORTH, EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE OVER MEXICO WHERE
THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY TAKE PLACE THOUGH
THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY/INFLOW ALSO POINT TOWARD AT
LEAST SOME THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO OCCURRING OVER S
AND E BREWSTER/S PECOS/TERRELL/W VAL VERDE COUNTIES. THE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS TO
WHETHER ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX MATERIALIZES DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BELIEVE IF THAT OCCURS, IT WOULD BE ON THE S PERIPHERY
OF THE LOWER-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE W CURRENTLY OVER TERRELL COUNTY. AT THIS TIME, THE THOUGHT IS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MEXICO MIGHT
INHIBIT ORGANIZATION FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. IN
ADDITION, THE SW SHEAR MAY BE A BIT GREATER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN THE PAST
DAY OR SO. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT WHERE THE LIGHTER PROPAGATION VECTORS AND
850-300MB MEAN FLOW RESIDE, IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
POTENTIAL IF ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY CAN FORM OVER BREWSTER/PECOS/TERRELL
COUNTIES. THE SIGNAL IS JUST NOT AS GOOD AS IT WAS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z suite of guidance continues to advertise a very pronounced weakness across Texas next week and abundant tropical moisture streaming N from the Western Gulf and Mexico. Past experience suggest that when we have a weakness between a Ridge to our E and another to our W, there is some potential for multiple days of rainfall which may be heavy. There is also some indications that a strong MJO pulse may arrive as we end June and begin July. The last MJO pulse was around mid May when we saw widespread rains across Texas as well as some locations receiving 10+ inches of rain in about a week to 10 days. We will see.

[jasons2k]

I hope so -- most of today's storms around Houston went poof.

[BlueJay]

Today is the summer solstice. SUMMER BEGINS!

[ticka1]

countdown to fall starts now!!!!! 92 days woohooo

[srainhoutx]

There is increasing very rich and deep tropical moisture streaming N over Mexico and tapping the monsoonal trough as well as Invest 95E which will likely be absorbed into the trough and spread across Texas. The 00Z Euro/Canadian were very wet across Texas while the 00Z GFS was drier. The 12Z GFS has trended much wetter than previous runs and water vapor imagery suggests the potential may increase. The fly in the ointment is an easterly wave crossing the Caribbean. MIMIC does indicate an increase in tropical moisture surging into the Western Gulf next week setting the stage for a potentially wet week into next weekend.

[Rip76]

Looks like rain coming...