June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

[srainhoutx]

A new meso discussion is out for W Central/Central and Western areas of SE Texas. Looks like a watch will be coming within the next hour or two. Convection is expected to rapidly develop across the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country as a robust short wave approaches from New Mexico and crosses Texas. A stalled frontal boundary across the Hill Country should be the area to watch for very severe super cell storms with large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two. I suspect a Moderate Risk Upgrade is coming shortly.

[Katdaddy]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL AND CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 121919Z - 122115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS W-CNTRL AND CNTRL TX. TSTMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO. A WW WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.

DISCUSSION...A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ACROSS
W-CNTRL/CNTRL TX...OWING TO A DECAYING MCS OVER N/NE TX AND THE
RESULTANT STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THE
PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A SYNOPTIC FRONT. AS OF
19Z...SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS PLACED A SFC LOW N OF DEL
RIO...ATTENDANT TO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS NWD TO APPROXIMATELY 30
E BGS...AND THEN NEWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER. MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT HAS PROGRESSED SWD TO BECOME ORIENTED W-E
ROUGHLY FROM JCT TO AUS...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEATING OCCURRING
HERE COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE N WHERE EARLIER CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION HAS LIMITED HEATING SOMEWHAT. VERY STRONG
HEATING IS OCCURRING S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO 90S F. THE COMBINATION OF A HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
3000-4000 J/KG.

WHILE STILL UNCLEAR...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS BECOMING MORE
PROBABLE ACROSS W-CNTRL TX AS CINH IS QUICKLY ERODING...AND AN
UPSTREAM IMPULSE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IS APPROACHING THE REGION.
GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...IN
ADDITION TO DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE LIMITED S OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE LARGE T-TD SPREADS EXIST AMIDST STRONG
HEATING...BUT RELATIVELY MORE ENHANCED ALONG/N OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN THE PRESENCE OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
BACKED SFC WINDS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE...WHICH
MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.

..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/12/2014

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ213-122130-
HARRIS TX-
343 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 343 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL...OR NEAR DEER PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH BUT WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN PASADENA...BAYTOWN...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...GALENA
PARK...JACINTO CITY...HIGHLANDS...CHANNELVIEW...CLOVERLEAF...MORGAN'S
POINT...HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL...NORTHSHORE AND SAN JACINTO STATE PARK.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ199-200-213-122145-
HARRIS TX-LIBERTY TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
352 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 351 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR KENEFICK...OR NEAR DAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH BUT WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIBERTY...DAYTON...ROMAN FOREST...AMES...DAISETTA...HARDIN...PLUM
GROVE...KENEFICK...DEVERS AND DAYTON LAKES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

[srainhoutx]

A large tornado watch has been issued until midnight for portions of W Central/Central and N Central Texas.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 405 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
SAN ANGELO TEXAS TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
IN THE PRESENCE OF 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...INITIAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF A PRIOR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. INTO THIS EVENING...STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING MCS ACROSS CENTRAL TX WITH SOME INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL.

[Andrew]

Surprised a moderate risk wasn't issued for the Austin area and points west for hail. SB Cape values range from 4000-4500 J/kg with some pretty impressive vertical velocities.

[Portastorm]

My concern as well, Andrew, although with a Tornado Watch now in place ... maybe it's a moot point. Dewpoints are crazy here and, as you referenced, the airmass is as unstable as a Fukushima reactor. This is one of the more impressive setups for large hail/tornadoes for my area of Texas than I have seen in a while.

[Andrew]

My concern as well, Andrew, although with a Tornado Watch now in place ... maybe it's a moot point. Dewpoints are crazy here and, as you referenced, the airmass is as unstable as a Fukushima reactor. This is one of the more impressive setups for large hail/tornadoes for my area of Texas than I have seen in a while.

Yea surface winds show some good backing and if the models/ DFW sounding are correct there could be some good veering with height. Only issue could be bulk shear and if moisture has mixed out of the BL. Either way mid level CAPE is quite large so hail and damaging winds could definitely be an issue.

[Portastorm]

SPC also mentioned that any tornadoes that do form would probably be along the old outflow boundary. That currently runs from NE Texas through much of Central/South Central Texas out to Junction. Would include Austin metro area.

Going to be an interesting evening around here, it appears.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
445 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXC201-130045-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0026.140612T2145Z-140613T0045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
445 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 444 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO ONE AND HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PASADENA...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...SEABROOK...GALENA PARK...JACINTO
CITY...CLOVERLEAF...NORTHERN CLEAR LAKE...TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE...EL
LAGO...SHOREACRES...MORGAN'S POINT...NORTHSHORE...HOUSTON SHIP
CHANNEL...SAN JACINTO STATE PARK...HARRISBURG / MANCHESTER...
CLINTON PARK TRI-COMMUNITY...EL DORADO / OATES PRAIRIE AND
MEADOWBROOK / ALLENDALE.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/12/14 2151Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2145Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT THIS EVENING
AND INTO OVERNIGHT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IN THE WAKE
OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF, SOUTHERN STREAM HAS BECOME MOSTLY ZONAL WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING IN WNW FLOW INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX AND
OK PANHANDLES. EARLIER MCS HAS PUSHED SE AND WEAKENED WHILE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS WAS ROUGHLY ANALYZED ON LATEST VIS IMAGERY
AND SURFACE ANALYSIS TO EXTEND FROM JUST N OF HOU EXTENDING NW TO VIC
OF DYS. GOES SOUNDER INDICATES THAT AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS BECOMING HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
NOTED FROM THE VIC OF PSX EXTENDING NW TO VIC OF OUTFLOW AND SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY INTERSECTION WHILE LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS AND AREA GPS WERE
SHOWING RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE ROUGHLY ALONG THIS AXIS WITH GREATEST
INCREASES NOTED NEAR ACT AND FWD TO NEAR 1.85". HAVE NOTED INCREASING
CU ALONG AND JUST N OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH GOES R EXPERIMENTAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALGORITHM SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL INITIATION LIKELY
ON THE SHORT TERM NEAR GULF BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION NEAR BPT,
NEAR OUTFLOW/SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY INTERSECTION NEAR DYS AND ALSO NEAR JCT.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2115-0315Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...BELIEVE LOCALIZED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHILE QUICKLY
BECOMING SUPERCELL IN NATURE. BUNKERS TECHNIQUE OFF OF HODOGRAPHS OF 12Z
AREA SOUNDINGS, WOULD SUGGEST SOME RATHER INITIAL SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH ANY MERGERS THAT OCCUR WOULD FAVOR POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. DEEP CLOUD BEARING WNW/NW FLOW WOULD TEND
TO FAVOR THAT ANY ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
FORWARD PROPAGATE SE TOWARDS PORTIONS OF SE TX. INCREASING MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 2.00"/HR IN THE
MOST INTENSE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD, THE CONCERN WOULD THEN SHIFT FURTHER UPSTREAM
ON THE SW PORTIONS OF ANY COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT DO DEVELOP
PARTICULARLY IN THE VIC OF UPSTREAM THETA-E RIDGE AXIS OVER CNTRL TX THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR SOME UPSTREAM REGENERATION WITH NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENING LLJ. USING 12C AT 70H AS A ROUGH APPROXIMATION FOR CAP,
WOULD THINK THAT BEST ORGANIZED RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
N OF A DYS TO LBX LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED SUPER CELLS S OF THERE AS
BEST UPSTREAM FORCING SHIFTS SE INTO PORTIONS OF SE TX. ANY UPSTREAM
REGENERATION, IF IT DOES DEVELOP WOULD MOSTLY BE FAVORED ON SW PORTIONS
OF ANY ORGANIZED COLD POOLS THAT WOULD BE PRESUMED TO BE NOT MUCH FARTHER
N OF THE LBX TO DYS AXIS. AGAIN CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH IN THE UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
503 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ200-122245-
LIBERTY TX-
503 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 501 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF DEVERS...DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH THOUGH
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE OVER
THE SAME AREA.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEVERS.

[BlueJay]

This storm sounds rather WILD!

I hope all are prepared and are safe.

[BlueJay]

Extremely LOUD clap of thunder just sounded but no real thunder clouds (?)...

[srainhoutx]

Jason and close to redneckweather are getting hit...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
620 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 619 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER WOODLOCH...OR
JUST NORTH OF THE WOODLANDS. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN CONROE...THE WOODLANDS...OAK RIDGE NORTH...SHENANDOAH...
WOODLOCH...PORTER HEIGHTS AND CHATEAU WOODS.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 288...

VALID 122345Z - 130115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 288 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
COULD STILL INCREASE IN UPSCALE GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.

DISCUSSION...DUE TO LINGERING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH
VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...AND THE LACK OF STRONGER AND
MORE FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS REMAINED LIMITED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED DISCRETE STORMS. BUT IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE MIXED LAYER
CAPE /IN EXCESS OF 3000 J PER KG/...AND MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...STORMS HAVE BEEN
INTENSE...OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...AND PROBABLY GENERATING LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

THE MORE SUSTAINED STORMS...NOW SOUTH OF ABILENE AND JUNCTION...AND
MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF FORT HOOD...HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
COMMENCES ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THESE STORMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO PROPAGATE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
THAN SOUTH...WITH AT LEAST SOME ACCELERATION IN SPEED.

..KERR.. 06/12/2014


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

[BlueJay]

I'm getting a small taste of the action. It is raining IMBY. Hopefully I will get a measurable amount.

[jasons2k]

It's been raining here for about an hour. It comes in waves as the storm backbuilds over me, sometimes light and sometimes pouring rain.

[cisa]

Driving home from work on 1314 was an adventure. Hail was crazy. Stopped at light at 242 and I was kind of afraid OT would break my windshield. I haven't seen hail like that in a long time.

[unome]

crazy hail by Abilene

https://twitter.com/TxStormChasers/stat ... 5344079872