June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

[ticka1]

I think Gulf development is unlikely, (East Pac seems favored) if it does occurs, it likely will be weak, and well East. And the bitterly cold Winter still has cast a cool shadow on our part of the Gulf, which may not be a bad thing if we can talk TS or Cat 1 hurricanes during the prime time of the season, all the forum fun, with coastal residents not losing homes.

With all due respect Ed. those of us who live on the coast would have alot of damage from flooding. I have lived in Friendswood since 1976 all of the flooding here accord during Tropical storms there just is not enough steering to move these storms along. I am hoping for not tropical activity this year.

Me too. My countdown is now for november 30th

[BlueJay]

For my backyard the June 2014 "score" is:
Wet & Wild - 0
High & Dry - 1

[cisa]

The skies positively opened up on me twice todayin Humble/Kingwood/Porter, then went to my son's house in Atascocita and it didn't rain a drop. Go figure.

[wxman57]

Just over 10" of rain in Wesstbury for May. Having to mow my lawn every 4-5 days. Cold and wet was my perception of May. June is starting out the same.

[kayci]

Well, I really enjoyed the rain while it lasted, and I wouldn't mind more.

Oh and BTW Ed, 24 lives were taken by that tornado in Moore, OK. I think your comment was very insensitive.

[BlueJay]

Had a surprise pop-up shower at lunch time. 0.03 inches IMBY!

WET & wild - 1
Hot & dry - 1

The "score" is tied.

[srainhoutx]

That old pesky upper low that has meandered for well over a week and a half across our Region looks like it will make one last appearance before the Upper Ridge builds in from Mexico. There is some good news for areas N of us that also have been plagued by a long term drought. A series of troughs with heavy rain and severe storms should develop almost daily as a general Westerly flow aloft crosses the Plains.

[srainhoutx]

There remains a lot of uncertainty in the medium to longer range forecast. The various global ensembles do agree that a festering Bay of Campeche tropical system could develop and meander for several days and possibly beyond a week as that upper pattern continues to be stagnant. What raises an eyebrow is the fact that some of the guidance indicates a weakening and shift upper ridge back further W off the Pacific Coast of Mexico as a deepening Gulf of Alaska low develops a Western trough with embedded short wave upper air disturbances rotating into the 4 Corners Region. What we will need to monitor is if we see a weakness or avenue of generally SE flow off the Gulf and increasing deeper tropical moisture as the days go on. Some of the guidance suggests that anywhere from Tampico to near the Lower Texas Coast could see some sort of weak land falling tropical disturbance in about a week. With increasing easterly’s kicking in and the very little motion as steering currents collapse, it will be worth keeping an eye out for some potential tropical troubles a bit closer to home.

[kayci]

It's coming down here in Alvin! Maybe the pond is gonna fill back up after all!

[kayci]

I'm not sleeping nor dreaming, it's really still coming down here at my work. Am I the lucky 20% for today and also, why is my big grey cloud not showing on radar?? Just wonderin.

[unome]

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... roduct=FTM

000
NOUS64 KHGX 031234
FTMHGX
Message Date: Jun 03 2014 12:38:20

THE KHGX RADAR WILL BE DOWN FOR SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE STARTING AT 1400Z.

RB

Edit to add: HOU Hobby radar link: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/?rid=HOU ... es=10&fs=0

[BlueJay]

No pop up showers for me today.

Today's score IMBY is:

Hot & DRY - 2

Wet & wild - 1

[BlueJay]

Thanks for the reports!

Time to set up my soaker hose again.

[srainhoutx]

Early next week could be wet as a short wave crosses Texas embedded in a NW flow aloft along the eastern flank of the Upper Ridge as it shifts W over the Baja. There is some indication that our Bay of Campeche area of disturbed weather may linger and additional moisture may get pulled N toward the NW/Central Gulf Coast. As long as that BoC/EPAC monsoonal trough keeps convection going, all eyes will be looking S. Many will remember 13 years ago a weak system spun up 80 miles S of Galveston and brought 5 days of torrential rainfall and widespread flooding as well as claimed 22 lives and is still known as the costliest Tropical Storm in US history. Allison caused over 5 Billion dollars in damage across our Region.

[srainhoutx]

Rain chances increase beginning Sunday and extend into next week. The morning 7 Day QPF suggests 3-6 inches of rain across portions of Texas and Oklahoma and a general 1-3 inches across SE Texas into Louisiana as a weakness develops and the Upper Ridge is anchored across California and the Desert SW. The Bay of Campeche disturbance continues to fester and is likely going to be around for the next 5 to 7 days as the monsoonal gyre continues to keep the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Bay of Campeche very disturbed.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1227 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2014

VALID 12Z SUN JUN 08 2014 - 12Z THU JUN 12 2014


...CALIFORNIA HEAT WAVE...

THE MODELS JUST DO NOT SEEM TO BE ABLE TO AGREE ON THE SYNOPTIC
PARTICULARS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. HAVE
BEEN RELYING ON THE STEADY EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS, AND SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE FROM IT NOW.
A BROAD TROUGH IS INDICATED OVER THE NATION EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. IN
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THREATS, THE WESTERN RIDGE MAY DELIVER
THE GREATEST IN THE FORM OF EXTREMELY HOT, DRY CONDITIONS FOR JUST
ABOUT ALL OF CALIFORNIA--SAVE MODEST STRETCHES OF THE IMMEDIATE
PACIFIC COAST. TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE QUITE COMMON IN THE
GOLDEN STATE, WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +20F IN THE
NORTHERN CENTRAL VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGH HEAT WILL
EXTEND INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY, BUT THE ANOMALIES THERE
WILL BE LESS THAN HALF OF THOSE IN THE CALIFORNIA'S CENTRAL
VALLEY. THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SHOULD ESCAPE THE HEAT WAVE, WITH A STEADY
SUPPLY OF MARITIME POLAR AIR.

THE OTHER AREA OF HEIGHTENED WEATHER THREAT WILL BE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WHERE SEVERAL DAYS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS COULD SEND RAINFALL TOTALS UP ANOTHER 3-6".

CISCO

[jasons2k]

Looks more and more like the Central Plains, and extending into Texas, is getting enough spring rains to prevent a non-stop death ridge this summer. Read a column from JB and he thinks Texas will be cooler and wetter than the CPC forecasts.

[Rip76]

Looks a little funnel cloud-ish out there today.

[kayci]

Where Rip?

[jasons2k]

GFS is now further South and West with the rainfall for next week, more aligned with the Euro. Some of the blogs out there have taken note....and more rain on the drought parade.

[srainhoutx]

Just had a nice little downpour in NW Harris County. Certainly not expect since Friday and Saturday the forecast had us high and dry under subsidence from the upper ridge.