July 2014: Stalled Front/ Rain Chnaces To End July

[Paul Robison]

Kinda glad to see rain on the radar right now. BTW: Jeff has forgotten to mention that the NWS does not expect severe weather; the atmosphere is a TROPICAL environment, not likely to support widespread severe weather. Welll, I suppose a tropical funnel cloud and a few wind gusts up to 55 MPH might occur with the strongest storms but, the general thinking is that the overall severe weather risk is limited. It looks to me like flash flooding will continue to be the main hazard.

[djjordan]

Be weather aware ..... keep in mind a Flash Flood Watch is in effect ....... Turn Around Don't Drown


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 AM CDT

* AT 102 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS
WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA....ESPECIALLY WHERE
HEAVY RAINFALL FELL EARLIER THIS EVENING NEAR APPLE SPRINGS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CROCKETT...APPLE SPRINGS...GRAPELAND...KENNARD...
LATEXO...CENTRALIA AND PENNINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS FARM AND COUNTRY ROADS. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

[djjordan]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 AM CDT

* AT 1246 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE RAIN DUE TO
SHOWERS. AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE ADVISORY
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN THE EARLIER HEAVY
RAINFALL...THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS ON AREA ROADWAYS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...SNOOK...KURTEN...WIXON VALLEY...
MILLICAN...KYLE FIELD AND WELLBORN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED...OR
PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.
IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.

[djjordan]

For our friends out in Central Texas.......

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TAYLOR...GRANGER...

* UNTIL 415 AM CDT

* AT 114 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE
FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER EASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY...
INCLUDING GRANGER AND TAYLOR.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEIR...
THRALL...GRANGER AND TAYLOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

[jasons2k]

Houston split....

[djmike]

Us in beaumont are quickly going under water!

[ticka1]

flash flood watch cancelled looks like after this batch of rain its over for us....i got less then one inch from all this

[Belmer]

Flash Flood watch has been cancelled for Houston area. Convection last night kinda kept a lid on things to really get going. Though if you live in Beaumont, watch out for flooding.
Wouldn't say this forecast was necessarily a bust. This was a very difficult forecast as a lot of models weren't really seeing eye to eye what was going to happen with the convection out west. Though think the HRRR did a really good job on the initialization from last night to where the storms were going to be this morning.

Checked latest morning runs, still think we have a good shot at having some scattered showers and thunderstorms today as the low moves out. Those who get the rain could see minor flooding as PW's are atill quite high (2+) and will dump some good tropical downpours.

After this storm system moves out, expect drier and hotter conditions. Isolated showers will continue over the weekend and possibly into next week. Expecting more of a summer time pattern into next week with the heat of the day, and a sea breeze, will get a few storms. High Pressure looks to really build in mid to late next week. High temps right now look to be in the mid to upper 90s area wide, though, with the little rainfall we received overnight, and not too much expected in the next few days, could see some places approach the triple digits. Mainly North and East of I-10.

[djmike]

Beaumont is up to 4" -5" in many areas. Im currently flooded in. Cars are stalling everywhere. Looks like another heavy line coming through now.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Excessive rainfall observed overnight from College Station to Lake Livingston with a report of 7.99 inches just southwest of Huntsville and radar indicating upwards of 10 inches in that same general region.

Meso scale processes have resulted in extensive heavy rainfall west and east of SE TX this morning with little development noted over our region. Activity out west along the Rio Grande is slowly sinking southward while eastern activity is progressing into LA. Our air mass remains extremely moist and fairly unstable and with a boundary lying somewhere between Houston and Huntsville think additional development will occur once heating begins this morning. Ongoing activity west of the region could result in enough cloud canopy for much of the morning to reduce heating keeping storms from developing until early afternoon.

Threat for organized heavy rainfall and flash flooding appears to be shifting eastward into LA and the flash flood watch was cancelled around 400am this morning. Still could see some excessive rainfall rates under the stronger cells today and Saturday.

Upper ridging attempts to build over the region and shut down rain chances starting Sunday, but models this entire summer have been too bullish on the ridging and to this point it has been unable to gain a good foothold and end rain chances. Think this attempt will be no different with daily seabreeze activity Sunday-much of next week. In fact global models show yet another weakness in the ridge setting up very near our region toward the middle of next week which may once again increase rain chances.

Should see highs increase toward the lower to mid 90’s early next week, but still compared to the last several summers this summer remains on the mild side.

[jasons2k]

Wouldn't say this forecast was necessarily a bust.

The Flash Flood Watch was cancelled just a few hours into it, before things hardly even got started in the middle of the night. I'd call that a bust.

[Belmer]

Wouldn't say this forecast was necessarily a bust.

The Flash Flood Watch was cancelled just a few hours into it, before things hardly even got started in the middle of the night. I'd call that a bust.

That's why I laid out my thoughts on it. Granted, if you were near the Bryan College Station area, that flood watch came pretty handy and useful. NWS even said in there discussion last night when they issued the Watch that they weren't real concerned about everyone in SE TX really seeing flooding, it would be the isolated storms like the one in Sanger, TX and near College Station where steering currents are weak and training develops. That is now happening this morning in Beaumont. Obviously things didn't quite pan out as they thought, but again as I said in my last post, there was a big spread in a lot of the models and handeling the rain. NWS in my book made the right call because of the weak steering currents we had, and how our atmosphere is so unstable and juicy right now, that if rain did head our way, It would have caused flooding.
Have to hand it to the meteorologists at the NWC, it's a tough call when you don't have a lot of agreement. But given how much of SE TX was saturated from previous rainfall, it wasn't going to take too much to start causing problems.

[djmike]

6.66″ I what we finished with here in Beaumont! Major flooding and cars floating down the highway. 1″ yesterday, so over 7″ in less than 24 hours!! Entire city is at a standstill...

[ticka1]

Time to crank the a/c up and endure the rest of the hot summer. For those that are counting it is 65 days until the official start of Autumn!

[kayci]

Wow! MAJOR downpours here in Alvin.

[BlueJay]

6.66″ I what we finished with here in Beaumont! Major flooding and cars floating down the highway. 1″ yesterday, so over 7″ in less than 24 hours!! Entire city is at a standstill...

I just saw some pictures of the floating cars in Beaumont! Goodness!
Djmike and all in that area, I hope y'all are drying out and all is OK.

[srainhoutx]

What a glorious cool July morning across the area with much lower dew points and some cloud cover. it is 70F at this hour when I had a low of 81F yesterday. The frontal boundary has pushed to the Coast. A lot of records have been set across the State. Now a brief break before we warm up and rain chances return mid next week.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
254 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT COLLEGE STATION...

A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 79 WAS SET AT COLLEGE STATION.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 84 SET IN 1960.

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN COLLEGE STATION FAILED TO
REACH 80 DEGREES IN JULY WAS ON JULY 14TH OF 2002 WHEN THE HIGH WAS
77.

[srainhoutx]

The Medium/Long Range guidance is already indicating a rather deep Central/Eastern trough developing once again near the end of July. As the WPAC continues to be active tropical wise, there are indications that the down stream upper air pattern will continue to buckle from time to time and this may well continue into August which typically is our hottest month. If the pattern continues, we may not see day time temperatures break the 100F mark and that would be a first in at least 6 years, if I recall correctly.

[Ptarmigan]

The Medium/Long Range guidance is already indicating a rather deep Central/Eastern trough developing once again near the end of July. As the WPAC continues to be active tropical wise, there are indications that the down stream upper air pattern will continue to buckle from time to time and this may well continue into August which typically is our hottest month. If the pattern continues, we may not see day time temperatures break the 100F mark and that would be a first in at least 6 years, if I recall correctly.

The last we did not see 100 degrees in the summer was 1997.

[Rip76]

No kidding Srain.
Sitting outside on the back patio, catching up on work.

Cooler temps, nice breeze.

And that "100 degrees since 1997," is just insane.