The 2014 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season will likely have its first TD early this upcoming week and possibly TS Arthur toward the end of the week as the area of low pressure off the SE US is becoming better organized:
Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located about 230 miles east of St. Augustine,
Florida, is gradually becoming better defined as it moves slowly
southward to southwestward. Although upper-level winds are only
marginally favorable, a tropical depression is expected to form
during the next day or two. However, the system's proximity to dry
air could inhibit significant development until environmental
conditions become more conducive by late Tuesday while the low
meanders offshore of the Florida east coast. The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that was scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon has been canceled, and the flight has
been rescheduled for Monday morning, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Hurricane Arthur/East Coast Threat
-
Paul Robison
Could 91L slip under the Florida peninsula and churn toward the Texas coast next week, Katdaddy?Katdaddy wrote:The 2014 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season will likely have its first TD early this upcoming week and possibly TS Arthur toward the end of the week as the area of low pressure off the SE US is becoming better organized:
Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located about 230 miles east of St. Augustine,
Florida, is gradually becoming better defined as it moves slowly
southward to southwestward. Although upper-level winds are only
marginally favorable, a tropical depression is expected to form
during the next day or two. However, the system's proximity to dry
air could inhibit significant development until environmental
conditions become more conducive by late Tuesday while the low
meanders offshore of the Florida east coast. The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that was scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon has been canceled, and the flight has
been rescheduled for Monday morning, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
-
srainhoutx
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Morning Update from Jeff regarding 91L:
Tropical cyclone likely to form off the eastern coast of FL.
Early light visible images and radar loop from Melbourne, FL indicates a well defined surface circulation has developed about 150 miles E of Melbourne, FL and is drifting southward. Deep convection is limited near the center and scattered to the south and west of the center. The lack of deep convection is most likely a function of northerly wind shear and nearby dry air.
Forecast models have come into better agreement since yesterday and on track and intensity of this system. 91L will continue to drift SSW to SW over the next 24-36 hours and gradually complete a clockwise loop near the FL east coast. Depending on how quickly this loop occurs will determine if the system makes landfall on the FL east coast as suggested by the hurricane forecasting model (HWRF). The general guidance consensus is to keep the storm just off the FL east coast and then turn toward the N and NNE with a possible landfall over SC/NC toward the late week time period as a trough approaches the US east coast.
Unlike yesterday, nearly all guidance now develops 91L and a few models bring it to hurricane intensity as it nears the SE US coast this week. Upper level conditions will gradually become more favorable for development as upper level wind shear weakens and the system spins over the warm waters of the Gulf stream. A window in the late Tuesday-Thursday time frame looks most favorable for development as the upper level winds relax and transition ahead of the approaching late week trough. It is becoming more likely that a tropical storm or possibly a hurricane will be nearing the SE US coast mid to late this week.
Short term impacts will be felt across much of FL through the middle of the week with increasing winds and squalls moving WSW off the Atlantic followed by longer term impacts toward the Carolinas depending on exactly how close the system tracks to the coast.
Development potential in the next 48 hours: 60%
Development potential in the next 5 days: 80%
Tropical cyclone likely to form off the eastern coast of FL.
Early light visible images and radar loop from Melbourne, FL indicates a well defined surface circulation has developed about 150 miles E of Melbourne, FL and is drifting southward. Deep convection is limited near the center and scattered to the south and west of the center. The lack of deep convection is most likely a function of northerly wind shear and nearby dry air.
Forecast models have come into better agreement since yesterday and on track and intensity of this system. 91L will continue to drift SSW to SW over the next 24-36 hours and gradually complete a clockwise loop near the FL east coast. Depending on how quickly this loop occurs will determine if the system makes landfall on the FL east coast as suggested by the hurricane forecasting model (HWRF). The general guidance consensus is to keep the storm just off the FL east coast and then turn toward the N and NNE with a possible landfall over SC/NC toward the late week time period as a trough approaches the US east coast.
Unlike yesterday, nearly all guidance now develops 91L and a few models bring it to hurricane intensity as it nears the SE US coast this week. Upper level conditions will gradually become more favorable for development as upper level wind shear weakens and the system spins over the warm waters of the Gulf stream. A window in the late Tuesday-Thursday time frame looks most favorable for development as the upper level winds relax and transition ahead of the approaching late week trough. It is becoming more likely that a tropical storm or possibly a hurricane will be nearing the SE US coast mid to late this week.
Short term impacts will be felt across much of FL through the middle of the week with increasing winds and squalls moving WSW off the Atlantic followed by longer term impacts toward the Carolinas depending on exactly how close the system tracks to the coast.
Development potential in the next 48 hours: 60%
Development potential in the next 5 days: 80%
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low
pressure east of Florida.
Updated: An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is
investigating the area of low pressure centered about 110 miles east
of Melbourne, Florida. While the low is well defined, the
associated thunderstorm activity is just below the organizational
threshold required to initiate tropical cyclone advisories.
Environmental conditions continue to be favorable for development,
and only a slight increase in the organization and persistence of
the thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a
tropical depression.
Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that peak sustained
winds with the low are about 30-35 mph. The low is moving
southwestward at around 5 mph, but is expected to turn westward
tonight and northward by Wednesday when it will be near the east
coast of Florida. If this system becomes a tropical cyclone, a
tropical storm watch could be required for portions of the central
or northern Atlantic coast of Florida. A turn toward the northeast
near the southeastern U.S. coast is expected by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Franklin
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low
pressure east of Florida.
Updated: An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is
investigating the area of low pressure centered about 110 miles east
of Melbourne, Florida. While the low is well defined, the
associated thunderstorm activity is just below the organizational
threshold required to initiate tropical cyclone advisories.
Environmental conditions continue to be favorable for development,
and only a slight increase in the organization and persistence of
the thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a
tropical depression.
Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that peak sustained
winds with the low are about 30-35 mph. The low is moving
southwestward at around 5 mph, but is expected to turn westward
tonight and northward by Wednesday when it will be near the east
coast of Florida. If this system becomes a tropical cyclone, a
tropical storm watch could be required for portions of the central
or northern Atlantic coast of Florida. A turn toward the northeast
near the southeastern U.S. coast is expected by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Franklin
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srainhoutx
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Morning Update from Jeff regarding Tropical Depression # ! off the Florida East Coast:
First tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season forms off the east coast of FL
A tropical storm watch is issued from Flagler Beach, FL to Fort Pierce, FL
A hurricane watch/tropical storm watch will likely be required for portions of the SE US coast later today or early Wednesday.
Discussion:
The area of low pressure off the east coast of FL has gained enough convective organization to be declared a tropical cyclone and advisories have been initiated on TD #1. The depression is currently located about 90 miles SE of Cape Canaveral, FL and is drifting toward the W at 2-3mph. Coastal radars from Melbourne and Miami, FL along with IR satellite images indicate that the deep convection remains displaced to the southern semi-circle of the system due to weak northerly wind shear and some dry air in the mid and upper levels. Surface pressures reported by USAF recon. aircraft have fallen from 1011mb yesterday afternoon to 1008mb this morning suggesting that even though the convection is displaced to the south, it is close enough to the center to allow some slight intensification.
Track:
TD #1 will meander westward today in a weak steering pattern and then begin to make a sharp turn toward the N and NNE on Wednesday. A digging deep layer trough currently over the Midwest will approach the US east coast late this week and capture the tropical cyclone and bring it northward near/off the US east coast. This is a fairly straightforward forecast track situation, but as usual the fine details will determine the ultimate impacts on the US east coast. Forecast track guidance is tightly clustered even through the next 5 days suggesting an above average confidence on the track of the system. The biggest concern is where the system may make landfall if at all along the Carolina coast Thursday/Friday. The shape of the NC coast and the track yield a system passing almost parallel to the coast or skirting the southern NC coast and possibly clipping the outer banks. Only a small deviation of the forecast track to the west would bring the center inland over NC on Friday with a small deviation to the east keeping the system offshore. Given the tight model consensus it is possible the center will be very near or over the southern coast of NC and the outer banks early Friday.
Intensity:
Both coastal radars and the USAF aircraft have reported that the system has a tight well defined circulation, but continues to fight against northerly wind shear and dry air which is limiting the convection near/over the center and thus far has prevented significant deepening. With that said, conditions in the upper levels are forecast to greatly improve over the next 24 hours with weak 250mb outflow developing over the surface circulation which should help decrease the upper level shear and dry air entrainment. Once an inner core can consolidate there appears to be little to stop intensification and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm later today. Intensity guidance has generally increased from yesterday with now several models bringing the system to a hurricane in 72 hours and this seems logical given the system will be passing over the warm Gulf Stream in a favorable position of upper level outflow SE of an advancing large scale trough. The SHIPS and HWRF models are on the upper end of the intensity spectrum with the GFS, GFDL, and LGEM on the lower end of the spectrum. The current forecast calls for the system to reach a 75mph category 1 hurricane at 72 hours at is nears the NC coast.
Impacts:
Short term impacts will be felt across central and southern FL in the form of WSW moving squalls and feeder bands on the west side of the circulation. Wind gust to 40-50mph will be possible in the tropical storm watch area mainly in squalls. Much more significant impacts appear slated for the SC and NC coast Thursday into Friday with potential for storm surge flooding especially on the NC Outer Banks and inland sounds as well as flooding rainfall and some modest wind damage. More specific impacts will be determined as the forecast track firms some over the next 24-36 hours.
NHC Forecast Track and Error Cone:
First tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season forms off the east coast of FL
A tropical storm watch is issued from Flagler Beach, FL to Fort Pierce, FL
A hurricane watch/tropical storm watch will likely be required for portions of the SE US coast later today or early Wednesday.
Discussion:
The area of low pressure off the east coast of FL has gained enough convective organization to be declared a tropical cyclone and advisories have been initiated on TD #1. The depression is currently located about 90 miles SE of Cape Canaveral, FL and is drifting toward the W at 2-3mph. Coastal radars from Melbourne and Miami, FL along with IR satellite images indicate that the deep convection remains displaced to the southern semi-circle of the system due to weak northerly wind shear and some dry air in the mid and upper levels. Surface pressures reported by USAF recon. aircraft have fallen from 1011mb yesterday afternoon to 1008mb this morning suggesting that even though the convection is displaced to the south, it is close enough to the center to allow some slight intensification.
Track:
TD #1 will meander westward today in a weak steering pattern and then begin to make a sharp turn toward the N and NNE on Wednesday. A digging deep layer trough currently over the Midwest will approach the US east coast late this week and capture the tropical cyclone and bring it northward near/off the US east coast. This is a fairly straightforward forecast track situation, but as usual the fine details will determine the ultimate impacts on the US east coast. Forecast track guidance is tightly clustered even through the next 5 days suggesting an above average confidence on the track of the system. The biggest concern is where the system may make landfall if at all along the Carolina coast Thursday/Friday. The shape of the NC coast and the track yield a system passing almost parallel to the coast or skirting the southern NC coast and possibly clipping the outer banks. Only a small deviation of the forecast track to the west would bring the center inland over NC on Friday with a small deviation to the east keeping the system offshore. Given the tight model consensus it is possible the center will be very near or over the southern coast of NC and the outer banks early Friday.
Intensity:
Both coastal radars and the USAF aircraft have reported that the system has a tight well defined circulation, but continues to fight against northerly wind shear and dry air which is limiting the convection near/over the center and thus far has prevented significant deepening. With that said, conditions in the upper levels are forecast to greatly improve over the next 24 hours with weak 250mb outflow developing over the surface circulation which should help decrease the upper level shear and dry air entrainment. Once an inner core can consolidate there appears to be little to stop intensification and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm later today. Intensity guidance has generally increased from yesterday with now several models bringing the system to a hurricane in 72 hours and this seems logical given the system will be passing over the warm Gulf Stream in a favorable position of upper level outflow SE of an advancing large scale trough. The SHIPS and HWRF models are on the upper end of the intensity spectrum with the GFS, GFDL, and LGEM on the lower end of the spectrum. The current forecast calls for the system to reach a 75mph category 1 hurricane at 72 hours at is nears the NC coast.
Impacts:
Short term impacts will be felt across central and southern FL in the form of WSW moving squalls and feeder bands on the west side of the circulation. Wind gust to 40-50mph will be possible in the tropical storm watch area mainly in squalls. Much more significant impacts appear slated for the SC and NC coast Thursday into Friday with potential for storm surge flooding especially on the NC Outer Banks and inland sounds as well as flooding rainfall and some modest wind damage. More specific impacts will be determined as the forecast track firms some over the next 24-36 hours.
NHC Forecast Track and Error Cone:
- 07012014 TD 1 115506W5_NL_sm.gif (40.68 KiB) Viewed 5323 times
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TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
Radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective
organization of the cyclone has improved since the previous
advisory, and the cyclone is being upgraded based on a sustained
wind report of 33 kt from Settlement Point (SPGF1) on Grand Bahama
Island earlier this morning that was outside of the deep convection.
After remaining nearly stationary earlier this morning, Arthur
appears to to be drifting northwestward now with an uncertain motion
of 315/02 kt. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the
previous forecast track. The latest model guidance has continued the
trend of a pronounced mid-tropospheric trough digging southeastward
from the upper-midwest into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic region
of the United States by 72 hours. The 500 mb flow pattern is almost
identical in the GFS and ECMWF models, which increases the
confidence in this evolving pattern. As a result, a steady increase
in southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States
is expected to gradually turn the tropical cyclone northward over
the next 24-36 hours, and then accelerate the system faster toward
the northeast on Thursday and Friday. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is
forecast to move over the far north Atlantic as an extratropical
cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed
guidance envelope close to the consensus model TVCA.
Northwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast by the models to
gradually subside over the next 48 hours, which should allow the
cyclone to develop its own upper-level outflow pattern. In fact,
latest visible and water vapor imagery indicates that cirrus
outflow has been expanding on the north side of the system during
the past few hours, suggesting that the shear conditions could
already be subsiding. The low shear conditions and warm
sea-surface temperatures should allow for at least steady
strengthening, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by
72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus IVCN through 36 hours, and then
slightly higher after that.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 27.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 29.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 31.2N 78.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 35.4N 75.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 40.8N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 45.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
Radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective
organization of the cyclone has improved since the previous
advisory, and the cyclone is being upgraded based on a sustained
wind report of 33 kt from Settlement Point (SPGF1) on Grand Bahama
Island earlier this morning that was outside of the deep convection.
After remaining nearly stationary earlier this morning, Arthur
appears to to be drifting northwestward now with an uncertain motion
of 315/02 kt. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the
previous forecast track. The latest model guidance has continued the
trend of a pronounced mid-tropospheric trough digging southeastward
from the upper-midwest into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic region
of the United States by 72 hours. The 500 mb flow pattern is almost
identical in the GFS and ECMWF models, which increases the
confidence in this evolving pattern. As a result, a steady increase
in southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States
is expected to gradually turn the tropical cyclone northward over
the next 24-36 hours, and then accelerate the system faster toward
the northeast on Thursday and Friday. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is
forecast to move over the far north Atlantic as an extratropical
cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed
guidance envelope close to the consensus model TVCA.
Northwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast by the models to
gradually subside over the next 48 hours, which should allow the
cyclone to develop its own upper-level outflow pattern. In fact,
latest visible and water vapor imagery indicates that cirrus
outflow has been expanding on the north side of the system during
the past few hours, suggesting that the shear conditions could
already be subsiding. The low shear conditions and warm
sea-surface temperatures should allow for at least steady
strengthening, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by
72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus IVCN through 36 hours, and then
slightly higher after that.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 27.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 29.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 31.2N 78.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 35.4N 75.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 40.8N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 45.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Stewart
- 07012014 TS Arthur 145625W5_NL_sm.gif (40.23 KiB) Viewed 5299 times
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Latest image of Arthur.
HWRF Model In 2 days,
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srainhoutx
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Morning Update from Jeff regarding Arthur:
A Hurricane Watch is issued for the NC coast from Bogue Inlet to Oregon Inlet including Pamlico Sound
A Tropical Storm Watch is issued for the SC coast from Santee River, SC to Bogue Inlet, NC and from Oregon Inlet, NC to the NC/VA border
Category 1 hurricane forecast to pass near/over E NC Friday morning.
Discussion:
Several aircraft have been in Arthur over the past 24 hours including multiple WC-130 missions and a high altitude GIV mission late yesterday. The WC-130 encountered a meso vortex in the SE flank of the system yesterday afternoon and recorded a 10-sec sustained wind of 65kts and fairly severe turbulence at 925mb. Data from the NOAA GIV mission revealed a significant amount of dry air surrounds Arthur to the N and NE and some of this was likely getting entrained into the inner core over the last 24 hours. Even with some negative factors, the most recent center fix and dropsonde has recorded a central pressure down to 996mb so the system continues to intensify. The flight crew also reported a ragged eyewall feature which has also been showing up on Melbourne, FL radar and IR satellite images overnight suggesting Arthur is a fairly well developed tropical cyclone and once the dry air entrainment can be cut off into the inner core the system will likely become a hurricane.
NOTE: NOAA buoy 41010 just east of the center recorded a sustained wind of 47mph with gust to 63mph
Track:
Latest aircraft fixes show Arthur has made the sharp turn to the north as he begins to feel the weakness due to an approaching large scale trough to the NW. Global and hurricane forecasting models and in tight agreement that Arthur will turn NNE and begin to accelerate ahead of this trough with the CMC and ECMWF models on the right (east) side of the guidance clustering and the GFDL, HWRF, and GFS on the right (west) side. There has been enough of a westward shift overnight in the guidance to bring a greater threat to eastern NC and now many of the models bring the center of a hurricane onshore the NC coast/Outer Banks early Friday morning. This is a fairly high confidence forecast track given the well defined steering flow that will become established in the next 12-24 hours.
Intensity:
Arthur shows good upper level outflow to the east and southeast with some restriction to the north and west with some very weak upper level shear. Bigger negative factor is the dry air to the north and east of the system which is getting entrained into the inner core and weakening the deep convection. Overall the appearance is fairly good both on satellite and radar and as Arthur begins to pull northward today and finds more favorable conditions intensification is likely. Nearly all guidance brings Arthur to a hurricane in the next 24-48 hours and this seems reasonable given the favorable upper air pattern and the system crossing/moving along the warm Gulf Stream. The current NHC forecast brings a 85mph hurricane to the SE NC coast early Friday morning.
Impacts:
Conditions will begin to improve today along the FL east coast and begin to deteriorate on Thursday along the SC and NC coast. The exact track of the system with a landfall or just skirting the coast will determine the final impacts. Think there is a good possibility of sustained TS force winds along the SC and NC coast and sustained hurricane force winds over extreme SE NC and the Outer Banks on Friday. Onshore flow on the N side of Arthur will push storm surge and increasing large wave action against the Outer Banks likely enough to breach and overtop in some areas. Additionally, strong east to west winds in Pamlico Sound may result in storm surge flooding at the west end of the sound. Heavy rainfall of 4-6 inches appear possible across E NC and possibly into portions of the NE US as the tropical system interacts with the incoming frontal boundary and large scale trough.
A Hurricane Watch is issued for the NC coast from Bogue Inlet to Oregon Inlet including Pamlico Sound
A Tropical Storm Watch is issued for the SC coast from Santee River, SC to Bogue Inlet, NC and from Oregon Inlet, NC to the NC/VA border
Category 1 hurricane forecast to pass near/over E NC Friday morning.
Discussion:
Several aircraft have been in Arthur over the past 24 hours including multiple WC-130 missions and a high altitude GIV mission late yesterday. The WC-130 encountered a meso vortex in the SE flank of the system yesterday afternoon and recorded a 10-sec sustained wind of 65kts and fairly severe turbulence at 925mb. Data from the NOAA GIV mission revealed a significant amount of dry air surrounds Arthur to the N and NE and some of this was likely getting entrained into the inner core over the last 24 hours. Even with some negative factors, the most recent center fix and dropsonde has recorded a central pressure down to 996mb so the system continues to intensify. The flight crew also reported a ragged eyewall feature which has also been showing up on Melbourne, FL radar and IR satellite images overnight suggesting Arthur is a fairly well developed tropical cyclone and once the dry air entrainment can be cut off into the inner core the system will likely become a hurricane.
NOTE: NOAA buoy 41010 just east of the center recorded a sustained wind of 47mph with gust to 63mph
Track:
Latest aircraft fixes show Arthur has made the sharp turn to the north as he begins to feel the weakness due to an approaching large scale trough to the NW. Global and hurricane forecasting models and in tight agreement that Arthur will turn NNE and begin to accelerate ahead of this trough with the CMC and ECMWF models on the right (east) side of the guidance clustering and the GFDL, HWRF, and GFS on the right (west) side. There has been enough of a westward shift overnight in the guidance to bring a greater threat to eastern NC and now many of the models bring the center of a hurricane onshore the NC coast/Outer Banks early Friday morning. This is a fairly high confidence forecast track given the well defined steering flow that will become established in the next 12-24 hours.
Intensity:
Arthur shows good upper level outflow to the east and southeast with some restriction to the north and west with some very weak upper level shear. Bigger negative factor is the dry air to the north and east of the system which is getting entrained into the inner core and weakening the deep convection. Overall the appearance is fairly good both on satellite and radar and as Arthur begins to pull northward today and finds more favorable conditions intensification is likely. Nearly all guidance brings Arthur to a hurricane in the next 24-48 hours and this seems reasonable given the favorable upper air pattern and the system crossing/moving along the warm Gulf Stream. The current NHC forecast brings a 85mph hurricane to the SE NC coast early Friday morning.
Impacts:
Conditions will begin to improve today along the FL east coast and begin to deteriorate on Thursday along the SC and NC coast. The exact track of the system with a landfall or just skirting the coast will determine the final impacts. Think there is a good possibility of sustained TS force winds along the SC and NC coast and sustained hurricane force winds over extreme SE NC and the Outer Banks on Friday. Onshore flow on the N side of Arthur will push storm surge and increasing large wave action against the Outer Banks likely enough to breach and overtop in some areas. Additionally, strong east to west winds in Pamlico Sound may result in storm surge flooding at the west end of the sound. Heavy rainfall of 4-6 inches appear possible across E NC and possibly into portions of the NE US as the tropical system interacts with the incoming frontal boundary and large scale trough.
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Arthur is becoming a pretty good looking storm.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 79.1W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY...FROM NORTH OF DUCK TO
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING CHEASEPEAKE BAY...AND
FOR THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING
CHEASEPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 79.1W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY...FROM NORTH OF DUCK TO
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING CHEASEPEAKE BAY...AND
FOR THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING
CHEASEPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
Arthur could be the first hurricane of 2014. I would not be surprised if it is a Category 2 hurricane.
NHC's archive for hurricane Arthur, Jun 30 - Jul 5
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2014/ARTHUR.shtml?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2014/ARTHUR.shtml?