Hurricane Bertha: North Of the Bahamas

[Katdaddy]

Tropical cyclone development looking better this morning:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Shower activity has increased and become a little
better organized during the past several hours, and environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
of this disturbance over the next several days while it moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[srainhoutx]

There continues to be a lot of dust to the N of 93L. Conditions appear marginal favorable for some development as long as this disturbance remains attached to the ITCZ where a rather low shear environment and instability are some what positive for TC genesis. I suspect the next Easterly wave exiting Africa may offer a slightly better environment over next couple of days as it continues W near 10N.

We will see if showers/storms associated with 93L continue to persist as it travels W at fairly low latitude over the next couple of days around 10 to 15 miles per hour. I would like to see convection remain some what in tact for a day or two before jumping onboard a solution similar to what the GFS is suggesting.

[wxman57]

Good chance of getting TS Bertha out of 93L. Not much chance it will come anywhere close to the NW Gulf, though.

[Katdaddy]

Invest 93L continues to become better organized and would not be surprised to see TD 3 later today. Most models still show a recurve away from the Caribbean this morning. Also of interest is the tropical wave behind Invest93L which is showing some signs of organization. I would not be surprised if this wave becomes our next Atl Invest over the next several days.

[TexasBreeze]

Invest 93l has become TS Bertha as of 10 pm advisory from NHC. Watches/ warnings in effect for some of the Caribbean islands.

[djjordan]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 55.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE FRIDAY
MORNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BARBADOS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY
EVENING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[txflagwaver]

Hello Hurricane Bertha...