September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

[Andrew]

Mid level ridging really tries to dig in over most of the gulf coast next week according to the GFS. If that happens it will be hard for this system to make it too far North. Still 6 to 7 days out so a lot will change but ridging looks pretty dominate as of now.

[djmike]

Mexico. Figures.

[srainhoutx]

Mexico. Figures.

Remember when what is now Cristobal was expected to make landfall today in Galveston via the GFS? There is still some spread in the individual members and nothing has even formed as of now.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon update from the Climate Prediction Center suggests a rather deep trough dropping S in their Day 8+ Analogs.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro ensemble mean is rather well clustered at hour 120 in the NW Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula and then the spread widens by hour 144 in the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf.

[cperk]

Mexico. Figures.

That GFS forecast is not etched in stone.Lets see what we have come Sunday and take it from there.

[srainhoutx]

With the long Labor Day Holiday Weekend upon us, here is a brief synopsis of the potential development of more tropical mischief in the NW Caribbean Sea and the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf early next week. The global operational guidance has been wavering on developing a tropical disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula/Bay of Campeche late on Sunday into Labor Day (September 1st). The reliable Euro and GEFS ensembles are suggesting the potential for something to spin up, but differ on timing and where this development may actually occur. The pressures in the Western Caribbean have been falling the past 24 hours and a tropical wave is moving W south of Hispaniola in the Central Caribbean. At this time wind shear is keeping development in check, but conditions may become a bit more favorable once this disturbance nears the NW Caribbean/Bay of Campeche. It is note worthy that a TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough) is N of the Greater Antilles moving WNW in tandem with this disturbance and that is typically not conducive for tropical development. We will continue to monitor over the Holiday weekend just in case things change and update as need be. The National Hurricane Center currently gives this disturbance a 20% chance for development by day 5.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located a few hundred miles southeast of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are
expected to remain unfavorable for development during the
next day or so. However, environmental conditions could become
more conducive for some development when the system moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday, and into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico Sunday night or Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kludge]

Nobody can accuse this forecaster of being a downer...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014
DISCUSSION...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY FOR E AND SE TX. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE C PLAINS AND A WEAK
UPPER LOW OVER S TX WHICH HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY THE LAST
DAY OR TWO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME STEERING
CURRENTS FOR THE UPPER LOW AND EXPECT IT TO MOVE TOWARDS THE UPPER
TX COAST TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO PROVIDING FLOW FOR
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT TOWARDS THE NW GULF FOR TONIGHT. IR
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS VERY DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE C GULF. THERE IS ALSO A LINE OF STORMS
OVER N TX ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE 00Z CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS SHOW 2-2.2
INCHES OF PRECIP WATER. MOISTURE IN THE GULF HAS PW VALUES
APPROACHING 2.5 SO THERE WILL BE CERTAINLY PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE ARE ALREADY SOME STORMS PUSHING
INLAND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like we will see Invest 99L or a reactivation of 97L shortly. A floater is up for the Central Caribbean area of disturbed weather.

[cperk]

srainhoutex are you buying the GFS track for ex 97L.

[ticka1]

What track is it showing? GFS on 97L?

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Cristobal, which has become a post-tropical cyclone a few hundred
miles east of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

1. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over
the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more favorable
for development on Saturday while the wave moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is forecast to move
across the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday and into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday, where environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GEFS ensemble members appear to have most of the individual members clustered near Tampico. As always, until a defined center forms and we have an actual storm to track, nothing is set in stone.

[Katdaddy]

Historic. Be thankful this was not reality for the Houston-Galveston areas. Are you ready? I will never forget reading this public weather statement.

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

…EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA…

…DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

[ticka1]

just watched a 54 min youtube video jim edds posted that i have not seen before - the storm surge was horrible

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff regarding our new Invest 99L S of Jamaica/The Cayman Islands:

Tropical wave over the west-central Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica has been classified as invest 99L.

 

Deep convection has developed this afternoon in conjunction with the westward moving tropical wave and surface pressures are slowly starting to fall. While there does not appear to be any closed surface circulation at this time upper level winds will become increasingly favorable for develop as the system moves into the NW Caribbean Sea Saturday and Sunday.

 

General steering flow over the northern Gulf of Mexico is currently toward the NW and NNW, but should gradually back toward the WNW and W over the next 5 days as high pressure attempt to re-establish behind the departing trough currently over the central plains into NC TX. This should result in a general WNW to NW motion of any developing tropical cyclone in the NW Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico and this is supported by much of the global model guidance. The system should emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday or early Monday.  

 

Forecast models are not overly aggressive with this system which seems a bit odd given the generally favorable conditions. Land interaction with the Yucatan peninsula could be one reason, although developing tropical cyclones tend to hold together fairly well while crossing this generally flat landmass. First run of the tropical models and SHIPS intensity guidance does bring the system to a 85kt hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico which is somewhat in line with what the 00Z CMC was showing (977mb hurricane). All other model guidance keeps the system general an open wave or a weak tropical storm including the GFS.

 

Note:

Radar images from both Houston and Lake Charles this evening show a well defined circulation approaching the Chambers/Jefferson County coastline. Surface observations have not shown any significant pressure falls with this feature. Rollover Pass just gusted to 24kts out of the east and Texas Point at the Louisiana border is gusting to 24kts and 27kts within the last 2 hours. Marine obs at the buoy 20 E of Galveston, Rollover Pass, and High Island suggest nothing out of the ordinary besides gusty E to ESE winds. The well defined radar circulation is likely based in the 1000-3000 ft level since there are no defined NW winds over Galveston Island or points west to near Freeport as suggested by the SE moving radar echoes.

 

Think best chances of excessive rainfall overnight will be from Freeport to Liberty and SE in association with the landfall of this feature. Low level speed convergence is already establishing over the Gulf waters from 60-100 miles offshore and expect to see a rapid increase in deep convection in the next few hours. Radar estimates today and observations show rainfall amounts of up to 4.34 inches over Sugar Land so this air mass is very much capable of some impressive short term rainfall amounts under the stronger cells.

 

[srainhoutx]

A broad area of lower pressures and disorganized disturbed weather the NW Caribbean continues to slowly move WNW to NW this morning. The NHC has increased development chances slightly to 40% early next week when conditions may become more favorable for tropical development once it passes over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday into Monday and enters the Bay of Campeche. The overnight ensembles are still rather well clustered near or just N of Tampico Tuesday into Wednesday.

[Cromagnum]

No sense in worrying about this one. You guys couldn't even get rain pegged all week and are stoill dropping the ball on that. Why should anyone put any stake in forecasts for a storm a week out when everyone is running in failure mode?

[srainhoutx]

The ensembles are rather insistent on pressures continuing to fall across the SW Caribbean Sea into the Western Gulf in the medium range and beyond. In fact the pressure tendency (1008mb or less) in the Western Caribbean and Western Gulf is lower during the first 10 days or so than we have seen all season anywhere in the Atlantic Basin.

[Katdaddy]

Its not about worrying. Its about awareness and having a plan should a tropical threat materialize for the Upper TX Coast and SE TX over the next month. It only takes one.