September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Fro our neighbors N of San Antonio...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1107 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BLANCO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
GILLESPIE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHERN KENDALL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN KERR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 1058 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA. BETWEEN
1 1/2 AND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN ESTIMATED...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BLOWOUT...
SANDY...ROCKY CREEK...HYE...ALBERT...BLUMENTHAL...STONEWALL...
GRAPETOWN...CAIN CITY...ROCKY HILL...TIVYDALE...ECKERT...
CRABAPPLE...HILLTOP...CHERRY SPRING...DOSS...BANKERSMITH...JOHNSON
CITY...WILLOW CITY...LUCKENBACH AND LBJ STATE PARK

[jasons2k]

I came home to five inches. Based on the nearest gauge, that was about 2.30" yesterday and then another 2.70" this morning. Plants are happy.

[mckinne63]

It wasn't raining here in Stafford when I left for work at 4am, but boy oh boy, when I got on 59 heading to the galleria area it was bad! Have no clue when the rain had started in that area, but the feeders weren't flooded yet, so I drove slowly and continued on. I would like to put a big hex on the 18 wheeler that whizzed past me doing about 70 and splashed so much water that I couldn't see!

I leave work early on Friday, it had started to pour again just before I left. But as I got closer to home it was a much lighter rain.

We lost power around 11:30am, not sure it was from the rain though, unless perhaps the transformer got water logged. I heard a loud BOOM and than the power went out. Luckily they fixed it in just over an hour.

Looking outside now, I see clouds, but clearing skies.

Not sure how much rain we received here in Stafford, but know yesterday I had drained the pool quite a bit and when I got home the water level was up to the tippy top.

[kayci]

Radar looks like everything is fizzling out, no?

[srainhoutx]

Just shy of 8 inches in my rain gauge for the Odile 'ordeal' we've been experiencing this week so far. Not too shabby.

[mckinne63]

Wow! Can we say this was a drought buster? We need to get a rain gauge, often the rain is all around us, but doesn't hit Stafford, but the last two days I have had to drain the pool so we have received some nice amounts.

[mckinne63]

I would also like to thank all the pros here that post. I don't understand the technical stuff, but check here before I do the news section.

[Electric Lizard]

What happened to that mid-next-week front? The discos have dropped mention of it.

EDIT: I see it's back this morning though the sweaters won't be needed.

[ticka1]

all the rain over with?

[Ptarmigan]

This is definitely the wettest summer I've ever experienced in my 34 years in Houston. Had a not-as-wet June after over 10" in may then 8" in July, 9" in August and who knows how much by the end of September.

Is it the wettest summer you measured? How does it compare to past summers. I know Summer 2006 and 2007 were wet.

[srainhoutx]

Dry warm weather should continue into early next week. A weak back door front should drop into Eastern Texas Monday and stall along the Coast. It appears a long fetch easterly flow develops across the Gulf and higher tides associated with the new moon may become an issues into mid next week. Attention then turns to the NW Caribbean where the 12Z Euro develops a tropical disturbance. The Euro suggests that it may move into the Western Gulf later next weekend. The ensembles remain rather insistent of lowering pressures across the Western Caribbean and the Gulf in the medium/longer range. We will see. There is still no sign of a strong Fall cold front on the horizon as we begin Fall on Monday.

[Paul Robison]

Dry warm weather should continue into early next week. A weak back door front should drop into Eastern Texas Monday and stall along the Coast. It appears a long fetch easterly flow develops across the Gulf and higher tides associated with the new moon may become an issues into mid next week. Attention then turns to the NW Caribbean where the 12Z Euro develops a tropical disturbance. The Euro suggests that it may move into the Western Gulf later next weekend. The ensembles remain rather insistent of lowering pressures across the Western Caribbean and the Gulf in the medium/longer range. We will see. There is still no sign of a strong Fall cold front on the horizon as we begin Fall on Monday.

2 questions, srainhoutex:
1.) Another Carla brewing?
2.) Any damaging storms likely with this back door front?

[Katdaddy]

Paul, no Carla brewing or damaging storms with the weak cool front today

Second cool front to arrive this afternoon and off the coast this evening. 40% chance of thunderstorms along the front. Much drier air and a little cooler temps Tuesday and Wednesday will give SE TX very nice Fall weather which begins at 9:29PM tonight.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Cold front currently just south of I-20 over N TX will move southward and off the TX coast this evening with a chances of thunderstorms and a much drier post frontal air mass.

Air mass over SE TX will moisten this morning ahead of a cool front on this first day of fall. Weak capping will be overcome with a surface temperature in the upper 80’s and this looks likely to be achieved by early to mid afternoon. Not sure enough moisture will work north of HWY 105 to produce much activity over our northern set of counties, but south of HWY 105 and especially south of I-10 moisture looks enough to produce showers and thunderstorms along the frontal boundary. Additionally, the seabreeze will move inland and may collide with the front near peak heating over the Houston metro area which may result in slightly greater lift in that region and a better chance of seeing convection develop. Storms will move SSW to SW and off the coast early this evening. Short term models are fairly dry for this afternoon, so not overly confident we will see much across the area.

Extremely dry air mass currently over the central plains will move southward and overtake the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Dewpoints fall into the 60’s and possibly the 50’s during the afternoon hours and dry air aloft is mixed to the surface. Overnight lows will fall into the 60’s with highs in the 80’s under mostly sunny skies. Large high pressure located over the eastern US will keep moisture trapped south of our region over the central Gulf of Mexico much of the week. There are indications that the tropical air mass may attempt to return northward toward next weekend with increasing rain chances.

Coastal Tides:
Only real item of concern this week will be coastal tides. ENE to E long fetch flow from FL to TX will result in gradual tidal buildup. New moon on the 24th will result in already above average tides and E flow will help to trap that water near the coastline. Already running about a 1.0 ft above predicted levels this morning at Galveston with total water level rise on the order of 2.0-2.5 ft. Using ET surge guidance shows similar values through Wednesday before an increase toward the end of the week (Thursday and Friday) with values possibly getting close to 3.0 ft. Water levels may get high enough by the end of the week to result in some coastal overwash.

[BlueJay]

Good bye Summer 2014!
It gave us many things to talk about and did its best to reverse the damages done by the wretched drought. It fit in nicely with the on-going theme of cooler and wetter days that we've enjoyed in 2014.
Cheers!

Now, on to Fall 2014...

[TexasBreeze]

Another quick 1/3 of an inch at the house to add to the large totals from last week.

[Katdaddy]

Picked up just a little more. .12"

[Texaspirate11]

From our NWS

GOODBYE SUMMER AND HELLO FALL!

[Katdaddy]

Temps running about 5F cooler than yesterday with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s make for a very nice SE TX Fall morning. Nice weather to continue the next several days.

[djmike]

Nice! Reached 58 degrees this morning here in Beaumont! 56 forecasted for tonight! Didnt think this front was going to be stronger than the one two weeks ago, but it is. Now, if I can just figure out a way to move my desk outside, all would be good! Have a great cool Tuesday weather peeps!