SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/25/14 1456Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1445Z JS
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LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MESOANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DATA POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG SE TX COAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...A LOOK AT THE ANIMATION OF THE BLENDED TPW
PRODUCT AND GOES SOUNDER PRODUCTS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
OVER THE CENT TX COAST WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RISEN TO
AROUND 1.75" THIS MORNING WITH REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATING AT LEAST
20KTS OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC
FLOW AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH CIRCULATION CENTER OVER S CENT TX
WHICH PLACES SE TX IN A FAVORABLY DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT. AT THE SFC,
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXISTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF CENT TX WITH MAX
JUST OFFSHORE WHERE INVERTED SFC TROF EXISTS. WITH CONDITIONS PRESENT
FOR DECENT LIFT, THERE HAS BEEN A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OFFSHORE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO WITH A FEW
CELLS NOW SPREADING INLAND OVER THE AREA CENTERED AROUND BRAZORIA COUNTY.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-2100Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, EXPECT THE INCREASING
OFFSHORE ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE COASTAL REGION OF CENT TX LIKELY
IMPACTING THE AREA FROM MATAGORDA TO GALVESTON COUNTIES. THE INCREASINGLY
HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN RATES OF LOCALLY 2-3"/HR WITH THE
STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS. THE OVERALL MEAN FLOW OF GREATER THAN 10KTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MOVEMENT WITH THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS, THOUGH
TRAINING DOES APPEAR LIKELY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WITH CONGEALING/MERGING
CELLS LEADING TO A BRIEF SPIKE IN THE RAIN RATES TO MAYBE GREATER THAN
3"/HR. LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3" OR MORE ARE VERY POSSIBLE WITH EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR VERY ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5" NEAR THE COAST. THE THREAT
MAY PERSIST EVEN WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE GOES SOUNDER/BLENDED TPW PRODUCT
DOES SHOW THIS DRIER AIR NOW WEST OF 90W OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
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