September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

[jasons2k]

Rain seems to like me when it's supposedly all over. I got a quick .12" in a late PM shower. I'm glad to have it, but it's not enough to do much....

[skidog40]

was that a u-turn

[srainhoutx]

The ensembles continue to advertise well below normal pressures across the Western Gulf and Western Caribbean in the 9 to 15 day period. The afternoon Update from the Climate Prediction Center also is suggesting a deep trough across Central North America and normal to above normal rainfall across all of our Region into Mid September. The longer range beyond day 9 is very insistent of potential tropical mischief brewing in the Western Caribbean into the Western Gulf. It appears a monsoonal gyre may develop and has some support from the MJO. This is day 8 that I have counted that the ensembles have had an unsettled pattern potential setting up. We will see.

[jasons2k]

Happy for the folks on the NW side getting some rain. Sure wish it was a little more to the east, though. I can hear the thunder. So close...yet so far away.

[BlueJay]

Maybe it's coming your way Jasons. We just received 0.27 inches. I feel lucky indeed!

[jasons2k]

Nada. Just went for a walk by the office, which is in the Waterway district. There are still a couple of undeveloped plats with native trees and plants. I noticed virtually all the vines and most of the shrubs and smaller trees are wilting. They could really use a drink, and something more than a 5-minute passing shower.

[BlueJay]

Nada. Just went for a walk by the office, which is in the Waterway district. There are still a couple of undeveloped plats with native trees and plants. I noticed virtually all the vines and most of the shrubs and smaller trees are wilting. They could really use a drink, and something more than a 5-minute passing shower.

very sad

[srainhoutx]

As has been mentioned over the last several days, the ensembles have been suggesting unusually low pressures developing across the Western Caribbean and the Western Gulf in the medium to long range. There is now growing indications that a Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave may develop (cckw) as well as a favorable MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) pattern that tends to increase rising air in the Tropics allowing for potential enhanced tropical development is moving E across the Pacific Ocean. It is also noteworthy that a deep trough is expect across the Central United States later next week and that would suggest a stalled frontal boundary across our Region (Southern Plains and possibly into Texas/Louisiana). It is a bit too soon to expect a strong Fall front to make it this far S in Mid September, but conditions may well develop for enhance Tropical development from the SW Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico. It is too soon to know with any certainty exactly how things may develop in the Day 7+ Range, but the ensembles have remained very insistent that a pattern somewhat conducive for Tropical development may increase. Peak Season for Tropical Development in nearing, so we will continue to closely watch the pattern carefully over the next several days.

The attachment 09042014 00Z GEFS 192 gfs-ens_mslpa_sd_watl_33.png is no longer available

[texoz]

Numerous showers already showing up on radar along and east/south of I-35 from Austin down to Brownsville. I think today's rain chances look a lot better than yesterday for C. Tex.

[tireman4]

Back to teasing us again, look at the snippet from the DFW NWS. This was their AFD. It seems the Euro is latching onto this and will not let go....

**
WE ARE STILL WATCHING THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR A POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT THAT WOULD
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DEVELOP A STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESPONSE...TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTS IN WEAKENING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN THE GFS.
HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DO BRING A FRONT INTO THE REGION BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY AS THIS
COULD BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT FRONT OF THE FALL METEOROLOGICAL
SEASON.

We shall see. I would love to quote Sraintx and say, "Stepping down"

[Portastorm]

You've got to wait a few months for those "stepping down" posts, tireman. Too early for those right now.

However, I suspect we'll see a number of those srain type posts as we move into autumn.

[tireman4]

A fella can dream Porta. I want to dream of 50 degree highs with a cold north wind.

[Katdaddy]

A 30-40% chance of afternoon thunderstorms through the weekend. A few isolated showers already on radar similar the previous days. Watching an area of thunderstorms over the W Caribbean Sea. It has not been mentioned by the NHC yet but would not be surprised if later today it was added to the Tropical Weather Outlook. Its still many days out however the TX AFD's are mentioning the potential for the first real cold front late next week. Tireman may get his wish…….we shall see.

[tireman4]

You dang right Katdaddy my dear friend. I want that front. I need it. ( I am sure Wxman 57 will chime in any minute now!!). I can live with 85 and 65 now.

[ticka1]

You dang right Katdaddy my dear friend. I want that front. I need it. ( I am sure Wxman 57 will chime in any minute now!!). I can live with 85 and 65 now.

i got your bacm tireman - i want it no need it too!! bring on the cold front now!!!!

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1032 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

TXC201-051630-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0099.140905T1532Z-140905T1630Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
1032 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT

* AT 1030 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL RATES ARE APPROACHING 4 INCHES
PER HOUR AT TIMES. THIS HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PASADENA...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...SOUTH HOUSTON...GALENA PARK...
JACINTO CITY...CHANNELVIEW...CLOVERLEAF...SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...
HIGHLANDS...BARRETT...NORTHERN CLEAR LAKE...SHOREACRES...SAN
JACINTO STATE PARK...HUNTERWOOD...EAST HOUSTON...EL DORADO / OATES
PRAIRIE...SHELDON...NORTHSHORE AND ELLINGTON FIELD.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1210 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

TXZ199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-061715-
MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-
FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...
LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...
SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...
HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...
MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...
BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
1210 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

...ISOLATED FUNNELS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND SATURDAY...

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SHORT LIVED
FUNNELS AND WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS RESIDING OVERHEAD. THE MORE
FAVORABLE TIMES FOR THESE TO OCCUR ARE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE...THESE FUNNELS TYPICALLY DO NOT EXTEND
TO THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE TORNADOS. HOWEVER...KEEP AN EYE TO THE
SKY AND SHOULD YOU OBSERVE A FUNNEL TO BEGIN DESCENDING...TAKE
COVER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AS THEY CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS
THEY TOUCH DOWN.

MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN WELL CLEAR OF ANY WATERSPOUTS AS WELL. THEY
CAN PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING
ROUGH SEAS.

[unome]

an interesting post about the arctic front from this morning on WPC's Facebook page, but not real cool for us: https://www.facebook.com/NWSWPC

It appears that a batch of very chilly air, currently located in the arctic region of northern Canada, will make its way south into the northern part of the U.S. by the latter half of next week. Low temperatures are forecast to drop to near freezing in Montana by next Thursday morning and there is even the potential to see some snow along the eastern slopes of the northern Rockies (see top figure)! High temperatures are forecast to stay below 50 degrees (lower-left), which are more than 20 degrees below normal (lower-right figure). You can watch the forecast progression of the cool air at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/maxloop.html and http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/minloop.html

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1220 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1220 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER TEXAS CITY. THE TORNADIC STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.
MULTIPLE FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EASTERN LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...DICKINSON...KEMAH...CLEAR LAKE
SHORES...SAN LEON AND BACLIFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[jasons2k]

I don't recall being so close to decent rain showers, and missing out so many times by mere miles, in a very long time. I think my pavement got barely moist once this week, that's it.