September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

[tireman4]

Amazing weather. This is, as Sraintx would call, Chamber of Commerce weather. Get out and enjoy it. I am now waiting on the next front. . Summer is basically, over. Wxman 57 will have to go into hibernation.

[srainhoutx]

What a gorgeous day out there. No humidity and cooler temperatures. We've made it through another summer and it has been much wetter than the previous 3 years. The Drought Index should be greatly improved across most of the Lone Star State with the next update. I am seeing 'hints' of that first true Fall cold front on the horizon as we begin October. But that will be another Topic.

[BlueJay]

A cold snap may encourage some beautiful fall color. Some of nature's eye candy, for sure.

[Texaspirate11]

Im already missing summer......

[Katdaddy]

Another nice Fall morning across TX. A deeping upper trough over W TX will begin to increase moisture across the Middle and Upper TX Coast beginning tomorrow leading to a 20-30% chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the weekend. Models diverge over the weekend thus increased rain chances could be possible.

[djmike]

Another cool 57F this morning here in the Beaumont area. Beautiful blue skies and no humidity. Its going to be a great week ahead. Nice little treat for us that recieved so much rain over the last week. Can't beat that! Have a great day!

[Katdaddy]

Low-level moisture return underway this morning with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the coastal waters and coastal counties. 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms along coastal areas and 50% across Houston metro today with some isolated heavy rain possible. Rain chances drop off but continue through Saturday night with some isolated thunderstorms possible.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Fairly robust moisture return overnight leading to coastal showers and thunderstorm development this morning.

Old frontal boundary which has brought several days of comfortable weather is starting to lose its definition over the Gulf and become overrun with returning moisture. Upper level low that has developed over W TX is helping to open the Gulf of Mexico while a large scale ridge along the east coast is attempting to keep dry air in place over the region. Two air masses reside over the region with a dry air mass with dewpoints in the 50’s over our NE counties and a returning moist air mass with dewpoints into the 70’s around Matagorda Bay. Old frontal boundary over the Gulf has formed into a westward moving trough axis and will push inland along the entire TX coast today allowing deep tropical moisture to return with PWS surging into the 1.9-2.2 inch range. Radar confirms all this with ongoing activity along the coast and offshore moving quickly toward the WNW. Activity is fighting against the dry air as it moves inland and is dissipating within about 40 miles of the coast.

Moist air mass will gradually win out and overspread much of the region today allowing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Will focus the greatest chances and most coverage along and south of I-10 and around Matagorda Bay where moisture levels are the highest. Expect several waves of showers and storms to move inland off the Gulf throughout the day. With high PWS air mass will likely see heavy rainfall in cells, but fast forward motions should keep any flooding threat to a minimum.

Main moisture axis shifts into the middle and lower TX coast overnight into Friday while disturbances eject ENE and NE along the coast from the upper low over W TX. Expect more concentrated and widespread rainfall to focus along the middle and lower TX coast from Matagorda Bay southward tonight into Friday with SE TX on the northern edge of the deeper moisture. Will hold onto at least a 30% rain chance for Friday before weak ridging develops over the weekend and rain chances fall to around 20%.

Tides:
Still dealing with the steady ENE flow across the northern Gulf as a function of large high pressure along the US east coast. Tides continue to run 1.0-1.5 feet above normal and new moon is resulting in higher than normal average tides. Combined effects or both lunar pull and wind forces will push total water levels to near 3.0 ft this afternoon on the Gulf facing beaches. Could be close to overwash on some of the beaches and access roads on the west end of Galveston Island, Surfside, and Bolivar. Around Matagorda Bay tides will around closer to 1.5-2.5 ft of total water level rise which should not be much of an issue. Could see water up to the base of the dunes at Mustang Island and along the Padre Island Gulf beaches at times of high tide. Guidance shows highest tides this afternoon with slowly falling levels into the weekend, but some beaches could continue to have problems at times of high tide Friday and Saturday.

[srainhoutx]

What a gorgeous day out there. No humidity and cooler temperatures. We've made it through another summer and it has been much wetter than the previous 3 years. The Drought Index should be greatly improved across most of the Lone Star State with the next update. I am seeing 'hints' of that first true Fall cold front on the horizon as we begin October. But that will be another Topic.

Updated Drought Index released. Odile's remnants put a big dent in the Texas Drought.

September 14th:

The attachment 20140916_txdought_none.png is no longer available

September 23rd:

[kayci]

A little rain here in Alvin this morning, hearing thunder in the distance.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/25/14 1456Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1445Z JS
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...MESOANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DATA POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG SE TX COAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...A LOOK AT THE ANIMATION OF THE BLENDED TPW
PRODUCT AND GOES SOUNDER PRODUCTS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
OVER THE CENT TX COAST WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RISEN TO
AROUND 1.75" THIS MORNING WITH REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATING AT LEAST
20KTS OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC
FLOW AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH CIRCULATION CENTER OVER S CENT TX
WHICH PLACES SE TX IN A FAVORABLY DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT. AT THE SFC,
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXISTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF CENT TX WITH MAX
JUST OFFSHORE WHERE INVERTED SFC TROF EXISTS. WITH CONDITIONS PRESENT
FOR DECENT LIFT, THERE HAS BEEN A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OFFSHORE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO WITH A FEW
CELLS NOW SPREADING INLAND OVER THE AREA CENTERED AROUND BRAZORIA COUNTY.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-2100Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, EXPECT THE INCREASING
OFFSHORE ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE COASTAL REGION OF CENT TX LIKELY
IMPACTING THE AREA FROM MATAGORDA TO GALVESTON COUNTIES. THE INCREASINGLY
HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN RATES OF LOCALLY 2-3"/HR WITH THE
STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS. THE OVERALL MEAN FLOW OF GREATER THAN 10KTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MOVEMENT WITH THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS, THOUGH
TRAINING DOES APPEAR LIKELY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WITH CONGEALING/MERGING
CELLS LEADING TO A BRIEF SPIKE IN THE RAIN RATES TO MAYBE GREATER THAN
3"/HR. LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3" OR MORE ARE VERY POSSIBLE WITH EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR VERY ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5" NEAR THE COAST. THE THREAT
MAY PERSIST EVEN WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE GOES SOUNDER/BLENDED TPW PRODUCT
DOES SHOW THIS DRIER AIR NOW WEST OF 90W OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
.

[jasons2k]

Tease.

[unome]

200 animation loop, speed it up & watch it roll away...

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... -N0Q-1-200

[unome]

well it certainly is beautiful weather for the last day of Sept

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=brief_support

[ticka1]

except for the mosquitos - they are bad again!

[BlueJay]

So long September 2014!
I can report 6.96 inches of rain for this month and 33.59 inches so far this year. Excellent!

Where does the time go? How long until summer?

On to October...

[Ptarmigan]

except for the mosquitos - they are bad again!

The cooler weather should put a lid on mosquitos.