September 2014: Seasonably Warm & Dry To End The Month

[tireman4]

But wait, there is more teasing......

http://blog.chron.com/weather/files/201 ... _tx_33.jpg

[jasons2k]

And like a cartoon - foiled again!

[BlueJay]

phantom radar

[srainhoutx]

I had a gusty thundershower mid day. That.make day 3 for at least some rain (totals around a 1/2 inch for 3 days). Saturday afternnoon/evening may offer a bit better coverage as that weak frontal boudary nears College Station to Huntsville tomorrow night. The SW Caribbean continues to fester today and may be worth monitoring later next week. The Euro is not that eenthusiastic with bringing that cold front all the way through late next week as the coldest air moves of to the E of Texas. Keep an eye on potential tropical mischief next week across the NW Caribbean into the Bay of Campeche. There continues to be a lot of deep tropical moisture pooling across those areas and a general unsettled pattern is indicated for the next 10 days or so.

[BlueJay]

Cue the thunder

[jasons2k]

I can hear the thunder from that beautiful cell to my SW. This is just torture.

[unome]

Saturday, Sept 6th, Weather Briefing from HGX, so glad they do these

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=brief_support

[srainhoutx]

I know there is a lot of interest in the shot of colder air arriving next week across the Plains and the Mid West. This first Fall season cold front looks like it may push as far S as N Texas and perhaps Central Texas before the main energy shifts E. The fly in the ointment may well be the monsoonal trough that extends from the Eastern Pacific into the Western Caribbean and Western Gulf. The generally unsettled pattern we have been monitoring across the SW/W Caribbean continues to fester and it is possible that some deep tropical moisture from the Caribbean may enter the Western Gulf next week and tangle up with that approaching frontal boundary. The 12Z GFS is suggesting increasing rain chances as both of the features combine and there may be additional tropical moisture entangled from Eastern Pacific Norbert as it spins down and transitions to post tropical off the Southern California/Northern Baja Peninsula Pacific Coast.

[srainhoutx]

Storms developing along a weak cold front across Central Texas this evening that is tapping into Dolly remnant tropical moisture across Mexico. Further S along Coastal Louisiana and Texas, high PW's and an upper air disturbance in the NW Gulf is enhancing shower/storm activity. As the front pulls up stationary tomorrow near SE/S Central Texas and Louisiana, expect additional showers and storms to develop.

[BlueJay]

We got 0.08 inches of rain late this afternoon.
It's nice and cool for my evening walk.

[Kludge]

Overall... another Bust on the local forecast for precipitation.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if, every few days or so, the NWS would issue a humble "hindcast" message...

Something like.... "we expected _____ would materialize, and it didn't"... but we learned from that, and will sharpen our forecast methodology in the future"

Let's not hold our breath.

We pay taxes, and get mediocre forecasts.

If we want insightful, well researched forecasts, we have to pay a premium.

This is not fair.

[Andrew]

Overall... another Bust on the local forecast for precipitation.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if, every few days or so, the NWS would issue a humble "hindcast" message...

Something like.... "we expected _____ would materialize, and it didn't"... but we learned from that, and will sharpen our forecast methodology in the future"

Let's not hold our breath.

We pay taxes, and get mediocre forecasts.

If we want insightful, well researched forecasts, we have to pay a premium.

This is not fair.

[srainhoutx]

It appears that portions of Brazos, Burleson, Houston, Polk and San Jacinto Counties received anywhere from 1-3 inches of rain overnight. The weak diffused frontal boundary is stalled across the Hill Country into Central Louisiana with outflow boundaries abundant across portions of S Central/SE/E Texas extending into Louisiana. The weak upper air disturbance in the NW Gulf continues to fire storms along the Coastal areas. With daytime heating and no capping as well as convective temperatures in the mid 80's, isolated strong slow moving storms may develop and are capable of dropping 1 to inch per hour rainfall rates if your are lucky enough to get under one of those stronger storms. I picked up .70 inches of rain yesterday afternoon from a slow moving thunderstorm and that puts me just over an inch over the past 5 days. Some places received much more that that while others receive nothing.

There is still so timing issues regarding that cold front that has received some attention late week. The GFS is faster bringing the front across Texas on Thursday while the Euro is about 24 hours slower. Rain chances along that front may be possible as it pushes across our Region. Meanwhile daily isolated showers and storms appear likely until next weekend when we may dry out and benefit from some lower dewpoints and slightly 'cooler' air.

[tireman4]

This is Steve McCauley. He is a met in Dallas. I am just putting this as a teaser. Even if we do not get this front (next weekend or all that is attributed to it), I am hearing rumblings that the next front after it could really be something...

Steve McCauley teasing about what lies after next weekends cold front:

"Our cold front is on schedule to arrive by Thursday bringing showers and storms through Friday to at least half of north Texas along with brisk north winds with temperature struggling to get out of the 70s on Friday and Saturday!

And if that isn't cool enough for you, just wait until the following week."

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
127 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

TXZ213-237-238-071915-
BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-HARRIS TX-
127 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON... SOUTHEASTERN
HARRIS... AND NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 125 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER WESTERN LEAGUE CITY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL
WAS REPORTED IN THIS STORM. RAINFALL OF 1.04 INCHES OCCURRED IN ONE
HOUR AT CLEAR CREEK AND FM 528. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN
HOUR WILL CONTINUE.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...ALVIN...
WEBSTER...MANVEL...SOUTHWESTERN CLEAR LAKE...SOUTHERN SOUTH BELT /
ELLINGTON...NASSAU BAY...IOWA COLONY...HILLCREST AND ELLINGTON FIELD.

[srainhoutx]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
142 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

TXC039-167-201-072045-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0111.140907T1842Z-140907T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-
142 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 140 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR
WITH RAIN GAUGES AT CLEAR CREEK AND I-45 REPORTING 1.6 INCHES OF
RAIN IN AN HOUR. CLEAR CREEK AND FM 528 REPORTED 1.2 INCHES IN AN
HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN PASADENA...PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...
FRIENDSWOOD...ALVIN...DICKINSON...SANTA FE...SOUTHWESTERN
SEABROOK...WEBSTER...MANVEL...KEMAH...CLEAR LAKE...SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...NASSAU BAY...TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE...EL
LAGO...IOWA COLONY...CLEAR LAKE SHORES AND HILLCREST.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
201 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

TXZ213-238-071945-
GALVESTON TX-HARRIS TX-
201 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

...NORTHERN GALVESTON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 200 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER DICKINSON OR 1 MILE EAST OF NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON
OFFICE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WAS OBSERVED AT THE FORECAST
OFFICE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...SOUTHERN FRIENDSWOOD...DICKINSON...LA
MARQUE...SANTA FE...WEBSTER...HITCHCOCK AND KEMAH.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
158 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

TXC039-072100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0112.140907T1858Z-140907T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA TX-
158 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WEST CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 156 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. STORMS ARE
PRODUCING RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
WEST COLUMBIA...HOLIDAY LAKES...NORTHWESTERN BAILEY'S PRAIRIE...
BONNEY...NORTHERN WILD PEACH VILLAGE AND DAMON.

[srainhoutx]

Portions of Montgomery County may need an Advisory soon.

[Katdaddy]

Lots of intense cloud to ground lightening (CGs) and very heavy rain along with some gusty winds in W League City. Picked up 1.59".