November 2014: Nice Seanonal Thanksgiving Ahead

[Karen]

Is the south side going to get anything looks like everything is moving well north of Houston.

[Heat Miser]

Is the south side going to get anything looks like everything is moving well north of Houston.

Few minutes from now we'll get a little storm, but the main event is a few hours away.

[Portastorm]

Approaching 3.5" of rain here in SW Austin. Current line of convection along I-35 corridor efficient rain producer. Multiple low water crossings closed around town.

[unome]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=qpferd

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
902 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...VALID 03Z SUN NOV 23 2014 - 00Z MON NOV 24 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...CENTRAL/EASTERN TX ALONG THE GULF COAST...

A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS ASSURED THIS
PERIOD FROM EASTERN TX EASTWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE GULF COAST
STATES...AHEAD OF A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROF LIFTING FROM
VICINITY OF THE BIG BEND INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF IT.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE BIG
BEND SYSTEM EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
THEN TURNING IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY...AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER JET DIGS THRU THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 SYSTEM WILL
RAISE PW VALUES TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN..AND
THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A DEVELOPING DIFFLUENT
UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THESE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER PRETTY MUCH
ALL OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS OPPOSED TO THE LAST RUNS..THE
NEW HIRES QPFS HAVE SPED UP THRU THE GULF COAST SO THAT THEY ARE
NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS STRONG LIFT AND HIGH MOISTURE...BUT WILL ALSO BE
QUITE PROGRESSIVE...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
WHAT ARE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE AREA. STILL...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH RAINS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF AND AT LEAST SOME 2-3+ INCH TOTALS FARTHER EAST
ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST WHERE 50+KTS OF LOW LEVEL JET
ARE FORECAST.

TERRY

[Katdaddy]

..A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CST
FOR EASTERN CALDWELL...EASTERN GONZALES AND NORTH CENTRAL DEWITT
COUNTIES...

AT 928 PM CST...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF LYTTON SPRINGS TO TILMON TO GONZALES TO 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CUERO TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YORKTOWN...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HAMON...THOMPSONVILLE...LITTLE NEW YORK AND GLAZE CITY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

[srainhoutx]

What a great storm system for most of Texas. We sorely needed a good soaking rain event after very dry October which is usually one of our 'wettest' months. El Nino is showing signs of developing. Central and N Texas has seen some very beneficial rains without the damage. The sound of night time rumbles of thunder is something we've been missing. It looks like the old sub tropical jet is going to remain active. That bodes well for our longterm drought situation. Hopefully most everyone received some much need rain.

[srainhoutx]

Saturday storm system recap from Jeff:

Very impressive meso/wake low crossed the coastal waters overnight resulting in a period of strong sustained winds offshore and near the coast of 40-60mph. In fact the system was so intense that it produce a fairly impressive storm surge event on the SW LA coast early this morning. Tide levels at Cameron, LA went from 3.07 ft at 230am to 5.83ft at 307am (37 minutes) resulting in rapid overtopping of the coastline and coastal flooding within the cities of Cameron and Holly Beach. By 348am with strong west winds behind the wake low in progress the tide levels fell to 1.32ft or over a 4.0ft decrease in just over 30 minutes. All of this significant tidal variation took place over the course of just over an hour.

The intense surface feature produce a swatch of strong winds from off the mid TX coast across the NW Gulf of Mexico as recorded by numerous oil platforms overnight. Some of the reports are listed below.

San Antonio, Bexar: KSAT airport ASOS recorded 63mph.

Dripping Springs, Hays: 6.44 inches of rainfall per CoCoRaHS report

Fayetteville, Fayette: Overtopping of Brushy Creek at FM 2503…10 motorists stranded.

Buda, Hays: 5.16 inches of rainfall at Onion Creek at Buda

3ESE Brenham, Washington: funnel cloud sited by public over the City of Chappell Hill.

Oil Platform 49 miles SSE of Matagorda Is: 49mph wind gust

Matagorda Is: 44mph wind gust

Mustang Oil Platform 45 miles SSE of Matagorda Bay: 53mph wind gust

Marine Platform 19 miles S of Sabine Pass: 56mph wind gust

Apache Platform 70 miles SSE of Cameron LA: peak wind gust of 54mph. Recorded wind gusts at or above 40kts for over 2 hours straight.

Sabine Pass, Jefferson: 45mph wind gust

Sabine Pass, Jefferson: storm surge 3.81 ft at 224am at NOS site

Cameron, Cameron: storm surge 5.83 ft at 306am. Numerous streets flooded with dumpsters, tree limbs, ice machines, boats, cars, and other debris left behind on streets.

Freshwater City, Vermillion: storm surge 5.98 ft at 400am

Holly Beach, Cameron: storm surge overtopped HWY 82 and flooded all city streets

[Ptarmigan]

Saturday storm system recap from Jeff:

Very impressive meso/wake low crossed the coastal waters overnight resulting in a period of strong sustained winds offshore and near the coast of 40-60mph. In fact the system was so intense that it produce a fairly impressive storm surge event on the SW LA coast early this morning. Tide levels at Cameron, LA went from 3.07 ft at 230am to 5.83ft at 307am (37 minutes) resulting in rapid overtopping of the coastline and coastal flooding within the cities of Cameron and Holly Beach. By 348am with strong west winds behind the wake low in progress the tide levels fell to 1.32ft or over a 4.0ft decrease in just over 30 minutes. All of this significant tidal variation took place over the course of just over an hour.

The intense surface feature produce a swatch of strong winds from off the mid TX coast across the NW Gulf of Mexico as recorded by numerous oil platforms overnight. Some of the reports are listed below.

San Antonio, Bexar: KSAT airport ASOS recorded 63mph.

Dripping Springs, Hays: 6.44 inches of rainfall per CoCoRaHS report

Fayetteville, Fayette: Overtopping of Brushy Creek at FM 2503…10 motorists stranded.

Buda, Hays: 5.16 inches of rainfall at Onion Creek at Buda

3ESE Brenham, Washington: funnel cloud sited by public over the City of Chappell Hill.

Oil Platform 49 miles SSE of Matagorda Is: 49mph wind gust

Matagorda Is: 44mph wind gust

Mustang Oil Platform 45 miles SSE of Matagorda Bay: 53mph wind gust

Marine Platform 19 miles S of Sabine Pass: 56mph wind gust

Apache Platform 70 miles SSE of Cameron LA: peak wind gust of 54mph. Recorded wind gusts at or above 40kts for over 2 hours straight.

Sabine Pass, Jefferson: 45mph wind gust

Sabine Pass, Jefferson: storm surge 3.81 ft at 224am at NOS site

Cameron, Cameron: storm surge 5.83 ft at 306am. Numerous streets flooded with dumpsters, tree limbs, ice machines, boats, cars, and other debris left behind on streets.

Freshwater City, Vermillion: storm surge 5.98 ft at 400am

Holly Beach, Cameron: storm surge overtopped HWY 82 and flooded all city streets

This storm produced storm surge? That is unheard of outside of any hurricane.

[ticka1]

when will winter temps return?????

[sambucol]

when will winter temps return?????

^^^what Ticka said!!

[srainhoutx]

The cold front cleared the Coast overnight and temperatures will be more seasonal today instead of the 80F we hit yesterday in the wake of Saturday's storm. Another shot of colder air arrives tonight with some clouds, but the dry air at the surface will prohibit any moisture with this next front. We will see a couple of chilly nights before the flow turns more zonal and mild Pacific air takes over to end November. Thanksgiving still looks fantastic across Texas and Louisiana.

December starts a week from today. Perhaps someone would like to start a new Topic and we can look ahead to see if old man winter will return before Christmas. Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

[BlueJay]

What a difference a day makes!
Yesterday afternoon we were wearing short sleeved shirts and decided to kick the A/C on for a bit.

But, today, its back to long johns and sweaters.

Gotta love Texas weather!

Tomorrow's cold morning will get me in the mood to cook big for Thanksgiving!

[srainhoutx]

Another chilly morning across our Region with temperatures still running below normal for this time of year. The departures for the month of November will provide for a colder November than last year and end the month well below normal. This will mean that November 2014 will rank just above one of the coldest November on record (1976) and we have seen significant changes to the drought index where only N Texas is experiencing extreme drought conditions and slightly more than 34% of Texas is no longer in a drought category. That is a tremendous improvement in our multi year drought situation and Central Texas has seen a huge improvement which is very welcomed.

[srainhoutx]

Here is the November Monthly Seasonal Climatology Report for SE Texas issued this morning. If you believed that November was 'colder' than normal, you are correct!

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 AM CST THU DEC 4 2014

           ...NOVEMBER 2014 COLDER THAN NORMAL... 

THE FIRST TWO AND A HALF WEEKS OF NOVEMBER WERE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WITH THE PEAK OF THE COLD AIR OCCURRING BETWEEN NOVEMBER 12TH AND
NOVEMBER 19TH. THE CITY OF HOUSTON RECORDED SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 58 DEGREES. THE ONLY OTHER TIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 58 DEGREES DURING NOVEMBER
OCCURRED IN 1907. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BETWEEN 12TH AND THE 19TH. THE AREA ALSO RECEIVED
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WITH A BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION OCCURRING. ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES WERE OBSERVED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH/ SOUTHWEST
WHILE BELOW NORMAL VALUES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS
OF THE CWA.

HOW COLD HAS IT TRULY BEEN THOUGH. COMPARED TO THE 1981 - 2010 
NORMALS IT HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF NOVEMBER. THE CITY OF 
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) WAS BELOW NORMAL FOR 19/30 DAYS FOR NOVEMBER 
OR 63.3% OF THE TIME. THE CITY OF HOUSTON (IAH) WAS BELOW NORMAL FOR 
21/30 DAYS FOR NOVEMBER OR 70% OF THE TIME. THE CITY OF GALVESTON 
WAS BELOW NORMAL FOR 18/30 DAYS FOR NOVEMBER OF 60% OF THE TIME. 
THESE THREE SITES ALL FINISHED THE MONTH WITH TEMPERATURES 3.5 TO 5 
DEGREES BELOW THE 1981- 2010 MEAN. SO COMPARED TO THIS 30 YEAR 
PERIOD IT HAS BEEN COLD... BUT HOW ABOUT SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN 
KEPT? IT TURNS OUT THAT ALL THREE OF THESE SITES DID NOT MAKE THE 
TOP TEN COLDEST NOVEMBERS IN THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORD TIME FRAME. THE 
TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE FOR THIS YEAR AND 
COMPARES IT TO THE COLDEST NOVEMBER AND THE TENTH COLDEST NOVEMBER.

NOVEMBER 2014 AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

                      2014 NOV         COLDEST NOV      10TH COLDEST NOV
SITE                  AVG TEMP(RANK)   AVG TEMP(YEAR)   AVG TEMP(YEAR)
CLL                   55.6(10TH)       51.2(1976)       55.6(2014)
IAH                   57.4(15TH*)      51.8(1976)       56.8(1992)
GLS                   61.5(35TH)       53.9(1880)       58.9(1979)

* DENOTES A TIE


BELOW IS THE TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL DATA FOR THE FIRST AND SECOND ORDER
CLIMATE SITES FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DEPARTURES ARE FROM 1981-2010 NORMALS.

                      NOVEMBER 2014 DATA

        AVG     AVG     MONTHLY            MONTHLY       
SITE    HIGH    LOW     DAILY   DEP     RAIN     DEP     
CLL     65.8    45.4    55.6    -5.2    5.89     +2.67
IAH     67.6    47.2    57.4    -4.9    3.40     -0.94
HOU     67.8    49.9    58.8    -4.4    4.44     +0.12   
GLS     67.7    55.2    61.5    -3.6    3.91     -0.60
CXO     65.6    43.3    54.4    -4.7    2.56     -2.76
UTS     65.7    44.6    55.2    -4.3    5.81     +1.37
DWH     67.3    45.5    56.4    -3.6    2.66     -2.06
SGR     68.5    48.2    58.3    -3.3    3.04     -1.55 
LBX     67.8    47.3    57.6    -4.6    4.59     +0.06
PSX     68.3    50.7    59.5    -4.3    4.07     +0.11
LVJ     68.6    50.2    59.4    -3.1    3.75     -1.03  
HGX     67.3    48.6    58.0    -3.7    4.62     -0.29    

HERE IS THE MONTHLY RAINFALL DATA FROM THE NWS CO-OP NETWORK:

                NOVEMBER       NOVEMBER       NOVEMBER    
LOCATION        RAIN           NORMAL         DEPARTURE

ANAHUAC    4.52   4.21  +0.31
BAY CITY        5.50   4.25  +1.25
BAYTOWN         5.57           5.20  +0.37
BELLVILLE  3.38   4.18           -0.80
BRENHAM  8.70   4.28  +4.42
CLEVELAND   3.94   5.68  -1.74 
COLUMBUS    3.22   4.42  -1.20
CROCKETT  6.27    4.09  +2.18   
DANEVANG    1.46   4.05  -2.59
EDNA       4.62   3.68  +0.94
EL CAMPO   4.06   5.20  -1.14
FREEPORT    5.88   4.83  +1.05
HOU WESTBURY    4.18   4.88  -0.70
LIBERTY     3.60   5.25  -1.65
LIVINGSTON   1.34   5.15  -3.81
KATY         2.77   4.89  -2.12
MADISONVILLE    7.11   4.38           +2.73
MATAGORDA       9.17   3.86  +5.31
NEW CANEY  NA   5.21  NA
RICHMOND    2.18   5.22  -3.04
SOMERVILLE  5.48   3.53  +1.95
WASH ST PARK5.56   3.80  +1.76
W COLUMBIA   5.32NANA
WHARTON   4.07   4.79  -0.72

23/43