November 2014: Nice Seanonal Thanksgiving Ahead

[tireman4]

The clouds kept me from winning the first freeze contest at work. I have the earliest date of any entry (Nov. 21st), so any freeze before then and I win. I've been trying to win one of these for over 15 years.

I think you will have another shot next week

Man, there has got to be a lot on money in the pot for you to change your avatar on S2K or you are going bi-polar again...care to divulge how much? He he he

[Katdaddy]

SE TX temps to rise into the upper 50s inland to low 60s along the coastal areas. Increasing rain and thunderstorm chances this afternoon as a low pressure area moves up the TX Coast. S of the warm front areas will have a marginal risk of severe storms tonight. Currently this looks to be areas S and E of Highway 59. In addition these areas may pick up 1-3" of rain by Sunday night before a strong cold front pushes offshore.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Cold arctic air mass remains in place over the region this morning with another colder surge heading for the US border out of Canada.

Coastal trough and surface low pressure system starting to take shape along the lower TX coast will bring an active 36 hours to the region.

Temperatures this morning running a solid 10 degrees above Friday morning values. Freeze line Friday morning ran roughly along US 59 north of Houston to FM 2920 to Waller then WSW to Columbus. Mid level cloud deck hampered central and coastal counties freezing conditions Friday morning…but we will all have another shot next week. Surface arctic dome is attempting to modify, but increasing ENE to NE winds will help lock in the cold air today. Clouds have never really cleared out much since last Tuesday and will only increase with thickening and lowering today as moisture is pulled northward over the surface cold pool. Think surface dry layer will take much of today to saturate before rainfall becomes a concern…likely not until this evening. Patchy fog and some drizzle may develop by mid to late afternoon as the surface warm front moves toward the coast.

Strong short wave will help to energize the coastal low tonight and bring it near/just inland over the upper TX coast. Warm front progresses toward the coast and possibly inland as far as US 59 overnight into Sunday with significantly warmer temperatures (60’s) south of that boundary, in fact there may be a fairly impressive temperature gradient across the area early Sunday. Low level shear values are maximized late tonight into early Sunday along and south of US 59 and if any of the elevated storms can work toward the surface and take advantage of the strong low level shear an isolated severe storm will be possible. Main threats will be wind damage and isolated tornadoes.

Widespread rain will blanket much of the area from late tonight through most of Sunday with heavy rainfall certainly possible. Rainfall amounts have been increased in the past 24 hours and now suggest an average of 1-3 inches is possible across the region with the heaviest rain likely near and south of the warm frontal boundary.

Secondary arctic surge with temperatures over NW Canada currently well below zero will roar southward behind this storm system and off the TX coast late Sunday. Very strong cold air advection will result in tumbling temperatures by Sunday evening likely from the 50’s and 60’s into the 30’s and 40’s with strong winds. Gale Watch is in effect for the Gulf waters and a Gale Warning will likely be needed as very strong NW winds develop under the building arctic high and models showing 925mb winds of 40-45kts Sunday night over the coastal bend into the Gulf waters. A third weaker short wave will move across mainly the northern part of the state Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Models are a little more aggressive with the onset and intensity of the cold air advection which brings P-type into question for Sunday afternoon and evening mainly across north TX. Expect a rain/snow line to develop and move southward Sunday afternoon as the air column cools. A mixture of might rain/flurries may extend as far south as the Hill Country Sunday evening. Current thinking is that the profiles over SE TX will still be too warm for any P-type mixture Sunday night as the rain ends.

If clouds can clear out Monday then a widespread freeze is likely by Tuesday morning with lows in the upper 20’s and lower 30’s. As we saw yesterday however cloud cover will play havoc with the overnight lows.

A sustained warming tend looks likely by the end of next week with southerly flow returning along with clouds and rain chances. In fact temperatures may warm into the lower 70’s by next Friday as this arctic outbreak is dislodged.

[srainhoutx]

The Updated SPC Day 1 Outlook now suggests a Marginal chance of surface based storms along the Upper Texas Coast. Some of these storms may approach severe limits and possibly include rotating cellular characteristics as the warm front moves inland. Elevated storms are possible N of the warm front as the Coastal low/trough develops tonight into Sunday.

[jasons2k]

Every time, every bleepin' time:

THE NAM12 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 09-15Z SUNDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER HI-RES MODELS
SHUNT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EAST OF AREA TAF SITES. WILL MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT TAF REASONING WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF SOLN.
IF THE SHORT TERM MODELS VERIFY...WILL BE MAKING SOME RADICAL
REVISIONS AT 06Z.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:


Strong arctic cold front heading for SE TX.

 

Period of very strong winds likely this evening and overnight as arctic boundary moves offshore.

 

Coastal surface trough and warm front has stalled across SE TX late this morning with drizzle, fog, and light rain ongoing over much of the area. Temperatures ESE of the warm front have risen into the lower 60’s while north and west of the warm front temperatures have not moved from the 40’s and 50’s since yesterday morning. It is currently 15 in Amarillo with heavy snow while Brownsville is 77. A little closer comparison of the frontal changes is Lubbock at 22 versus Austin at 49. Not expecting much change in temperatures, sky cover, or drizzle until the arctic front arrives in the next 6-8 hours. Should see the arctic boundary reach College Station late afternoon and move off the coast by mid evening. Temperatures will tumble from the 40’s and 50’s into the 30’s behind the front with strong cold air advection. Freezing line will approach our northern counties overnight with advective freeze possible for both College Station and Huntsville.

 

Models continue to support very gusty winds this evening and overnight behind the front as the cold arctic air spreads across the area and the warmer Gulf waters. Sustained winds of 25-35mph with gust to 40-45mph will be possible this evening resulting in wind chills in the 20’s and 30’s. Gale Warning is in effect for all coastal waters with frequent gusts above gale force likely overnight into Monday.

 

Clouds will begin to clear on Monday from north to south as the arctic high builds into the area from the north, but cold air advection will result in high temperatures only reaching the upper 40’s to near 50. Guidance strongly pointing toward widespread freezing temperatures for most areas Tuesday morning with lows ranging from the mid 20’s to the lower 30’s. GFS is showing 27 at IAH Tuesday morning, but will temper than a few degrees and go with around 30 at IAH with upper 20’s surrounding the metro area. Freeze warning will be required for those locations that did not freeze last Friday (mainly along and south of I-10).

 

Cold arctic high begins to move eastward on Tuesday, but warming will be slow and another light freeze appears possible Wednesday morning.

 

Late week pattern will favor a fairly strong short wave approaching from the SW US with good warm air advection finally dislodging the cold arctic dome and allowing temperatures to rise into the 60’s and 70’s toward the end of the week. Rain chances will be on the rise also as moisture increases off the Gulf of Mexico and interacts with disturbances in the SW flow aloft.

 

 

[skidog40]

Time for some snow

[Andrew]

Not to get ahead of ourselves here and downplay the freezing temps tonight and tomorrow, early indications are that towards this weekend into early next week we could see some strong to severe storms across the area. Both the GFS and Euro have been hinting at a strong shortwave amplifying across the four corners region late this week, pushing into West Texas as a mid level winds really start to ramp up. Really seeing a lot of signs that strong vertical shearing could be placed across the area with a strong southerly return flow at the surface. While it is still many days off, this is definitely something to keep an eye on.

On another note, things tonight look cold across the area with freezing temperatures already showing up in the northern counties of SE Texas. Tomorrow night (Monday Night/Tuesday Morning) has mix signs for how cold things could get. If skies stay as clear as they are now, temperatures could really drop out. GFS parallel shows temps reaching the mid to upper 20s across northern sections of SE Texas while closer to the coast 30-32 range seems likely.

[Katdaddy]

Its a cold breezy morning across SE TX with temps in the 30s inland and low 40s near the coast. Most areas seeing gusty N winds of 20-25MPH with 25-30MPH along the coast. Its very cold across NTX with temps in the low to mid 20s after last nights dusting of snow. Freeze Warnings will likely be required for portions of SE TX this afternoon. Inland areas of SE TX may see freezing temps Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Temps begin to warm Wednesday as the cold high pressure shifts E. Highs reaching the low 70s Thursday through the weekend however thunderstorm chances increase. Models are indicating the potential of a severe weather event next weekend across the Southern Plains but still to many days outs for any details.

[jasons2k]

It was a chilly, windy, 35 degrees on the way to work this morning.

And this may send some of you into cartwheels, but I also saw a few SNOW FLURRIES in the Imperial Oaks/Oak Ridge neighborhoods.

[srainhoutx]

First visible satellite imagery shows where some snow fell across the Central/Southern Plains into Texas. Now we have to worry that we may actually get the freeze and possibly hard freeze tonight across the Region.

[snowman65]

Just heard a report of a few flurries in Lumberton area...

[jasons2k]

Yeah, the radar loop confirms it. That little band had just enough lift for a few flakes.

[snowman65]

Too bad nothing is passing through tonight to work with the cold....

[srainhoutx]

HGX indicating they will issue a Freeze Warning tonight for the Central Counties of SE Texas.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, it's a sure deal for tonight. Another night of preps, at least this time it won't be for nothing.

[srainhoutx]

Very impressive signals for a significant storm growing for the upcoming weekend into early next week after our moderating temperatures later this week. The Euro and GFS are suggesting a very potent shortwave (upper air disturbance) drops SE into New Mexico and a powerful surface low (leeside cyclogenesis) develops across N Texas into Oklahoma. This suggests a potential severe weather event as the return flow off the Gulf cranks up as the storm develops o Saturday. A squall line looks possible marching E across the Northern Gulf Coast States as the powerful storm heads NE and deepens further near the Great Lakes. This very powerful late Fall season storm may pull down another shot of cold air in its wake deep into Texas during the first half of next week as we head toward Thanksgiving Day.

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[SLM87TX]

does the storm system look to be fast one or slow moving system? Any flood potential?

[srainhoutx]

does the storm system look to be fast one or slow moving system? Any flood potential?

The wave lengths are getting shorter or faster moving storm systems as we transition to a Wintertime pattern. That mean these fast moving systems will continue as we head into late November/early December and probably into January.

[BlueJay]

After reaching a high of 50F today, our temperature has already fallen to 48F. Time to cover the plants before the big chill.