November 2014: Nice Seanonal Thanksgiving Ahead

[TexasBreeze]

Especially with the tropics! I appreciate the reply!:)

[ticka1]

where is the rain?

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:


Large swath of moderate rainfall extends from SW TX into central TX and portions of SE TX this morning.

 

Surface cold front is shown by surface observations and local radar along a line from Lake Livingston to The Woodlands to Sugar Lane to Wharton to Victoria with temperatures behind the front in the 60’s and ahead of the front in the 70’s. The front is crawling ESE per latest radar loop our of Houston and with upper support completely gone the front is likely moving under the weight of the slightly colder air  to the northwest and weak convective outflow along the boundary. The front should stall this morning along or near the US 59 corridor and begin to wash out.

 

The heaviest rainfall overnight has been focused over SC TX around San Antonio with development along the portion of the front over SE TX meager at best. While moisture is plentiful overall lift is generally weak thus far due to a slower progression of the upper level trough eastward from the SW US/N MX. HRRR model has performed very well overnight showing little rainfall and frontal position and will follow this guidance closely. This model does show an increase in rainfall today as a disturbance ejects across the area. Rainfall will be mainly driven by lift over the top of the surface frontal slope and ahead of the 850mb front over N TX which favors areas along and north of US 59 for the nest rain chances.

 

Main upper trough will slowly progress eastward tonight into Thursday and bring more favorable lift into the area, especially along and south of I-10. Widespread rains will increase tonight and linger well into Thursday with potential for rain to extend into Friday around Matagorda Bay and across south Texas.

 

The threat for heavy rainfall does continue to exist today especially near the decaying frontal boundary mainly from cell training. Most widespread rainfall is likely tonight into Thursday, but this rainfall will likely be more light to moderate and while adding to overall storm totals not result in any significant flooding threat.

 

Entire upper level system should finally push east of the state by the weekend with cool and dry conditions in place.

 

Next Week:

High pressure along the US west coast begins to amplify allowing the southward push of a cold polar air mass. Fairly potent short wave will cross the plains early in the week sending this strong cold front southward. Early indications is that the air mass will be a mix of polar and arctic air so a significant downward trend in temperatures in likely by the middle of next week. Looks like the front will arrive into TX around Tuesday and blast off the coast Wednesday with strong cold air advection. Will have to keep a close eye on low temperature output post front as some guidance is suggesting freezing temperatures.    

 

 

 

 

[wxman57]

Looks like the heavy rain will stay to our west. I'd look for general amounts of .5 to 1.5 inches across Houston today. Many areas will see less than an inch. The really heavy rain will be from SAT/AUS southward through the lower RGV. They need it more than we do over there.

[BlueJay]

We had 0.48 inches of rain last night. Nice snoozing weather.

It's 63F and kind of chilly right now.

[Kingwood32]

Heck of a rain event were getting. ..once again hyped up and doesn't deliver

[srainhoutx]

Yeah...it's dry as a bone across Texas this morning...

[tireman4]

Yep Srain, nary a drop of rain in the whole entire state. Bet that is Virga...LOL

[ticka1]

We might not be getting the rain but at least it is falling in the area that need it more. I am sure we will see something from this if the frontal boundary moves any...if not - then its NEXT

[Montgomery]

Well, I figured I would jump in here with my first post! Looking forward to gaining knowledge from the folks on here and hopefully an entertaining remainder of fall and upcoming winter! Much of the state is getting some nice much needed steady rain. Great to see.

[Kingwood32]

I ment in Houston not the whole state..geez

[srainhoutx]

The latest 12Z Parallel GFS suggests near record November Arctic cold front as Super Typhoon Nuri transitions to a very deep and powerful extra tropical storm near the Bering Sea and changes the entire pattern across North America. Temperature anomalies suggest -20+ departures are possible across Texas.

[tireman4]

I ment in Houston not the whole state..geez

And we were kidding with you too....did you see the LOL...

[tireman4]

The latest 12Z Parallel GFS suggests near record November Arctic cold front as Super Typhoon Nuri transitions to a very deep and powerful extra tropical storm near the Bering Sea and changes the entire pattern across North America. Temperature anomalies suggest -20+ departures are possible across Texas.

11052014 12Z P GFS 198 gfsp_T2ma_namer_34.png

Stepping down, perhaps?

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/05/14 1711Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 1645Z HEEPS
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH
OVERRUNNING EVENT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BIG PICTURE SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE FROM T.D. VANCE AND THE PACIFIC STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC TO
THE NE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND CURRENTLY NOSING INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX
REGION. HAVE ALSO NOTED SOME INCREASED INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND S GULF COAST OF TX. TPW VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 1.5-2" ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TX, WITH BOTH KDRT AND KCRP ARE
REACHING 99TH PERCENTILE PW VALUES. WV IMAGERY INDICATED A CONTINUED
BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INDICATIVE
OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER PORTIONS OF S CNTRL TX, AND
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WAS MEAGER ON AREA 12Z RAOBS, THE PROLONGED AND
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A LONG
DURATION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1700-2300Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...BELIEVE LONG DURATION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES SINKING SLOWLY S THROUGH S TX. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD APPEARS
AS THOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS BEST JET
COUPLING APPEARS TO SHIFT NE OF THE AREA. STILL THOUGH WOULD ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO CONTINUE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES IN AREAS OF SLOW MOVING FRONTOGENETICALLY
ENHANCED SW/NE ORIENTED BANDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

[jasons2k]

Ha! I knew it was a bust before it happened. Jeff tipped his hand yesterday with the spoiler I posted.

Unfortunately, we're just not getting widespread 1-2" rains we were hoping for (at least not yet). I am glad folks in SC Texas are getting it, but it's been almost a full month now without rain for us. The trees really need it.

[Kingwood32]

I know y'all were just playing..no harm no foul

[srainhoutx]

Good steady rain here in NW Harris County and breezy Northerly winds have kicked up. Also just saw a low flying flock of Canadian Geese heading S across the Katy Prairie. They know something big is coming next week...

[tireman4]

Yep, they are smarter than we are. Nothing here in Gulfgate, but slowly the moisture is working its way East.

[texoz]

The latest 12Z Parallel GFS suggests near record November Arctic cold front as Super Typhoon Nuri transitions to a very deep and powerful extra tropical storm near the Bering Sea and changes the entire pattern across North America. Temperature anomalies suggest -20+ departures are possible across Texas.

11052014 12Z P GFS 198 gfsp_T2ma_namer_34.png

Whoa. On a good note, that'll definitely put a dent in the mosquito population.

Interestingly, looking back at the same time frame last year for Austin there was a front that dropped temps to -15 below average for a 2 day period (Nov. 13-14), then a couple days later swung back to 11 to 19 degrees above average. That was a wacky five day period. Nov. 13 saw 57/34 then Nov. 17th saw 90/67. Average is around 75/53.