January-Foggy Mornings/Cool & Cloudy To The Month

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srainhoutx
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Not a lot of changes overnight other than the Euro flipped back to a slower and stronger ejection of the Baja upper low along with the DGEX and the Canadian. The GFS is the most progressive of the guidance bringing in the Baja upper low quicker on Friday versus Saturday with the slower solutions. This big issue tomorrow will be the winds. After the Arctic front passes, winds gusting to 25 to near 30 MPH out of the NW should bring wind chill readings into the teens across SE Texas and single digits further N. Still keeping a close eye on the Hard Freeze potential, but if clouds are present in the mid/upper levels, we may not bottom out as much as we could if we had clear skies and no wind. A second front arrives Friday reinforcing the cold air already entrenched across our Region. Attention then turns to our West and we'll have to see what the Baja upper low does as well as the Coastal trough/wave Friday night into Saturday.

Snippet from NWS Lubbock on just how strong this Arctic High is...

ARCTIC AIRMASS SET TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS
THE LOWER YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WITH THE LOWEST REPORTED
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -45F. ALTHOUGH
NOTHING CLOSE TO THESE READINGS WILL BE FELT LOCALLY...WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION. NEAR RECORD MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE READINGS REMAIN PROGGED
TO USHER IN THIS AIRMASS...WITH VALUES AT LUBBOCK RANGING FROM
1047-1051 MB (RECORD IS 1052.8 MB SET BACK ON JANUARY 10 1962). THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BE THE COLDER AIR AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS


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srainhoutx
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The 12Z GFS is really going to be a close call across much of Central and SE Texas into SW Louisiana. Anytime I see temperatures hovering near 32-33 degrees at 2 meters and dew points probably in the upper 20's with precipitation moving in, it tends to raise an eyebrow.
01062015 12Z GFS 96 gfs_T2m_us_17.png
01062015 12Z GFS f96.gif
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In the Christmas Eve 2004 snow storm it dropped from 35F to 28F here on the coast when precip started due to evaporative cooling (wet bulbing). The dewpoint can make a huge difference when you are in the low-mid 30s but also depends on how heavy precip is.
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The 12Z Parallel as well as the old GFS are a touch colder at 2 meters and both suggest p-type issues may be worth monitoring. Also, the 12Z NAM came in a bit stronger with the secondary front on Friday with a 1056mb High dropping SE from Canada into the Plains.
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ronyan wrote:In the Christmas Eve 2004 snow storm it dropped from 35F to 28F here on the coast when precip started due to evaporative cooling (wet bulbing). The dewpoint can make a huge difference when you are in the low-mid 30s but also depends on how heavy precip is.
Believe that air mass was deeper in nature.
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Heat Miser wrote:
ronyan wrote:In the Christmas Eve 2004 snow storm it dropped from 35F to 28F here on the coast when precip started due to evaporative cooling (wet bulbing). The dewpoint can make a huge difference when you are in the low-mid 30s but also depends on how heavy precip is.
Believe that air mass was deeper in nature.
It was deeper cold than what the models are forecasting at this time for this weekend. This looks more likely to be a freezing rain event if anything here.
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ronyan wrote:It was deeper cold than what the models are forecasting at this time for this weekend. This looks more likely to be a freezing rain event if anything here.
I don't mind frozen precip, just hope it waits until Saturday morning. Seeing an ice pellet or two would make my weekend. Freezing drizzle or rain, no good.
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This will be an interesting upcoming week. Stay tuned to your media outlets, the NWS or here. Things can and will change, as they always do. :)
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we shall see, models tend to struggle with this type of set up
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rec'd an email from ALERT HOUSTON, convenient, if you want to sign up

http://www.houstonemergency.org/go/doc/2263/2442578/


AlertHouston | Freezing Temperatures Expected Wednesday Night

DATE: January 6, 2015 12:20:55 PM CST

Protect the 4 PsThe National Weather Service expects below-freezing temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Cold weather can pose a danger to the health and safety of Houston residents, and proper care should be taken to reduce exposure to these conditions.

When cold weather occurs, Houstonians should remember to protect People, Pets, Pipes, and Plants.

People

Dress in warm clothing, wear gloves, coats and layers when you're outside.
Never leave children or the elderly in vehicles during cold weather, as they can act as refrigerators and expose anyone inside to sub-freezing temperatures.
Never use a generator, grill, camp-stove or any gasoline, propane, natural gas or charcoal-burning device to heat your home (or any enclosed area). These devices can generate carbon monoxide, which can't be seen or smelled, but is deadly. Download the Houston Fire Department Fire Prevention & Life Safety Guidebook for more safety tips.

Pets

Protect your pets by ensuring that they have a warm, safe place to sleep. The best place for a pet is to sleep in a heated environment.
Do not shave your dog down to the skin in winter, as a longer coat will provide more warmth.
Never leave your animal in a car during cold weather. Cars can act as refrigerators in the winter, holding in the cold and causing animals to freeze to death.
Capturing animals during extreme weather conditions is against City ordinance.

For more cold-weather tips for pets, visit the page in the following link from the ASPCA: http://www.aspca.org/pet-care/pet-care- ... -tips.aspx

Pipes

During cold weather, particularly when temperatures reach the mid to low 20s, pipes may freeze, causing water leaks and damage to your home. Protect your home by opening the cabinets under kitchen and bathroom sinks to allow air from your home's heater to warm the pipes under the sink.
Contrary to popular belief - do not let sinks or faucets run to prevent them from freezing, this can impact the water pressure across the system, including that used by fire hydrants.
Insulate outdoor faucets and pipes with insulation or newspaper, and be sure to disconnect and drain hoses from outdoor spigots.
Remember to protect and/or drain your sprinkler systems and garden hoses by shutting them off.

Plants

Protect plants from freezing by covering them with plant-cover fabric, or a light blanket with plastic sheeting on top of it.
Be sure to group potted plants together, and near the edge of a building. Remember that soil in containers can get just as cold as the air temperature, and cause the roots to freeze, even if the above-surface leaves survive.

For more information on what you can do to protect you and your family from the dangers of cold weather, visit http://www.houstontx.gov/emergency .

For up-to-date weather information, visit the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston forecast office website at http://www.weather.gov/houston .
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Both the 12Z Canadian and the Euro trended faster with an upper air disturbance tracking across Mexico into S Central Texas Thursday night into Friday morning. This is before the upper low moves inland over the Baja and begins to shear out. The Euro is very close to suggesting some p-type issues across Central and SE Texas into SW Louisiana before the Coastal trough/wave gets going Friday night into Saturday.
01062015 12Z Euro f72.gif
01062015 12Z Euro f96.gif
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Wind Chill Advisories hoisted for Amarillo and the OK/TX Panhandle tomorrow morning beginning at 3:00AM for wind chill indices from -15F to -5F .
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srainhoutx
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The Metroplex has just issued this graphic for the Dallas/Ft Worth area...
01062015 FWD image_full5.gif
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We are currently enjoying a sensible temperature of 69F (our high so far today has been 71F!!!!!).

Sigh.....to bad this winter day will not last.
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
303 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2015

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

.AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ARE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM SOMERVILLE TO NEW WAVERLY TO LIVINGSTON. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE 25 DEGREES BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195-196-198-070515-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HZ.A.0001.150108T0600Z-150108T1400Z/
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-
WALKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLDSPRING...
COLLEGE STATION...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...GROVETON...HUNTSVILLE...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...
ONALASKA...SHEPHERD...TRINITY
303 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2015

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HARD FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* EVENT...HARD FREEZE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW 24 DEGREES.

* TIMING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 9 AM CST THURSDAY.

* IMPACT...POTENTIAL FOR EXPOSED PIPES TO FREEZE AND SENSITIVE
VEGETATION TO BE DAMAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-062330-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
321 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2015

...WINTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK...

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING VERY COLD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY LATE
THURSDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

SOME OF THIS COULD FALL IN THE FORM OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OCCUR. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON FRIDAY...WHEN LIFT
WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE RED RIVER...A
MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...A
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND
PREDOMINATELY COLD RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. AT
THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR WIDESPREAD TRAVEL PROBLEMS....WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF
SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR A HEAVIER BAND OF SLEET/SNOW TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS AND LOCALIZED TRAVEL IMPACTS. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE /OR EVEN IF/ THIS WILL
OCCUR...BUT MORE WILL BE REVEALED AS NEWER DATA ARRIVES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEGIN SHEDDING SOME
LIGHT ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE EVENT.

LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION AND MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT WARMER AIR MOVING IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SWITCH PRECIPITATION TYPE BACK OVER TO COLD
RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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Andrew
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12z euro remains rather conservative with temperatures closer to the Houston Metro area. Does a good job showing the urban heat island influence. It keeps lows Thursday morning closer to the 30-32 range vs the upper 20s mainly due to the increase in cloud coverage and wind speed. Still impressive though to see such a strong pressure system moving through the central plains. As for this weekend, the second reinforcing cold front looks to keep things miserable with highs in the upper 30s and lows in the middle 30s. Keep an eye on p-types farther North and East where surface ridging is more dominate.
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We're sitting here looking at these models wondering just how dramatic of a change it'll be for p-type if the models aren't comprehending the intensity and endurance of the cold, before precip begins... One to watch Friday and Saturday for sure... Ice pellets at worst Friday... freezing rain/sleet Saturday north? We're thinking the Lufkin area may be closest to Houston along a major highway (59) impacted Friday... See ya at 4p on KHOU 11.
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18Z GFS is 'sniffing' some freezing rain and possibly some sleet very close to Metro Houston...
01062015 18Z GFS 90 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png
01062015 18Z GFS 96 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png
01062015 18Z GFS 102 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png
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Yep 18z gfs shows freezeing rain in North Harris County now...
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