January-Foggy Mornings/Cool & Cloudy To The Month

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BlueJay
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The topic was inspired by one of srain's recent posts.

:D
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srainhoutx
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The afternoon Updated CPC Day 11+ Analogs and Prognostic Discussion as we begin 2015...
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8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 31, 2014 - JAN 06, 2015

THE 0Z/6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FEATURE A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NORTH TO ALASKA, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS, AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA. SPREAD AMONG THE 0Z/6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS MODERATE TO
LARGE WITH THE POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE (TROUGH) OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC (WEST-CENTRAL CONUS).

TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT LOWER PROBABILITIES,
COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, REFLECT THE LARGER SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND MIDWEST.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE DUE TO
ANOMALOUS COLD EARLY IN WEEK-2, WHILE A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST.

A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL EARLY IN WEEK-2 AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHEAST FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALONG THE WEST COAST DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. ALTHOUGH BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, THE POTENTIAL
THAT UPSLOPE FLOW RETURNS LATER IN WEEK-2 LIMITS THE PROBABILITY.

THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALASKA. TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A
RIDGE STRENGTHENING ACROSS ALASKA WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS LATER IN WEEK-2.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, AND 60% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 0Z/6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH

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12232014 CPC Day 11+ Analogs 814analog_off.gif
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srainhoutx
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I see nothing that looks warm across our Region into the first 10 Days of January. Brrr...
12252014 12Z GFS 360 gfs_T2ma_namer_47.png
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z parallel GFS is 'sniffing' yet another big 1060mb+ Arctic High heading S from the Canadian Prairies in the extended range.
12262014 12Z P GFS gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht.gif
12262014 12Z P GFS gfs_namer_360_10m_wnd_precip.gif
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srainhoutx
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The Climate Prediction Center in their update yesterday afternoon continue to advertise a pattern conducive of positive tilted upper trough from NE Canada dropping SW into NW Mexico, the Desert SW, the Southern and Central Rockies into the Plains. Such a pattern if it verifies would mean additional shots of Arctic air dropping S from the Canadian Prairies into the Great Basin, Inter Mountain West and the Plains as we near the mid January timeframe.
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Paul Robison

srainhoutx wrote:The Climate Prediction Center in their update yesterday afternoon continue to advertise a pattern conducive of positive tilted upper trough from NE Canada dropping SW into NW Mexico, the Desert SW, the Southern and Central Rockies into the Plains. Such a pattern if it verifies would mean additional shots of Arctic air dropping S from the Canadian Prairies into the Great Basin, Inter Mountain West and the Plains as we near the mid January timeframe.
12262014 CPC Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_off.gif
12262014 CPC Day 8+ Analogs Temps 610analog_temp.gif
12262014 CPC Day 11+ Analogs 814analog_off.gif
12262014 CPC Day 11+ Analogs Temps 814analog_temp.gif

Do you know of any big ice storms are in our future, srainhoutex?
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Katdaddy
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Not in the near future Paul. While it will turn cold, the depth will be shallow leading to a cold rain. After New Years the potential for additional Arctic air could lead to a Winter precip threat but that is a "wait and see".
Paul Robison

Katdaddy wrote:Not in the near future Paul. While it will turn cold, the depth will be shallow leading to a cold rain. After New Years the potential for additional Arctic air could lead to a Winter precip threat but that is a "wait and see".

Why did I ask? Here's why:

From Srainhoutex:

The Medium Range guidance continues to advertise a very strong Arctic air mass dropping S from the Canadian Prairies into much of the West and Plains. An anomalous 1060mb+ Arctic High with its origin from Northern Siberia continues to settled S across the North Pole and will drop into the Inter Mountain West and Central Plains early tomorrow and push further S spreading a very dense and shallow Arctic air mass deep into the Lower Colorado River Valley as well as the lee side of the Rockies into the Southern Plains into the NW Gulf Coast. This Arctic High is near or slightly below 3 standard deviations below normal for this time of year. The pattern coincides with a +PDO/-EPO Regime.

A very cold positive tilted upper trough will extend from Southern California/Southern Arizona where a cold core 5H low will wrap up into a closed core upper low after the Arctic air arrives into Brownsville and Houston on the 30th into early New Year’s Eve. As the cold core 5H low and trough begin to meander E, embedded short waves will ride NE from the Eastern Pacific setting the stage for warm air to overrun the shallow dense very cold air at the surface. This sort of pattern is a typical Winter Storm setup for extended periods of light freezing drizzle/freezing rain very far S along and N of the I-10 Corridor of Texas and heavy higher elevation snow across the Southern Rockies. This is a classic case of the operational numerical guidance under estimating the dense, shallow very cold air at the surface. We are witnessing all sort of issues from the current storm and much weaker forecasted cold air where sleet and freezing rain is falling this morning where nothing but a cold rain was forecast. The 700mb flow is expected to be easterly creating cold air damming and upslope snow across the Front Range of the Central and Southern Rockies that may extend into Kansas, Western Oklahoma, West Texas, and the Panhandle.

Depending of the eventual evolution of the close core upper low as it track E later next week, the potential is present for a major Ice Storm across the Southern half of Texas extending NE into the Tennessee Valley and possibly the Mid Atlantic. The wild card will be for any potential Coastal low/trough development near Brownsville New Year’s Day and moving NE. It will be interesting to see exactly how this potential Winter Storm develops as we end 2014 and ring in the New Year.

Interesting? You bet.
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srainhoutx
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The GFS continues to indicate at least two more Arctic AIr intrusions into Our Region. The second in a series of strong Arctic fronts arrives on January 6th and a third Arctic intrusion is poised to drop S from the Canadian Prairies around the January 14th time frame.
12292014 06Z GFS 192 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_32.png
12292014 06Z GFS 192 gfs_T2ma_namer_33.png
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Paul Robison

srainhoutx wrote:The GFS continues to indicate at least two more Arctic AIr intrusions into Our Region. The second in a series of strong Arctic fronts arrives on January 6th and a third Arctic intrusion is poised to drop S from the Canadian Prairies around the January 14th time frame.
12292014 06Z GFS 192 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_32.png
12292014 06Z GFS 192 gfs_T2ma_namer_33.png
Big ice storm on the way?
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srainhoutx
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Only 48 more GFS runs to go before we know what the sensible weather may be a week from tomorrow Paul... ;)
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I don't know about y'all but the weather we will be experiencing the rest of the week will be ugly and depressing. Dreary skies, rainy and cold and not cold enough for wintry weather. Just a big sloppy stay inside kind of crud.

Next time we hear that an arctic airmass is coming, remember, they are VERY shallow airmasses and are pretty much useless in giving us winter fun.

So when is the next one? :)
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*ugh* I miss summer.
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kayci wrote:*ugh* I miss summer.

Cant get here soon enough.
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srainhoutx
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redneckweather wrote:I don't know about y'all but the weather we will be experiencing the rest of the week will be ugly and depressing. Dreary skies, rainy and cold and not cold enough for wintry weather. Just a big sloppy stay inside kind of crud.

Next time we hear that an arctic airmass is coming, remember, they are VERY shallow airmasses and are pretty much useless in giving us winter fun.

So when is the next one? :)
Around the 11th to 13th if the GFS is correct...
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12312014 12Z GFS 264 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png
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Where is the sunshine :( Any idea about Marathon weekend? Jan 18th
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Happy New Years to all the forum members.I have a new years resolution that i'm gonna keep.I will not believe anything the models indicate outside of three days. :D
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Happy 2015 Everyone! The next item in the weather world is a Coastal wave/trough expected to develop tomorrow and head NE along the Texas Coastal Waters. A warm front should begin to retreat N mainly across Southern and SE Louisiana into Mississippi bringing a potential for some stronger storms mainly along the Coast and inland to about I-10. The cold upper trough with its closed cold core low is in the process of elongating and splitting as a weaker 500mb wave ejects NE over Colorado into the Plains, a second piece of upper air energy is dropping S along the California Coast. This secondary upper air feature may track a bit further S into Northern New Mexico before beginning to move across Southern New Mexico and the Panhandle. A strong front should arrive late Saturday night into early Sunday morning and hopefully sweep out all the moisture. Monday morning could be very chilly across most of Texas and maybe...just maybe...we can get some peaks of sunshine. That maybe wishful thinking with our Region under the influence of a noisy sub tropical jet and a weak El Nino pattern. We will see.

Image
01012015 SPC Day 2 day2otlk_0700.gif
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CST THU JAN 01 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST TX EAST TO SRN
MS/LA...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT A BROAD SWATH FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS TO ALABAMA. A FEW OF THESE MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS FROM
EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SRN-BRANCH TROUGH/CLOSED UPPER LOW
INITIALLY NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NE AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG /140 KTS AT 250 MB/ SPEED MAX DIVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DIFFERENCES PERSIST
REGARDING THE LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE 00Z-12Z TIME FRAME
SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER/STRONGER AND MAINTAINS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW THROUGH 03/12Z WHILE THE 00Z NAM IS FASTER AND WITH
AN OPEN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION REMAINS IN BETWEEN THESE
SCENARIOS.

AN EAST-WEST SFC FRONT FROM NEAR THE LA COAST EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
FL FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN LA/MS BY 12Z SAT. A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN
GULF WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE LA/TX BORDER BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO THE WRN GULF. AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES IN
THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
NWD MOVEMENT OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT AND DEGREE OF SFC-BASED
DESTABILIZATION IN THE 00Z-12Z SAT TIME FRAME.

...WRN/CENTRAL GULF REGION AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION NORTH OF THE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
RESULTANT MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW TSTMS
DURING THE DAY FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT
OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW GIVEN MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR GENERALLY BELOW 30 KTS.

PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA/MS AND THE SFC LOW MOVES
INLAND ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE
WRN GULF. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ALLOW LOWER 60S
SFC DEW POINTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD IN CONCERT WITH THE WARM FRONT.
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF WARM FRONTAL MOVEMENT MAY BE LIMITED BY
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY OF BETWEEN 750 AND 1000 J/KG WILL EXIST ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS OF LA/MS BY 12Z SAT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH ANY WARM SECTOR STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
ADDITIONALLY...TSTMS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE ALONG THE EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WITH A
RISK OF STRONG WINDS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE EXTENT OF
TSTM DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO 12Z SAT AS THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS
REMAIN NORTH/WEST OF THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THE GREATER SVR
THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST INTO THE DAY 3 TIME FRAME...AND THUS WILL
MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL MARGINAL RISK WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

..BUNTING.. 01/01/2015
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Paul Robison

A dangerous Friday evening/Saturday morning for Houstonians?

HGX says:

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER ARIZONA WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL THEN TRY TO MERGE WITH THE
SUB- TROPICAL JET BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE JET WILL END UP
TAKING A SPLIT STRUCTURE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD PUT
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN A RRQ AND A LFQ (BOTH AREAS SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL LIFT). AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS IS SHOWING PVA CROSSING
OVERHEAD AT 500 MB AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH (SOUTHEAST TEXAS
BEING ON THE WEST SIDE). THE EURO SHOWS THE SAME SPLIT BUT A TAD
FURTHER NORTH. THE EURO ALSO DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH PVA CROSSING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE GFS DOES. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO FORECASTED
BY THE NAM AND GFS TO STAY AROUND 1.60" (+2 SD COMPARED TO
NORMAL). WIDESPREAD LIFT... PLENTY OF MOISTURE... AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY ALL ADD UP TO EQUAL RAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND PUSH
AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM A PACIFIC
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND TEMPORARY CLEARING WILL COMMENCE.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND DRAG A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING. BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOW A ~1045 MB HIGH MOVING INTO
KANSAS MONDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED MONDAY LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN
DUE TO AMPLIFICATION OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES.

No drama or trolling intended, but, what is HGX talking about?
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Ptarmigan
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Polar vortex could be a factor later this month.

Polar Vortex: What Is It and Why Is It Important?
http://firsthandweather.com/516/polar-vortex-important/
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