unome wrote:thank you both, gentlemen - very helpful info !
Is this helpful, too?
SEVERE STORMS AND THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN ONE TORNADIC STORM TO
PUSH THROUGH DENTON TX. SFC ANALYSIS OVER SE TX HAS TYPICAL WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS WITH GUSTY SE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER C PLAINS WITH ELONGATED
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING BACK INTO THE S ROCKIES AS EXPECTED
YESTERDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS JET STREAK COMING OUT OF
MEXICO WHICH LATEST RAP ANALYSES HAVE OVER S TX AND JUST STARTING
TO REACH SE TX. JET STREAK SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 03Z
TONIGHT SO THINK ANY CAPPING MAY ERODED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
LATEST HRRR RUNS HAS CONVECTION NOW OVER C TX FORMING A SQUALL
LINE AND PUSHING INTO THE BRAZOS VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 3AM.
THIS EVOLUTION INTO SOME BOWING SEGMENTS SUPPORTS SPC
ENHANCED/SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR TONIGHT. GIVEN
SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FOR TONIGHT...THINK THIS KIND OF
CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RECOVERY IN THE AIRMASS
FOR IT TO DESTABILIZE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEMS TO WEAKEN BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS LOOK
MUCH LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
PUSH INTO N TX WHICH MAY SLACKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA. FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TROUBLE PART OF THE
FORECAST IS THAT MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP
MONDAY DESPITE A MUCH WEAKER CAP AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
PARAMETERS. NOT ONLY THAT PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND
1.8 INCHES AND THEN OVERNIGHT AT 06Z TUE GFS SHOWS 2 INCH PRECIP
WATER VALUES. THIS IS JUST AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO HIT HILL COUNTRY AND S TX TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN WITH QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP WHILE PRECIP TOTALS FOR
SE TX REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN THE SITUATION. ONE OF THE FEW
MODELS THAT DOES PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA IS
THE 12Z WRF-ARW WHICH BRINGS A SQUALL LINE INTO THE AREA FROM S TX
CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE. OVERALL
KEPT POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT PINNING DOWN THE DETAILS IS STILL A
CHALLENGE. WPC SEEMS TO AGREE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS MOST
OF THE AREA MON/TUE IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
LOOKING AT 3HR FFG VALUES...NEED A GOOD 4-5 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 3
HR PERIOD TO GET FLASH FLOODING. CAN HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH
AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH FIRST COUPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP. THIS WILL
HELP DETERMINE THE NEED FOR A WATCH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST.
BEYOND TUE IT LOOKS LIKE LATE WED/THUR MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AGAIN THE FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCE
GOING THROUGH THUR AND THEN TAPER OFF FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE SET UP FOR THURSDAY IS VERY SIMILAR WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BIG DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF SEEMS TO
HAVE THIS WAVE COMING ACROSS WED AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS HAVING TWO
WEAK WAVES...ONE WED AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER BY 12Z THUR. GOING INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER TX AND
SHOULD SUPPORT LOWER POPS AND A DRY FORECAST. THIS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S.
