May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region

[Cromagnum]

Central and North Texas are going to get it today.

Houston area might get a glancing blow where we don't really need it on the north side.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY OF TX EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN TX/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251513Z - 251715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX.
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH TIME ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO E AND NE OF THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION...A BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN THIS
MORNING...AND IS MOVING EWD/ENEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN TX. EARLY
HEATING ACROSS SRN OK AND N TX E OF THE CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION AND N OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEPARATE/EDWARDS PLATEAU CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALLOWED THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- AIDED BY VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION PER MORNING
SRN PLAINS RAOBS.

ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
PROGRESSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ALREADY-ORGANIZED MCS...WITH A
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY
ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS THE MD AREA.

LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTING ENEWD INTO
CENTRAL TX...AND THIS STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WITH TIME WILL
FURTHER AID IN INCREASING THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST/SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM
WILL ALSO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS -- BOTH WITHIN THE
LINE AND WITH ANY CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND. THUS -- SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THESE STORMS.

AS THE APEX OF THE BOW APPROACHES THE ERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WW
OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WW -- LIKELY A TORNADO WATCH -- WILL BE
REQUIRED...AND WILL COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX AND INTO SRN
OK.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015


ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...
MAF...

[texoz]

Sadly, it's now confirmed that 12 people are missing from the Wimberly area, per the Austin American Statesman. And that number could rise even more.

http://www.statesman.com/news/news/loca ... ley/nmNRz/

People all over TX and OK need to be very careful over the next few days.

[srainhoutx]

New Tornado Watch issued for N Central Texas and portions of Oklahoma until 6:00 PM CDT.

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 211
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1050 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   TORNADO WATCH 211 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   
   .    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   CARTER               COMANCHE            COTTON              
   GARVIN               JACKSON             JEFFERSON           
   JOHNSTON             LOVE                MARSHALL            
   MURRAY               PONTOTOC            STEPHENS            
   TILLMAN              

   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ARCHER               BAYLOR              BELL                
   BOSQUE               BROWN               CALLAHAN            
   CLAY                 COLEMAN             COLLIN              
   COMANCHE             CONCHO              COOKE               
   CORYELL              DALLAS              DENTON              
   EASTLAND             ELLIS               ERATH               
   FALLS                FOARD               GRAYSON             
   HAMILTON             HARDEMAN            HASKELL             
   HILL                 HOOD                JACK                
   JOHNSON              JONES               KAUFMAN             
   KIMBLE               KNOX                LAMPASAS            
   LIMESTONE            MASON               MCCULLOCH           
   MCLENNAN             MENARD              MILAM               
   MILLS                MONTAGUE            NAVARRO             
   PALO PINTO           PARKER              ROBERTSON           
   ROCKWALL             RUNNELS             SAN SABA            
   SCHLEICHER           SHACKELFORD         SOMERVELL           
   STEPHENS             SUTTON              TARRANT             
   TAYLOR               THROCKMORTON        TOM GREEN           
   WICHITA              WILBARGER           WISE                
   YOUNG                


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from HGX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1056 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STARTING OFF THE MORNING W/ RELATIVELY DRY IN IN PLACE...BUT BASED
ON UPPER AIR/SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS THAT SHOULD BE CHANGING THIS
AFTN. LLVL JET WILL BE SHIFTING BACK INTO THE REGION AND DRIVE
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS (1.8-2" PW`S) BACK INTO SE TX. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE NOW BEING MET AND ANTICIPATE SOME SCT POPCORN ACTIVITY
TO BEGIN DEVELOPING SHORTLY.

2 AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY & TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND CRP MOVING NE. THIS IS HEADED
TO AN AREA WHERE READINGS SUN IS SHINING AND READINGS ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 80S. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LI`S AROUND -7 TO -9
NORTH IN THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA ALONG W/ WITH CAPES 3-5K J/KG.
THINK WE`LL SEE A PRETTY GOOD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN W/
HEATING, INCREASING DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE.

THE PRIMARY S/W & CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS HEADED TOWARD N CNTL TX.
EXACTLY HOW THIS IMPACTS SE TX REMAINS TO BE SEEN & LIKELY
DEPENDS ON IF AND HOW STABILIZED ATMOS BECOMES W/ EARLY AFTN
CONVECTION. STILL A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THIS PRIMARY S/W CAUSES N PARTS OF SE TX SOME ISSUES HEADED
INTO THE EVNG HOURS WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS GOOD. FF THREAT STILL POSSIBLE BUT ALSO
HIGHLY DEPENDENT AS TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS STUFF MOVES OUT OF
HERE. STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES - BUT HOPING FOR THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE NAM12 WHICH HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL AS OF
LATE. 47

[srainhoutx]

Storms developing down near Corpus Christi will need to be monitored as the day wears on. There is a chance we may see all the convection congeal into a very strong squall line or possibly a derecho like convective system later this afternoon into the evening hours.

[Rip76]

I was just noticing that area near Corpus Christi.

[srainhoutx]

The Storm Predication Center Updated Convective Outlook maintains a Moderate Risk for Severe Storms across portions of N, NE, E Texas and SE Oklahoma. The hail threat has shifted a bit further S into the Hill Country and the primary threats remain large hail and damaging winds and an isolated Tornado or two.

[srainhoutx]

05252015 mcd0762.gif (10.45 KiB) Viewed 3441 times

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 251637Z - 251830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW AREA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD OUT OF WW 210 INTO ONGOING
WATCHES TO THE N. MEANWHILE...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING TO
THE S OF THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS -- ACROSS THE GILLESPIE/KERR/BANDERA
COUNTY VICINITY. WITH A VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER IN PLACE AND SLY SURFACE WINDS BENEATH A SWLY MID-LEVEL JET
SPREADING ACROSS THIS AREA PER WV IMAGERY...RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
-- INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL -- CONTINUES ACROSS THIS
REGION.

..GOSS.. 05/25/2015


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1233 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ROCKY HILL...OR NEAR FREDERICKSBURG...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
STONEWALL AND LBJ STATE PARK AROUND 1250 PM CDT.
WILLOW CITY AROUND 1255 PM CDT.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BLANCO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL GILLESPIE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1251 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HYE...OR 16 MILES EAST OF
FREDERICKSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ROCKY CREEK AROUND 1255 PM CDT.
SANDY AROUND 105 PM CDT.
JOHNSON CITY AROUND 110 PM CDT.
ROUND MOUNTAIN AND CYPRESS MILL AROUND 115 PM CDT.

[srainhoutx]

Emergency Manager reports Tornado on the ground at the LBJ Ranch.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
108 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BURNET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 108 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF LAKE VICTOR...OR 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BUCHANAN DAM...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN BURNET COUNTY.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0127
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 251808Z - 252308Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A PREDOMINANTLY FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS CONTINUES TO MATURE WHILE APPROACHING I-35...WHILE ALSO
BEGINNING TO DISPLAY QUASI-STATIONARY OR BACK BUILDING
CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN DALLAS FORT WORTH AND SAN ANTONIO. THE
MCS IS MOVING THROUGH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
NEARING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AND ALSO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT DRAPED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.

A COMBINATION OF LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AS
WELL AS GLOBAL AND HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FORMING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE MCS CONTINUES TO MATURE AND MOVES EASTWARD. GIVEN EXTREME
CAPES...HOURLY RATES OF 2 INCHES WILL BE EASY TO ACHIEVE...WITH
SLOWER MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF EVEN MORE. THE TWO MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS FOR FLASH FLOODING APPEAR TO BE IN VICINITY OF
THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE MESOLOW NEAR THE
RED RIVER.

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
119 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXZ195>197-251915-
BURLESON TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-
119 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BURLESON...WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWESTERN BRAZOS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 117 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BURTON...OR 7 MILES WEST OF BRENHAM...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.
THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CELLS WITHIN THE ADVISORY PULSING UP AS WELL.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
REMEMBER...THE GROUND IS MOIST AND TREES WILL BE MORE PRONE TO FALL
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTERN BRYAN...CALDWELL...SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...BURTON...LAKE
SOMERVILLE DAM...DEANVILLE...CHRIESMAN...QUARRY AND LYONS.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN OK/CENTRAL AND NRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 211...

VALID 251854Z - 252100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 211 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK CONTINUES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADO/HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WW AREA...AS THE
WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING MCS SHIFTS ENEWD.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED BOW ECHO/MCS
MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL TX ATTM...WITH NRN PORTIONS OF
THE LINE APPROACHING SWRN/S CENTRAL OK. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH AN AXIS OF MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WHICH IS
FUELING INTENSE CONVECTION -- AND IS BEING AIDED BY ENHANCED WSWLY
REAR INFLOW AT BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESO/CONVECTIVE SCALES.

IN ADDITION...MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF SRN
PORTIONS OF THE LINE INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY REGION...WHERE RECENT
TORNADO REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. OVERALL...THE MOIST/UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE KINEMATICS SUGGEST
CONTINUED/RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADO/HAIL POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 05/25/2015


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
159 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BURNET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 159 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAGO VISTA...OR 13 MILES WEST OF CEDAR
PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LIBERTY HILL AROUND 220 PM CDT.
LEANDER AROUND 225 PM CDT.
ROUND ROCK...SUN CITY AND GEORGETOWN DAM AROUND 240 PM CDT.
GEORGETOWN...SERENADA AND WEIR AROUND 245 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
JONESTOWN...BRIARCLIFF...JONAH...SEWARD JUNCTION AND BRUSHY CREEK.

[srainhoutx]

New Mesoscale Discussion suggests SE Texas may see a Watch coming.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 251910Z - 252045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL
PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TORNADO WATCH 210.
AREAS TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 210 ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
CLUSTER ACROSS BURNET COUNTY MOVING INTO TRAVIS/WILLIAMSON COUNTIES
TX...UNDERGOING SEVERAL INTERACTIONS WITH ANCILLARY CELL DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL/TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE INFLUX OF RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LCLS...AND 100-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM
SRH...GIVEN THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE. WEAKER
CONVECTION DEVELOPING VIA LOW-LEVEL WAA ALSO HAS DISPLAYED
INTERMITTENT/BRIEF ROTATION.

TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AS PRIMARY SVR THREAT APPROACHES ERN EDGE
OF TORNADO WATCH 210 FOR A POSSIBLE NEW WW INTO SOUTHEAST TX.
CONSOLIDATION WITH SRN EDGE OF QLCS ACROSS CNTRL TX IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AN INCREASING DMGG
WIND THREAT.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Radar shows rapid development of training excessive rainfall from north of San Antonio to west of Austin ahead of eastward moving line of thunderstorms and cluster of tornadic supercells over SC TX. Strong SE low level flow is pumping copious moisture NW into C TX feeding training supercells and thunderstorm cells. Given saturated grounds and rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour with these storms rapid flash flooding of creeks and rivers will be possible where extended period of training establishes. Current radar trends suggest at least this is possible along and just west of I-35 from NE of San Antonio to Austin to south of Waco.

As experienced Sunday morning the rivers in this area are capable of tremendous rises in a short period of time with excessive rainfall.

Thunderstorm activity at current is focused across:

Llano River
Pedernales River
Blanco River
Middle Colorado River
San Gabriel River
Little River

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
218 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
LLANO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BURNET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 218 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KINGSLAND...MARBLE FALLS...BURNET...LLANO...BERTRAM...BUCHANAN
DAM...GAINESVILLE...GRANITE SHOALS...HORSESHOE BAY...MEADOWLAKES...
HIGHLAND HAVEN...BLUFFTON...VALLEY SPRING...OXFORD...LONE GROVE...
OATMEAL...SHADY GROVE...INKS LAKE STATE PARK...STOLZ AND WATSON.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.