May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region

[GBinGrimes]

Anderson has taken a beating lately with storms.

I love that area. I hope to grab land in the Iola/Anderson/Carlos in the near future.

We love the area too. Better grab some quick. Land prices are ever increasing. Magnolia got so congested I had to move further north. College Station is expanding south. Places that for so long were known as "the country" just aren't the country anymore. You know that all too well in Montgomery.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Austin/San Antonio issues Flash Flood Watch for their entire forecast area...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1048 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

.AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE
LAST WEEK HAS LED TO SATURATED SOILS IN SOME LOCATIONS. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER ALREADY MOIST GROUND... WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN VERY GOOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THE FLOOD THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
1048 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...
BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...
DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...
LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON AND ZAVALA.

* THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* AREAS WITH SATURATED SOILS CAN EXPECT THE HIGHEST RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING AS RAPID RUNOFF WILL POSE A ELEVATED THREAT TO LIFE AND
PROPERTY. EXPECT LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND SECONDARY ROADS TO
ALSO BE AT A HIGHER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

[djjordan]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

TXZ200-210>214-226-227-235>238-121100-
/O.EXA.KHGX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-150512T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-WALLER-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLUMBUS...DAYTON...
EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WINNIE
301 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS EXPANDED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...
JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...WALLER AND WHARTON.

* THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO
1 INCH ACROSS THE AREA BUT THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN PARTS OF HARRIS COUNTY AND COLORADO
COUNTY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR. WITH STORMS
MOVING SLOWLY AND OVER AREAS THAT HAVE HAD RAINFALL...FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE.

* FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OR MORE IN
AN HOUR ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLOODED
ROADS...UNDERPASSES AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. RAPID RISES ON
AREA BAYOUS COULD IMPACT STREETS AND POSSIBLY AFFECT HOMES.
RISES ON AREA RIVERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

39

&&

$$

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for all SE TX counties through Tuesday.

Will address the various river concerns below.

Discussion:
Outflow boundary continues to push SSW this afternoon across SE TX, but generally there has been little additional development with this feature after the excessive rainfall event over our northern sets of counties this morning. An upper level disturbance will move out of MX this afternoon and evening and expect a complex of thunderstorms to develop over SW TX and move generally toward the ENE overnight. Several of the high resolution guidance models keep the bulk of this activity west of SE TX across SC/coastal bend overnight. Not really sure if any of the models are handling the meso scale features very well nor the placements of the forecasted heavy rainfall axis. Thus there is fairly low confidence moving forward over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Point to be made is that this air mass remains very capable of some intense short term rainfall rates that can quickly lead to major flooding problems. This has happened at least 3 times in the last 24 hours…15 inches SW of Fort Worth, 11 inches at Corsicana, TX, and the 6-8 inches over our northern counties this morning. Given the low level boundaries in place, the copious moisture, slow storm motions, and incoming upper level disturbance additional very heavy rainfall seems likely...but the really big question is where and when. Again those two questions are very low confidence answers, but where the excessive rainfall does develop/flooding is likely.

Since there is such low confidence even in the very near term…will not look much past Tuesday…although it still looks wet.

Hydro:
Rivers are responding to the flooding rainfall in the last 12 hours with mainstem rises ongoing now on the Navasota, West Fork of the San Jacinto, Brazos, and Trinity.

Navasota River: Flooding warning is in effect with the river forecast to rise above flood stage at Normangee this Thursday and remain above flood stage into the weekend.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River: SJRA is currently operating flood gates on Lake Conroe with 4260cfs being released compared to no releases at 600am this morning. Excessive rainfall above the lake is resulting in inflow into the lake and required releases. Current RFC forecast is showing a significant rise in the river to near/above flood stage at Porter and to just below flood stage at Humble later this week. These forecast are very low confidence as the routing of flood flows through the river system are initial. Should have better guidance Tuesday morning on the West Fork.

Brazos River: River is already elevated and will begin a secondary rise over the next few days as upstream flood flows from N TX and the Navasota River reach the main stem. Again these are initial forecasts so the confidence is not very high, but at this time no forecast points (Bryan, Hempstead, Richmond, Rosharon) are forecast to reach flood stage.

Trinity River: A significant flood wave has been generated on the upper/middle Trinity basin passing Dallas and moving downstream. 10-15 inches near Corsicana, TX is producing flooding on feeder channels into the middle Trinity basin. Expect the flood wave to reach SE TX above Lake Livingston middle to late week. Rises to above flood stage are possible above Lake Livingston and releases from Lake Livingston may produce downstream flooding on the lower basin.

Additional rainfall over the next 2-3 days will almost certainly alter these forecasts and residents along area rivers should remain alert to forecasts and water conditions and be prepared to act.

[srainhoutx]

An update fro our South and Central Texas neighbors. The Weather Predication Center is issuing Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion shortly discussing the approaching shortwave trough crossing Mexico.

05112015 mcd0078.gif (10.7 KiB) Viewed 7378 times

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0078
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
529 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SW TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 112129Z - 120230Z

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASING THROUGH EVENING
HOURS GIVEN ACTIVATING CONVECTION ALONG SIERRA MADRE...SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND PRIOR EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY
MERGING INTO LARGER COMPLEX.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS...RADAR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN FLANKS OF THE
SIERRA MADRE UNDER GOOD MST CONVERGENCE DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING
ALLOWING FOR SFC PRESSURE FALLS AND ISALLOBARIC WIND FLOW FOR
CONTINUED MST FLUX INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...GULF BREEZE HAS
PRESSED WESTWARD INTO VERY UNSTABLE AND MST ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS
OLDER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MAVERICK TO MATAGORDA COUNTIES
DROPPING SOUTH AS WELL. WITH SB CAPES IN THE 3500-4000 J/KG AND
TPWS IN THE 1.6-1.75" RANGE THIS WILL FEED THESE DEVELOPING
CONVECTIVE LINES... UNTIL EVENTUAL FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE
BOUNDARY CONVECTION AND CELLS MOVING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO
SHOULD LEAD TO MERGERS OF THE COMPLEX AND OVERALL LAYER
OVERTURNING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF EWX AND CRP CWAS BY
00-02Z. RATES IN EXCESS OF 2-3"/HR ARE LIKELY WITH INCREASES TO
3-4" WHEN MERGERS OCCUR.

THIS SOLUTION IN LINE WITH THE NAM_CONEST ARW AND NMMB THOUGH
WITHOUT CONVECTION FROM THE GULF BREEZE...LIKELY TO EXACERBATE
CONVECTIVE/VIGOR AS WELL AS FOCUS THE HIGHEST THREAT A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH... MORE IN LINE WITH THE 19Z HRRR

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...

[jasons2k]

.51" here so far...

[Cromagnum]

Swing and a miss, much like last week.

[jasons2k]

Offshore looking rather impressive. I wonder if this will cut us off from the inflow and bigger rains...

[BlueJay]

Our rain gauge shows 0.52" inches of rain so far today.
It surely seems like we got more than that...

[jasons2k]

Our rain gauge shows 0.52" inches of rain so far today.
It surely seems like we got more than that...

It was very hit or miss, especially south of 105. It barely wet the pavement at the office on the waterway. I was actually surprised to see the .52" in the guage when I got home. Just one small red cell moved over my house after lunch - it must have poured while it lasted.

[Texaspirate11]

A spit and a holler by the bay....
But there's always tomorrow.....

[srainhoutx]

Latest HRRR and Texas Tech WRF suggest a slow moving MCS developing ahead of the shortwave crossing Mexico at this hour. Convention continues to organize to our S and W generally moving slowly E in a somewhat stagnate upper flow. After midnight, portions of SE Texas could see some very heavy rainfall extending into and possibly beyond the morning rush hour.

[Andrew]

Currently the cold front looks to be stalled across much of central Texas from around the Del rio area up north into the Texarkana region. Mid-level shortwave is ejecting out of central Texas and a healthy stream of mid to upper level moisture is advecting across the region from the pacific. Current steering pattern suggests that overnight rains will be very slow to eject across the area as plenty of lower level moisture streams in from the gulf, further fueling any development. Expect the MCS over south central Tx to slowly eject as we head into the morning hours but model guidance shows a low confidence solution on where that will happen. With current mesoanlysis indicating highest P-wats off to the south and west, i would trend towards a solution with heaviest rain south and west of the I-10 corridor. This location is closest to the center of the wave axis and should be a point of consistent mid-level lift as we head into tomorrow morning. The HRRR seems to agree with that and so does current radar trends. With that said though, expect a large part of central and southern Texas to see measurable rain through the period as moisture continues to overrun the region. Furthermore, this forecast is a low confidence forecast. I wouldn't be surprised to see some locations with 6-10+ inches of rain from overnight tonight.

[Rip76]

Radar for SE Texas is getting active.

[Lumberjack93]

I have to go offshore on May 19 & 20. I was just wondering how accurate the 10 day forecasts are? I will be 125 miles due South of Galveston, at the BoomVang platform.

Any good weather reports for this area?

Lumberjack93

[djjordan]

On going water rescues underway in South Texas........


FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1151 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

TXC427-120530-
/O.CON.KBRO.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150512T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STARR TX-
1151 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHEASTERN STARR COUNTY...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT FOR
STARR COUNTY...

AT 1147 PM CDT...WATER RESCUES WERE OCCURRING IN SOUTHEASTERN STARR
COUNTY...INCLUDING RIO GRANDE CITY. INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN RESCUED
FROM THEIR HOMES AND VEHICLES. OVER TWO FEET OF WATER IS OVER
HIGHWAY 83 IN SOUTHEASTERN STARR COUNTY. WATER HAS ENTERED HOMES AND
BUSINESSES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. FIVE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

IF YOU ARE TRAPPED BY FLOOD WATERS AND NEED HELP. CALL 9 1 1.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR RIO GRANDE
CITY...GARCIASVILLE...LA CASITA...AND HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN RIO GRANDE
CITY AND THE STARR/HIDALGO COUNTY LINE.!

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... RIO GRANDE
CITY...EL SAUZ...LA ROSITA...SULLIVAN CITY...LA
GRULLA...ESCOBARES...GARCIASVILLE...SANTA CRUZ...NORTH
ESCOBARES...LOS ALVAREZ...SAN ISIDRO...ALTO BONITO...ROMA PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[Rip76]

Latest HRRR and Texas Tech WRF suggest a slow moving MCS developing ahead of the shortwave crossing Mexico at this hour. Convention continues to organize to our S and W generally moving slowly E in a somewhat stagnate upper flow. After midnight, portions of SE Texas could see some very heavy rainfall extending into and possibly beyond the morning rush hour.

This is happening now.

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1148 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HIDALGO COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 AM CDT

* AT 1147 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME AREAS OF HIDALGO COUNTY. FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MCALLEN...EDINBURG...MISSION...PHARR...WESLACO...SAN JUAN...
ALAMO...DONNA...MERCEDES...EDCOUCH...LA VILLA...MISSION FIRE
STATION NUMBER 5...DONNA POLICE DEPARTMENT...LOS EBANOS...PALMVIEW
HIGH SCHOOL...PHARR MEMORIAL LIBRARY...PSJA HIGH SCHOOL...EDCOUCH
VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPARTMENT...MISSION FIRE STATION NUMBER 3 AND
MCALLEN HIGH SCHOOL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

[Rip76]

I don't see this letting up for a while.

[djjordan]

Plenty of soaking/flooding rains ongoing across the state. Looking downstream on radar shows plenty of convective activity continuing to slowly move to the NE. This was the evening update from NWS HGX


UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY
OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS PUSHED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF
OUR COASTAL WATERS. MESSY 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT
DRAPED ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE REGION /ROUGHLY ALONG A
CALDWELL TO GRAPELAND LINE/... WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LEADING TO ELEVATED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM MEXICO... AND AS THIS FEATURE NEARS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ANTICIPATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT ENCOURAGING SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.8
INCHES /1.84 AT LAKE CHARLES AND 2.15 AT CORPUS CHRISTI... VALUES
MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/... HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THAT DEVELOPS.

WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES LAY WHEN THE SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA
WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHICH AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HI-RES GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE MAIN RAIN
THREAT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS IT FARTHER INLAND AFTER THAT TIME AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. ADDITIONALLY... THERE/S STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THE RAIN WILL ACTUALLY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE PATH OF THE DISTURBANCE FROM MEXICO WILL
ALSO AFFECT WHICH AREAS SEE RAIN. FOR NOW... CONTINUING TO
HIGHLIGHT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 45
TONIGHT. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT.

HUFFMAN