New Storm Surge Watches & Warnings To Begin This Season

[srainhoutx]

In cooperation with the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service Forecast Offices and NOAA, we are beginning the process to educate our folks on a new experimental Storm Surge Watch and Warning Product to be introduced the Hurricane Season. The Storm Surge Watch and Warning Product will be issued separately from what we have experienced in past years when storm surge was part of the overall Tropical Watch/Warning/Advisory Products issued. The new Storm Surge Watch and Warning Products will be issued separately. Rising sea levels associated with storm surge is a function of wind speeds, the size of the Tropical Storm or Hurricane, astronomical tide levels and the forward motion of the Tropical System as well as the way the Tropical System will approach the Coastline (from what direction the storm is coming from). The slope of the Coastal Shelf as well as elevation ABOVE THE GROUND are included in the new Super Computers to predict what the rising storm surge will be. We will be involved with the organizations listed above in getting the word out to the public and I encourage you to begin discussing with your family, friends, co workers and particularly those with Special Needs such as our Disabled Community these Storm Surge Watches and Warning Changes prior to the beginning of Hurricane Season 2015. Full implementation of this new Product is expected by Hurricane Season 2017. Also, we will begin to see smaller Cones as forecasting skill has increased or improved. Remember that rising water from Storm Surge kills more people than the wind and you must leave if your home is in areas that are affected by rising Storm Surge before the Tropical System nears the Coast.

Read more here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/experimental/inundation/

04142015 inundation-legend.png (24.9 KiB) Viewed 2719 times

[wxman57]

Note that the inundation maps will NOT represent the surge expected based on the current precise forecast track, intensity and storm size. There is too much uncertainty in all of those factors even 24 hours before landfall to make a precise surge height forecast. What the maps WILL represent is a "reasonable worst-case scenario" for the approaching hurricane. The NHC refers to the inundation map as a "10% exceedance graphic", meaning that there is only a 10% chance that the surge at any given location on the map will be higher than is depicted on the map. Most areas on the map will probably not see as high of a surge as the map depicts, but such a surge is POSSIBLE if the hurricane hits in the right spot.