JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[cisa]

Forecasters expect this disturbance to remain relatively weak. It should be a far cry from a powerful, destructive hurricane. I stress that, though unlikely to be come an organized system, it's still a possibility (I would treat as such). Weather forecasting is, after all, not for exact science fans.


Oh, stalling? Cisa, so far as I know, nobody's talking about it stalling.

Uh, how am I doing, Texas Pirate?

Good news on stalling. I know sometimes when they're week, the sit and rain themselves out which would be bad news. I I appreciate your info. I've been reading this afternoon and it looked like CC to Galveston for now which would bend a lot of rain. Just clarifying.

[Paul Robison]

Check out the latest run of the HWRF. That one's showing Shows 1002.9 and 42 mph winds at landfall. That would make it a much weaker storm than it could be, I suppose. Is everybody seeing what I'm seeing?

[srainhoutx]

As of now, 91L is experiencing both wind shear from the West as well as from the upper trough across the Gulf from Galveston on S to just N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Conditions appear to slowly become a bit more favorable for tropical development as 91L nears the Middle Texas Coast Monday afternoon. At this time the major concern is for increasing tides that are already running above normal and very heavy tropical rainfall. Tropical showers and storms look to increase in areal coverage Monday and further increase Monday night into Tuesday as a possible tropical depression or weak tropical storm approaches the Middle Texas Coast. Long fetch deep tropical moisture will stream N along and E of where the surface low tracks. It does raise an eyebrow when the European model solution suggests 10 to 15 inches of possible rainfall to the East of the center of circulation. Those are very high moisture values for that computer model, so expect Flash Flood Watches to be hoisted tomorrow across portions of Eastern Texas into Louisiana. Stay Tuned and keep weather wise. And it's not a bad idea to let those that may not be so weather savoy know that there is a potential for tropical troubles for our part of the Gulf Coast.

[Paul Robison]

As of now, 91L is experiencing both wind shear from the West as well as from the upper trough across the Gulf from Galveston on S to just N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Conditions appear to slowly become a bit more favorable for tropical development as 91L nears the Middle Texas Coast Monday afternoon. At this time the major concern is for increasing tides that are already running above normal and very heavy tropical rainfall. Tropical showers and storms look to increase in areal coverage Monday and further increase Monday night into Tuesday as a possible tropical depression or weak tropical storm approaches the Middle Texas Coast. Long fetch deep tropical moisture will stream N along and E of where the surface low tracks. It does raise an eyebrow when the European model solution suggests 10 to 15 inches of possible rainfall to the East of the center of circulation. Those are very high moisture values for that computer model, so expect Flash Flood Watches to be hoisted tomorrow across portions of Eastern Texas into Louisiana. Stay Tuned and keep weather wise. And it's not a bad idea to let those that may not be so weather savoy know that there is a potential for tropical troubles for our part of the Gulf Coast.

Am I safer in the Houston metro area than I would be in Galveston?

[srainhoutx]

Evening briefing from Jeff:

***Increasing threat for tropical cyclone formation over the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday into Monday with a track toward the TX coast***

Large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan, southern Gulf of Mexico, and western Caribbean Sea is showing signs of organization late this afternoon. A broad area of lower pressure is accompanying this feature over northern Belize into the Yucatan while an upper level trough is moving inland over the TX coast. The upper level trough will continue slowly westward while the surface feature over the Yucatan will move northwest and over the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday into early Monday.

Track:
91L is located to the southwest of a building ridge of high pressure over the SW Atlantic into the SE US which will result in a steering pattern toward the WNW to NNW over the next 72 hours. Global model guidance is in very good agreement with this track reasoning and is showing a strong clustering of guidance tracks toward the NW of 91L in the direction of the NW Gulf coast.

Intensity:
Conditions will be marginally favorable over the Gulf of Mexico as the tropical feature interacts with the upper level trough. Upper level winds will be somewhat conducive for development and there is a large mass of dry air over the east coast of MX that may become entrained into any circulation. However tropical systems have before formed in less than ideal conditions especially when upper level divergence on the east side of the upper trough help vent the surface low…this appears to be what models are keying on for development and this can already be seen in the satellite data with the expansive cloud shield arcing out toward the east suggesting decent upper level outflow on the eastern side of the feature. Model intensity guidance generally is in fair agreement on bringing a 40mph tropical storm across the NW Gulf.

Timing:
Track guidance is in good agreement on the track and timing of the system. Most guidance brings the center of a surface low into the TX coast around 72 hours from 600am (12Z) this morning which would be around 600am (12Z) on Tuesday morning. Some of the global models are slightly slower and have a landfall later in the day on Tuesday.

Impacts:
High PWS air mass is already in place and was clearly showing its capabilities this morning where 5-7 inches of rainfall fell over northern Galveston County including 5.32 inches at the NWS office in League City. PWS are near 2.1 inches and will remain at this level into Monday before the onset of a more significant surge of moisture associated with 91L. Forecast models show moisture levels surging to a very impressive 2.6 inches on Tuesday which is well over +2SD above normal for June and .20 of an inch above TS Allison levels. Such moisture levels if they are to verify would be extremely dangerous and support “incredible” rainfall rates of 4-6 inches per hour.

Rainfall:
Forecast models are very aggressive with rainfall totals and much of this is due to the very high moisture levels. Global models are showing a strong signal for a large band of sustained excessive rainfall along the eastern flank of the low level circulation as it moves inland…currently right across SE TX. Totals within this banding would be significant. For now will go with widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches with isolated totals of 5-10 inches possible. It is possible that totals as high as 20 inches could occur near and to the east of the center of circulation given the extremely high moisture levels that will be in place. Where this happens will be highly dependent on the exact track of the low level center and could be anywhere from the TX coastal bend to SC LA….but will be devastating.

Winds:
Will await NHC wind guidance once advisories are initiated on the system, but based on model guidance a large swath of sustained 40-50mph winds appear likely across the NW Gulf of Mexico. Will have to adjust wind speeds upward over the coastal waters starting early Monday and likely onset tropical storm force gusts by late Monday across the Gulf waters and bays/coastline early Tuesday. Inland winds will increase out of the ENE and E starting Monday and peak on Tuesday in the 25-35mph range with gusts of 40-45mph along the coast. Again, better wind grids will be available from NHC once the system is upgraded.

Tides/Storm Surge:
Tides are already running .5-1.0 ft above normal and will continue to increase with onshore flow in progress. Increasing winds will start wave and tidal run-up as early as Monday morning with tides continuing to increase into Tuesday. Could see tide levels near the critical 4.0 ft water level by late Monday into Tuesday especially on the Gulf facing beaches. This could result in overwash of western Galveston Island and Bolivar and coastal flooding around Seabrook and Kemah. Will need to make adjustments on tides once a good defined center develops. Tides could certainly become an issue and coastal residents should begin to prepare for high coastal water levels.

Forecast Confidence:
Overall confidence in formation of a tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico in the next 72 hours in moderate to high. NHC currently has a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Track: moderate
Intensity: moderate
Rainfall: moderate to high
Winds: low
Tides: moderate

A USAF aircraft is planned to fly this system Sunday afternoon followed by multiple aircraft flights on Monday.

Residents along the TX coast should pay close attention to the weather over the next few days as significant forecast changes are likely.

Starting Sunday a morning and evening update will be issued on this situation and this will likely increase to at least three updates on Monday.

[Paul Robison]

Evening briefing from Jeff:

***Increasing threat for tropical cyclone formation over the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday into Monday with a track toward the TX coast***

Large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan, southern Gulf of Mexico, and western Caribbean Sea is showing signs of organization late this afternoon. A broad area of lower pressure is accompanying this feature over northern Belize into the Yucatan while an upper level trough is moving inland over the TX coast. The upper level trough will continue slowly westward while the surface feature over the Yucatan will move northwest and over the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday into early Monday.

Track:
91L is located to the southwest of a building ridge of high pressure over the SW Atlantic into the SE US which will result in a steering pattern toward the WNW to NNW over the next 72 hours. Global model guidance is in very good agreement with this track reasoning and is showing a strong clustering of guidance tracks toward the NW of 91L in the direction of the NW Gulf coast.

Intensity:
Conditions will be marginally favorable over the Gulf of Mexico as the tropical feature interacts with the upper level trough. Upper level winds will be somewhat conducive for development and there is a large mass of dry air over the east coast of MX that may become entrained into any circulation. However tropical systems have before formed in less than ideal conditions especially when upper level divergence on the east side of the upper trough help vent the surface low…this appears to be what models are keying on for development and this can already be seen in the satellite data with the expansive cloud shield arcing out toward the east suggesting decent upper level outflow on the eastern side of the feature. Model intensity guidance generally is in fair agreement on bringing a 40mph tropical storm across the NW Gulf.

Timing:
Track guidance is in good agreement on the track and timing of the system. Most guidance brings the center of a surface low into the TX coast around 72 hours from 600am (12Z) this morning which would be around 600am (12Z) on Tuesday morning. Some of the global models are slightly slower and have a landfall later in the day on Tuesday.

Impacts:
High PWS air mass is already in place and was clearly showing its capabilities this morning where 5-7 inches of rainfall fell over northern Galveston County including 5.32 inches at the NWS office in League City. PWS are near 2.1 inches and will remain at this level into Monday before the onset of a more significant surge of moisture associated with 91L. Forecast models show moisture levels surging to a very impressive 2.6 inches on Tuesday which is well over +2SD above normal for June and .20 of an inch above TS Allison levels. Such moisture levels if they are to verify would be extremely dangerous and support “incredible” rainfall rates of 4-6 inches per hour.

Rainfall:
Forecast models are very aggressive with rainfall totals and much of this is due to the very high moisture levels. Global models are showing a strong signal for a large band of sustained excessive rainfall along the eastern flank of the low level circulation as it moves inland…currently right across SE TX. Totals within this banding would be significant. For now will go with widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches with isolated totals of 5-10 inches possible. It is possible that totals as high as 20 inches could occur near and to the east of the center of circulation given the extremely high moisture levels that will be in place. Where this happens will be highly dependent on the exact track of the low level center and could be anywhere from the TX coastal bend to SC LA….but will be devastating.

Winds:
Will await NHC wind guidance once advisories are initiated on the system, but based on model guidance a large swath of sustained 40-50mph winds appear likely across the NW Gulf of Mexico. Will have to adjust wind speeds upward over the coastal waters starting early Monday and likely onset tropical storm force gusts by late Monday across the Gulf waters and bays/coastline early Tuesday. Inland winds will increase out of the ENE and E starting Monday and peak on Tuesday in the 25-35mph range with gusts of 40-45mph along the coast. Again, better wind grids will be available from NHC once the system is upgraded.

Tides/Storm Surge:
Tides are already running .5-1.0 ft above normal and will continue to increase with onshore flow in progress. Increasing winds will start wave and tidal run-up as early as Monday morning with tides continuing to increase into Tuesday. Could see tide levels near the critical 4.0 ft water level by late Monday into Tuesday especially on the Gulf facing beaches. This could result in overwash of western Galveston Island and Bolivar and coastal flooding around Seabrook and Kemah. Will need to make adjustments on tides once a good defined center develops. Tides could certainly become an issue and coastal residents should begin to prepare for high coastal water levels.

Forecast Confidence:
Overall confidence in formation of a tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico in the next 72 hours in moderate to high. NHC currently has a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Track: moderate
Intensity: moderate
Rainfall: moderate to high
Winds: low
Tides: moderate

A USAF aircraft is planned to fly this system Sunday afternoon followed by multiple aircraft flights on Monday.

Residents along the TX coast should pay close attention to the weather over the next few days as significant forecast changes are likely.

Starting Sunday a morning and evening update will be issued on this situation and this will likely increase to at least three updates on Monday.

Devastating? What do you mean?

[Texaspirate11]

Evening briefing from Jeff:

***Increasing threat for tropical cyclone formation over the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday into Monday with a track toward the TX coast***

Large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan, southern Gulf of Mexico, and western Caribbean Sea is showing signs of organization late this afternoon. A broad area of lower pressure is accompanying this feature over northern Belize into the Yucatan while an upper level trough is moving inland over the TX coast. The upper level trough will continue slowly westward while the surface feature over the Yucatan will move northwest and over the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday into early Monday.

Track:
91L is located to the southwest of a building ridge of high pressure over the SW Atlantic into the SE US which will result in a steering pattern toward the WNW to NNW over the next 72 hours. Global model guidance is in very good agreement with this track reasoning and is showing a strong clustering of guidance tracks toward the NW of 91L in the direction of the NW Gulf coast.

Intensity:
Conditions will be marginally favorable over the Gulf of Mexico as the tropical feature interacts with the upper level trough. Upper level winds will be somewhat conducive for development and there is a large mass of dry air over the east coast of MX that may become entrained into any circulation. However tropical systems have before formed in less than ideal conditions especially when upper level divergence on the east side of the upper trough help vent the surface low…this appears to be what models are keying on for development and this can already be seen in the satellite data with the expansive cloud shield arcing out toward the east suggesting decent upper level outflow on the eastern side of the feature. Model intensity guidance generally is in fair agreement on bringing a 40mph tropical storm across the NW Gulf.

Timing:
Track guidance is in good agreement on the track and timing of the system. Most guidance brings the center of a surface low into the TX coast around 72 hours from 600am (12Z) this morning which would be around 600am (12Z) on Tuesday morning. Some of the global models are slightly slower and have a landfall later in the day on Tuesday.

Impacts:
High PWS air mass is already in place and was clearly showing its capabilities this morning where 5-7 inches of rainfall fell over northern Galveston County including 5.32 inches at the NWS office in League City. PWS are near 2.1 inches and will remain at this level into Monday before the onset of a more significant surge of moisture associated with 91L. Forecast models show moisture levels surging to a very impressive 2.6 inches on Tuesday which is well over +2SD above normal for June and .20 of an inch above TS Allison levels. Such moisture levels if they are to verify would be extremely dangerous and support “incredible” rainfall rates of 4-6 inches per hour.

Rainfall:
Forecast models are very aggressive with rainfall totals and much of this is due to the very high moisture levels. Global models are showing a strong signal for a large band of sustained excessive rainfall along the eastern flank of the low level circulation as it moves inland…currently right across SE TX. Totals within this banding would be significant. For now will go with widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches with isolated totals of 5-10 inches possible. It is possible that totals as high as 20 inches could occur near and to the east of the center of circulation given the extremely high moisture levels that will be in place. Where this happens will be highly dependent on the exact track of the low level center and could be anywhere from the TX coastal bend to SC LA….but will be devastating.

Winds:
Will await NHC wind guidance once advisories are initiated on the system, but based on model guidance a large swath of sustained 40-50mph winds appear likely across the NW Gulf of Mexico. Will have to adjust wind speeds upward over the coastal waters starting early Monday and likely onset tropical storm force gusts by late Monday across the Gulf waters and bays/coastline early Tuesday. Inland winds will increase out of the ENE and E starting Monday and peak on Tuesday in the 25-35mph range with gusts of 40-45mph along the coast. Again, better wind grids will be available from NHC once the system is upgraded.

Tides/Storm Surge:
Tides are already running .5-1.0 ft above normal and will continue to increase with onshore flow in progress. Increasing winds will start wave and tidal run-up as early as Monday morning with tides continuing to increase into Tuesday. Could see tide levels near the critical 4.0 ft water level by late Monday into Tuesday especially on the Gulf facing beaches. This could result in overwash of western Galveston Island and Bolivar and coastal flooding around Seabrook and Kemah. Will need to make adjustments on tides once a good defined center develops. Tides could certainly become an issue and coastal residents should begin to prepare for high coastal water levels.

Forecast Confidence:
Overall confidence in formation of a tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico in the next 72 hours in moderate to high. NHC currently has a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Track: moderate
Intensity: moderate
Rainfall: moderate to high
Winds: low
Tides: moderate

A USAF aircraft is planned to fly this system Sunday afternoon followed by multiple aircraft flights on Monday.

Residents along the TX coast should pay close attention to the weather over the next few days as significant forecast changes are likely.

Starting Sunday a morning and evening update will be issued on this situation and this will likely increase to at least three updates on Monday.

Devastating? What do you mean?

Paul, calm down. It's not devastating as in Hurricane Ike or Katrina. It's something to keep a watch on, be prepared and understand that we have copious amounts of rain coming in (without wind)....It is a flooding event for sure. Just keep monitoring the weather, take a deep breath and follow instructions for further information.

[Paul Robison]

Evening briefing from Jeff:

***Increasing threat for tropical cyclone formation over the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday into Monday with a track toward the TX coast***

Large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan, southern Gulf of Mexico, and western Caribbean Sea is showing signs of organization late this afternoon. A broad area of lower pressure is accompanying this feature over northern Belize into the Yucatan while an upper level trough is moving inland over the TX coast. The upper level trough will continue slowly westward while the surface feature over the Yucatan will move northwest and over the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday into early Monday.

Track:
91L is located to the southwest of a building ridge of high pressure over the SW Atlantic into the SE US which will result in a steering pattern toward the WNW to NNW over the next 72 hours. Global model guidance is in very good agreement with this track reasoning and is showing a strong clustering of guidance tracks toward the NW of 91L in the direction of the NW Gulf coast.

Intensity:
Conditions will be marginally favorable over the Gulf of Mexico as the tropical feature interacts with the upper level trough. Upper level winds will be somewhat conducive for development and there is a large mass of dry air over the east coast of MX that may become entrained into any circulation. However tropical systems have before formed in less than ideal conditions especially when upper level divergence on the east side of the upper trough help vent the surface low…this appears to be what models are keying on for development and this can already be seen in the satellite data with the expansive cloud shield arcing out toward the east suggesting decent upper level outflow on the eastern side of the feature. Model intensity guidance generally is in fair agreement on bringing a 40mph tropical storm across the NW Gulf.

Timing:
Track guidance is in good agreement on the track and timing of the system. Most guidance brings the center of a surface low into the TX coast around 72 hours from 600am (12Z) this morning which would be around 600am (12Z) on Tuesday morning. Some of the global models are slightly slower and have a landfall later in the day on Tuesday.

Impacts:
High PWS air mass is already in place and was clearly showing its capabilities this morning where 5-7 inches of rainfall fell over northern Galveston County including 5.32 inches at the NWS office in League City. PWS are near 2.1 inches and will remain at this level into Monday before the onset of a more significant surge of moisture associated with 91L. Forecast models show moisture levels surging to a very impressive 2.6 inches on Tuesday which is well over +2SD above normal for June and .20 of an inch above TS Allison levels. Such moisture levels if they are to verify would be extremely dangerous and support “incredible” rainfall rates of 4-6 inches per hour.

Rainfall:
Forecast models are very aggressive with rainfall totals and much of this is due to the very high moisture levels. Global models are showing a strong signal for a large band of sustained excessive rainfall along the eastern flank of the low level circulation as it moves inland…currently right across SE TX. Totals within this banding would be significant. For now will go with widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches with isolated totals of 5-10 inches possible. It is possible that totals as high as 20 inches could occur near and to the east of the center of circulation given the extremely high moisture levels that will be in place. Where this happens will be highly dependent on the exact track of the low level center and could be anywhere from the TX coastal bend to SC LA….but will be devastating.

Winds:
Will await NHC wind guidance once advisories are initiated on the system, but based on model guidance a large swath of sustained 40-50mph winds appear likely across the NW Gulf of Mexico. Will have to adjust wind speeds upward over the coastal waters starting early Monday and likely onset tropical storm force gusts by late Monday across the Gulf waters and bays/coastline early Tuesday. Inland winds will increase out of the ENE and E starting Monday and peak on Tuesday in the 25-35mph range with gusts of 40-45mph along the coast. Again, better wind grids will be available from NHC once the system is upgraded.

Tides/Storm Surge:
Tides are already running .5-1.0 ft above normal and will continue to increase with onshore flow in progress. Increasing winds will start wave and tidal run-up as early as Monday morning with tides continuing to increase into Tuesday. Could see tide levels near the critical 4.0 ft water level by late Monday into Tuesday especially on the Gulf facing beaches. This could result in overwash of western Galveston Island and Bolivar and coastal flooding around Seabrook and Kemah. Will need to make adjustments on tides once a good defined center develops. Tides could certainly become an issue and coastal residents should begin to prepare for high coastal water levels.

Forecast Confidence:
Overall confidence in formation of a tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico in the next 72 hours in moderate to high. NHC currently has a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Track: moderate
Intensity: moderate
Rainfall: moderate to high
Winds: low
Tides: moderate

A USAF aircraft is planned to fly this system Sunday afternoon followed by multiple aircraft flights on Monday.

Residents along the TX coast should pay close attention to the weather over the next few days as significant forecast changes are likely.

Starting Sunday a morning and evening update will be issued on this situation and this will likely increase to at least three updates on Monday.

Devastating? What do you mean?

Paul, calm down. It's not devastating as in Hurricane Ike or Katrina. It's something to keep a watch on, be prepared and understand that we have copious amounts of rain coming in (without wind)....It is a flooding event for sure. Just keep monitoring the weather, take a deep breath and follow instructions for further information.

Oh, don't worry about me. I agree, this certainly no Katrina.

LOL: If I could be a hurricane, I think I'd be Ike!

[TexasBreeze]

It is going to be a long several nights ahead here.....

[srainhoutx]

Paul, take the night off. I know I am. We will be here to pass along all the factual and accurate information to ALL the folks across our Region. There will be updates almost 24 hours a day from Andrew and other longtime well respected and very knowledgeable weather folks on this Forum for everyone to read and make wise well thought out decisions if need be. Good night gang.

[Paul Robison]

Paul, take the night off. I know I am. We will be here to pass along all the factual and accurate information to ALL the folks across our Region. There will be updates almost 24 hours a day from Andrew and other longtime well respected and very knowledgeable weather folks on this Forum for everyone to read and make wise well thought out decisions if need be. Good night gang.

Good night, srainhoutex. See ya tomorrow.

[Andrew]

00z update indicate that regions closer to the central coast of Texas could be under the gun. Either way a huge amount of precip will fall over the region.

[Baseballdude2915]

Model consensus is tight for the current lack of organization shown by this system. Will be interesting to see how it shifts or perhaps doesn't once the LLC forms after it clears land tomorrow. Tomorrows PM runs will be more telling. Either way, 24 hour board mode starts tomorrow.. gonna be another fun one guys!

[Paul Robison]

I think we have one thing in our favor, everybody. The Gulf Loop Current is in the Gulf almost all the time. It expands in summer, shrinks in winter. Now, the LOOP Current is the source of what we call the Gulf Stream. It streams out of the Gulf past the Florida Straits (hence, the "Florida Current") and then up the East Coast. The Loop Current moves faster mover, and eddies will sometimes break off, being left behind as pockets of warm water in a cooler Gulf. It is these eddies that hurricanes see use for fuel. Right now, if my WX forecaster friend is to be believed, there are no eddies in the Gulf right now. You don't see those until August and they last right on through October; that's why hurricanes in those months tend to be more powerful and destructive. Bill may be a scarecrow of storm, if that's true.

[Andrew]

ECMWF is showing a stalling of the system around the Matagorda bay area with close to 15 inches of rainfall southwest of Harris County. That would be a worrying trend to say the least. The GFS was more progressive with the eventual ejection, with 5-7 inches of precip across the region. GFS was also the farthest south solution around the Corpus area with a northward turn shortly after. Still some fine details to iron out. Once the broad area of low pressure moves offshore, a better understanding of intensity and track will be understood.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. Not too much change over night via the various computer guidance and the thinking regarding the impacts of the area of distributed weather (91L) currently over the Yucatan Peninsula. The upper trough across the Upper Texas Coast continues to generate scattered showers and some thunderstorms moving quickly to the N from Matagorda Bay to Galveston Bay into SW Louisiana. Satellite derived data from GOES sounder as well as surface observation suggest PW's near 2.2+ inches meaning heavy rainfall rates are again possible today, but showers and some embedded thunderstorms are moving quickly up 30 MPH and so far no training of storms have developed. That may change during the morning hours as witnessed yesterday, so where any training does materialize except very heavy rainfall rates of several inches per hour with the potential for localized flooding.

Jeff and the NWS will be covering the tidal flooding concerns later this morning and this afternoon with their updates, so stay tuned for that information.

The 00Z and 06Z track guidance for 91L remains tightly clustered along the Middle Texas Coast which is worrisome regarding the heavy rainfall threat across the Middle/Upper Texas Coast into SW Louisiana and inland to near the Austin, Temple, Bryan/College Station, Metro Houston into East and NE Texas. The morning updated Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the next week suggests upwards of 8 inches of rainfall is possible and that may be a conservative estimate. Some locations near and East of the track of the circulation center could see some 10 to 15 inches of rainfall with isolated higher totals nearing the 20 inch mark where training storms develop. At this time a weak tropical storm is the most likely scenario with gale force winds nearing the Upper Texas and SW Louisiana Coasts Monday continuing throughout the day and possibly extending into Tuesday. Inland winds may approach the 40 MPH range with some higher gusts associated with stronger thunderstorms near and to the right of the low level circulation track. There is a chance for some isolated severe storms and possibly a short lived tornado or two as the surface low moves inland.

Now for the biggest concern. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall across portions of the SE Texas area and may increase this later to a Moderate Risk as additional data becomes available. The NAM and Canadian computer models are on the faster side of guidance moving this tropical system by rather quickly. The European and UKMet are slower and even briefly stall the system before lifting it out to the ENE toward an advancing frontal boundary across N Texas Tuesday into Wednesday. The major fly in the ointment is a weakness between the upper ridge to our East and West remains situated over Texas throughout this coming week into next weekend keeping nocturnal and diurnal showers and thunderstorms chances going all of next week after this tropical mess gets out of our hair. Another concern is from Carlos in the Eastern Pacific expected to spread additional mid/upper level moisture across Mexico into Texas mid week into the late week timeframe. Reconnaissance aircraft is going to investigate 91L this afternoon if it makes into the SW Gulf and then every 6 hours until landfall. Stay Tuned for additional updates and information throughout the day and for as long as we have weather worries across our Region.

The attachment 06142015 06Z 91L_tracks_06z.png is no longer available

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
420 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...INCREASING RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
COULD LEAD TO A DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALREADY OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING
2.50 INCHES DURING A MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS THE
YUCATAN AREA TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS.
EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LINES
UP WILL DEPEND A LOT ON HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION WE SEE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH IT`S SPEED AND TRACK. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP
RIGHT AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE A LOT OF HEAVY RAINS. THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD EASILY AVERAGE 6 TO 8 INCHES WITH SOME AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 10 INCHES WHERE THE BEST TRAINING SETS UP. YESTERDAY ALONE...
PARTS OF GALVESTON COUNTY RECEIVED 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 2.50
INCH MARK OR HIGHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...6 TO 8 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO A DANGEROUS FLOOD
SITUATION. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE GOING TO BE NEEDED. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND THE SMALL AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY...THINK
WE CAN HOLD OFF ON THE WATCH FOR JUST A LITTLE LONGER. 42
&&

.MARINE...
MARINERS NEED TO SERIOUSLY (RE)CONSIDER THEIR SHORT TERM
PLANS/INTERESTS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A
DANGEROUS MARITIME WEATHER PATTERN MAY UNFOLD EARLY THIS WEEK.
APPROACHING HIGH MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...IN TANDEM WITH
HIGHER INSTABILITY FROM AN APPROACHING YUCATAN REGION TROPICAL
LOW/DISTURBANCE OR DEPRESSION...WILL SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY
BECOME STRONG AND ROUGH...RESPECTIVELY...IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE RESULTING TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THIS WESTERN GULF (POSSIBLE TROPICAL) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MODERATE LONG DURATION SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER SWELL AND WIND DRIVEN
WAVES WILL KEEP LOCAL WATER CAUTION AND/OR ADVISORY FLAGS IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT EARLY MONDAY. WATER LEVELS OF AROUND A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES MAY INCREASE BY ANOTHER HALF FOOT OR SO BY EARLY MONDAY. WAVE
RUN-UP...IN TANDEM WITH HIGH TIDE...MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ALONG
GULF FACING BEACHES. 31

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
415 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS ARE THE ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING THAT HAS
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTORM LINE CURRENTLY EXTENTS FROM KERR ARCING BACK
SOUTHWEST INTO MAVERICK COUNTY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS LINE IS
ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST AND HAS A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1-2" ARE OCCURRING OVER UVALDE...ZAVALA
AND MAVERICK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO COMPOUND ANY LOCAL FLOODING
ISSUES. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 5-6AM
WITH OVERALL RAINFALL RATES DECREASING. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF US HWY 281 WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW-LVL JET OF 35-40 KT CONTINUES PER KEWX
VAD WIND PROFILE.

BY 6-9AM...FEEL THE LINE OUT WEST WILL HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BUT
WILL LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO BE A LATER FOCUSING TRIGGER FOR
MORE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO AT THIS TIME...THE SCT ACTIVITY
THAT IS NOW ON GOING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND REGENERATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HEATING TAKES PLACE. WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN...SHALLOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE QUITE NUMEROUS THIS AFTN. ONCE OUTFLOWS BEGIN TO
PROPAGATE LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL THESE COLLISIONS AND THE POSSIBLE
LARGER OUTFLOW FROM THE MAIN LINE COULD AID IN PULSE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE WITH PROGGED 2000 J/KG AND
WEAK SHEAR /20KT 0-6 KM/ BUT SOME WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ALSO AND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. ANOTHER MORE
POTENT ROUND OF TSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN FIRE OVER THE BIG BEND AND WEST
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE MAKES IT INTO VAL VERDE BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MORE LIMITED THAN CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS TIME TOMORROW.

FOR MONDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
FOR EASTERN AREAS AS THE FIRST OUTER BANDS OF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE INFLUENCE THE REGION. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND WITH GREATEST SHOWER FOCUS WEST OF US HWY 83
AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. OVERALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACTS FROM FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES AS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSE TO THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE
FROM 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5-6 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT
A STRONG CYCLONE GIVEN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND OVERALL
SHEAR SET-UP. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION BUT THE
OVERALL HAZARDS WILL BE DISCUSSED GIVEN THE MOST LIKELY POSSIBILITY.
THE OP GFS IS MORE WEST TOWARDS BAFFIN BAY WITH EC TOWARDS MATAGORDA
BAY AND NAM FARTHER WEST TOWARDS HOUSTON. GFS ENSEMBLE TRACKS FAVOR
MORE OF AN EC SOLUTION AND FEEL THIS IS THE BEST CONCENSUS AS IT
TRACKS INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. THIS POSSIBLE TRACK WOULD
FAVOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL LIKELY
FALL EAST OF LAVACA/FAYETTE COUNTIES TOWARDS HOUSTON. HOWEVER, FAR
EAST ZONES WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMING ASHORE NEAR MID-DAY TUESDAY...THIS
WILL BE THE BEGINNING WINDOW FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN PERIODS TO OCCUR.
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TIME FRAME WITH
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT WEATHER FOR EASTERN ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN
COULD SET UP OVER THIS AREA. WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE VALUES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ANY DEVIATION LEFT/WEST COULD RESULT IN MORE
RAINFALL. GLOBAL MODELS DO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL (HIGHER THAN AMOUNTS
MENTIONED ABOVE) AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL JUST EAST OF OUR AREA AND
TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE H5 PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH WEAKNESS CENTERED
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE REGION AND
REDUCE RAIN CHANCE TO ONLY 20-30% DURING THE AFTERNOON.

[unome]

the 8am discussion: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?

just a snippet

based on 0600 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 utc.

...special features...

a 1008 mb low pressure center is in the yucatan peninsula near 20n88w. convective precipitation...numerous strong extends from the southeastern gulf of mexico...through the yucatan channel... into the gulf of honduras and the northwestern corner of honduras. numerous strong convective precipitation that was occurring from southern honduras into western nicaragua... around 14/0345 utc... has weakened and dissipated. gale-force winds developed in the yucatan channel...from 19n to 22n between 85w and 87w. the low pressure center is forecast to move northwestward during the next 48 hours... carrying with it gale-force winds. some development of this system is possible after it moves into the southwestern gulf of mexico later today and across the northwestern corner of the gulf of mexico through tuesday. heavy rains should continue in parts of the yucatan peninsula today. an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure center this afternoon... if it becomes necessary to do so. additional information about this feature is found in the high seas forecast under wmo fznt02 knhc or miahsfat2. the chances of this system developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium.

also a reminder that you can visit the "user control panel" once you've logged in here & set your board preferences http://forums.khou.com/ucp.php - check out all the options on the tabs there, it makes reading and participating a custom experience & can streamline the process in "emergency mode"

[unome]

8 am TWO is out http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtbltn ... sf.at2.txt

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141141
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A sharp trough of surface low pressure across the Yucatan Peninsula,
in combination with an upper-level low over the Gulf of Mexico,
continues to produce showers and thunderstorms over portions of
Guatemala, Belize, the Yucatan, and adjacent waters. Upper-level
winds are expected to become more favorable for some development
over the next day or two as the system moves northwestward into the
western Gulf of Mexico, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
Heavy rains are expected to continue over these areas today, along
with winds to near gale force over portions of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Franklin


also, here's the tropical atlantic high seas forecast http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtbltn ... sf.at2.txt

FZNT02 KNHC 140935
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUN 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUN 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE JUN 16.

.WARNINGS.


CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING
.LOW PRES INLAND NEAR 20N89W 1008 MB MOVING NNW 7 KT. FROM 19N
TO 22N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W SE TO S WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO
14 FT. ELSEWHERE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 83W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SE SWELL. FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 83W
AND 93W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N OF 23N W
OF 94W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS
S OF 23N W OF 85W.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 21N89.5W 1007 MB. FROM 19N TO
23N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W E TO SE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W E TO SE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 22N90W 1007 MB. FROM 22N TO 25N
BETWEEN 86W AND 91W E TO SE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W E TO SE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W
SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 23.5N91.5W 1007 MB. WITHIN 240
NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 300 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 27N95.5W 1007 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT.


CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING

S OF 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W
INCLUDING THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA...NE TO E WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W NE TO E WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN E SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE TO E SWELL...HIGHEST
NEAR 13N77W. ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 79W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN E SWELL...HIGHEST NEAR
12N75W. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 82W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 69W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
IN E SWELL...HIGHEST NW OF COLOMBIA. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N
TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 83W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
IN E SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 17N60W TO 12N48W TO 07N52W TO
10N61W TO 17N60W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 51W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.

.CARIBBEAN 18 HOUR FORECAST S OF 17N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W E TO SE
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 18N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W E TO SE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST S OF 17N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W E TO SE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 18N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W E TO SE WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.