JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month
The 0z models haven't quite started yet. What folks are looking at is guidance from the 18z suite. 0z GFS will start running at about 1030.
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Paul Robison
What's your guess as to what Oz models will say?Scott747 wrote:The 0z models haven't quite started yet. What folks are looking at is guidance from the 18z suite. 0z GFS will start running at about 1030.
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Andrew
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yea around thereRip76 wrote:Andrew, I mentioned this earlier.
"But I also see a spin at about 23.5 & 88."
Is this about where you're talking about?
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First, Thank you Thank you Thank you for this forum. It helps keep me informed.
You see, I live in Canada currently, however my permanent home is in Houston.
I am confused with what is being said. I have seen from no storm, to storm going to Corpus, to storm going to New Orleans, to storm dropping a lot of rain.
I understand that this is a "free" opinion forum, but if we can, when we post stuff that is saying its going somewhere other than what the news is saying can we have information that shows us. So that we have a visual of what your seeing.
Thanks again... have a good week, and be safe
You see, I live in Canada currently, however my permanent home is in Houston.
I am confused with what is being said. I have seen from no storm, to storm going to Corpus, to storm going to New Orleans, to storm dropping a lot of rain.
I understand that this is a "free" opinion forum, but if we can, when we post stuff that is saying its going somewhere other than what the news is saying can we have information that shows us. So that we have a visual of what your seeing.
Thanks again... have a good week, and be safe
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Baseballdude2915
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00z models. At this point its a Texas storm, Corpus to Matagorda most likely.
Tomorrow is the big day as to how the storm organizes, especially since it's entering less shear currently.
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Paul Robison
Well, I don't wish the folks in Corpus any bad luck, but, despite h-town being on the dirty side, I'm glad it's going there instead of coming here.Baseballdude2915 wrote:
00z models. At this point its a Texas storm, Corpus to Matagorda most likely.
Tomorrow is the big day as to how the storm organizes, especially since it's entering less shear currently.
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stormlover
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I wouldn't be so certain it's going to corpus, it's would have to go wnw and this system will be going nw
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Paul Robison
Well, maybe there's some hope, even if it did come here. Read this HGX disco:stormlover wrote:I wouldn't be so certain it's going to corpus, it's would have to go wnw and this system will be going nw
THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES THAT INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD 6 TO 8 INCH TOTALS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES AS OPPOSED TO ALLISON/S 30 TO 35 INCH RAIN
TOTALS. IT PRESENTLY APPEARS THAT A BETTER ANALOG TO THE POTENTIAL RAIN EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE THE RECENT MEMORIAL DAY FLOODING... ONLY ACROSS A LARGER AREA. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNTING HIGHER RAIN TOTALS HOWEVER IS THE LATEST 00Z NAM SHOWING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME RESIDING
OVER THE REGION FOR A GOOD 24 HOURS... WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHER THAN FORECAST RAIN TOTALS.
IMHO the NAM doesn't handle tropical systems very well, or so they say.
No real change from the NHC this overnight. Still looking at 80% probabilities.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Surface observations and satellite data indicate that the broad
area of low pressure over the south-central Gulf of Mexico has
changed little over the past several hours. The system's
circulation is not well-defined, and the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. The low continues to
produce tropical storm force winds well to the east and northeast of
the center. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more
favorable while this system moves northwestward during the next
day or two across the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm could form during that time. A
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later this morning.
Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday. There is also a risk of heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas
Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Surface observations and satellite data indicate that the broad
area of low pressure over the south-central Gulf of Mexico has
changed little over the past several hours. The system's
circulation is not well-defined, and the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. The low continues to
produce tropical storm force winds well to the east and northeast of
the center. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more
favorable while this system moves northwestward during the next
day or two across the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm could form during that time. A
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later this morning.
Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday. There is also a risk of heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas
Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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Andrew
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Latest model trends from the 00z suite overnight do indicate that the middle part of the Texas coast may be closer to the location of landfall. The GFS has been hinting that the weakness in mid to lower level ridging was less defined than previously indicated. The ECMWF has followed track with that idea showing a Corpus Christi landfall with a northern turn shortly after. With all that said, areas around the Matagorda Bay still received close to 17 inches of rain while the metro region sees 3-5 inches. A couple of concerns here though, the LLC is still not well defined and convection is more apparent NW of the low. Furthermore, even if this disturbance can get its act together westerly shear will still be present during landfall. With these two things said I still think most models are underestimating convection to the NE of the low. Confidence in this forecast is still rather low and will remain that way until we can confirm a center later today (hopefully).
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml
the Gulf snippet:
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
306 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
UPDATED GULF OF MEXICO MODEL PREFERENCE
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 06Z TAFB-NWPS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N92.5W
1007 MB MOVING NW AT 12 KT. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DID NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED OR CLOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER AND
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY QUITE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE SCATTEROMETER
DATA DID INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 40 KT AND A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL GULF ZONE GMZ019 AS WELL AS THE
N CENTRAL GMZ013 AND NW GMZ011 ZONES THROUGH 12 UTC TUE AS THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE NW. THE LOW DOES HAVE A HIGH
POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
ALTIMETER DATA MEASURED SEAS UP TO 16-17 FT IN THE AREA OF
STRONGEST WINDS AS WELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH
THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INLAND
EARLY TUE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO EASTERN
TEXAS WHERE LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TUE AS HIGH PRES
RIDGING BECOMES ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES IN THE NE GULF FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE RETURN/SE FLOW FOR
THE BASIN EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE HIGH CENTER
ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF AND 4-6 FT IN
THE SW HALF OF THE GULF. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND NW OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH LEVELS DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DIURNAL TROUGHING FORMS OVER
THE PENINSULA PUSHING OFFSHORE TO THE NW EACH MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
images outdated quickly, too lrg to post, no detail if reduced:
RapidSCAT
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... ATData.php
ASCAT
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... TBData.php
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... ATData.php
the Gulf snippet:
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
306 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
UPDATED GULF OF MEXICO MODEL PREFERENCE
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 06Z TAFB-NWPS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N92.5W
1007 MB MOVING NW AT 12 KT. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DID NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED OR CLOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER AND
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY QUITE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE SCATTEROMETER
DATA DID INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 40 KT AND A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL GULF ZONE GMZ019 AS WELL AS THE
N CENTRAL GMZ013 AND NW GMZ011 ZONES THROUGH 12 UTC TUE AS THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE NW. THE LOW DOES HAVE A HIGH
POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
ALTIMETER DATA MEASURED SEAS UP TO 16-17 FT IN THE AREA OF
STRONGEST WINDS AS WELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH
THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INLAND
EARLY TUE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO EASTERN
TEXAS WHERE LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TUE AS HIGH PRES
RIDGING BECOMES ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES IN THE NE GULF FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE RETURN/SE FLOW FOR
THE BASIN EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE HIGH CENTER
ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF AND 4-6 FT IN
THE SW HALF OF THE GULF. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND NW OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH LEVELS DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DIURNAL TROUGHING FORMS OVER
THE PENINSULA PUSHING OFFSHORE TO THE NW EACH MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
images outdated quickly, too lrg to post, no detail if reduced:
RapidSCAT
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... ATData.php
ASCAT
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... TBData.php
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... ATData.php
when are the next model runs? Looks like media is jumping on band wagon with westward shift and invest 91L didnt organize overnight. Matagorda Bay is bullseye for the 17+ inchesbinstead of houston area.
The next model runs and recon flight will either establish a trend or the models will shift again. The possiblity of 5-6 inches is different the 15-17 inches.
Any new updates this morning?
The next model runs and recon flight will either establish a trend or the models will shift again. The possiblity of 5-6 inches is different the 15-17 inches.
Any new updates this morning?
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Texaspirate11
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ticka1 wrote:when are the next model runs? Looks like media is jumping on band wagon with westward shift and invest 91L didnt organize overnight. Matagorda Bay is bullseye for the 17+ inchesbinstead of houston area.
The next model runs and recon flight will either establish a trend or the models will shift again. The possiblity of 5-6 inches is different the 15-17 inches.
Any new updates this morning?
It has always been a strong possibility of Matagorda Bay Ticka. Even with a landfall there we are still on the dirty side.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
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srainhoutx
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The latest 06Z track guidance has shifted further down the Texas Coast and is clustered near the Corpus Christi area, but the end result is the same regarding the very heavy rainfall threat generally along and W of the I-45 Corridor where the Weather Prediction Center as outlined a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall across the Western portion of SE Texas to near Victoria and the Matagorda Bay area. Rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches are outlined in the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast with a possibility of some 15 inch totals along and East of where the low center tracks. Flash Flood Watches will likely be hoisted from SE Texas into portions of S Central and East Texas this morning. The disturbance has not moved much overnight or strengthened, but the latest satellite imagery suggests convection is increasing N and E of an elongated center. It is also noteworthy that an approaching mid level trough across West Texas into the Southern Plains Is firing off thunderstorms that are slowly advancing E. Further E across the SE United States, an upper ridge is developing suggesting all that tropical moisture will continue to advanced toward the Texas Coast today with increasing heavy tropical showers are thunderstorms as the disturbance generally moves NW around the Western Periphery of the Eastern Ridge and a weakness over Central and Eastern Texas. Gale Force winds are building N and E of the center of a broad surface low pressure area along with increasing seas and rising tide levels along the Middle and Upper Texas and SW Louisiana Coastal areas. Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft will investigate this morning and 91L could become a tropical storm at anytime. Coastal Tropical Storm Watches may be needed later today along portions of the Texas and Louisiana Coast.
Intensify guidance still support a weak tropical storm developing, but the biggest concern is heavy flooding rainfall. This remains a serious situation and pay close attention to the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center and the local media outlets for further information as it begins to be released throughout the day into Tuesday. We will have all the latest official information and analysis here on our KHOU Weather Forum as well as our social media feeds throughout this weather event.
Intensify guidance still support a weak tropical storm developing, but the biggest concern is heavy flooding rainfall. This remains a serious situation and pay close attention to the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center and the local media outlets for further information as it begins to be released throughout the day into Tuesday. We will have all the latest official information and analysis here on our KHOU Weather Forum as well as our social media feeds throughout this weather event.
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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
524 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
524 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
...INCREASING RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
COULD LEAD TO A DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXPECT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST AND THEN OFF TO THE NORTH. IF
EVERYTHING LINES UP CORRECTLY...RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA COULD APPROACH A 5 TO 7 INCH RANGE WITH SOME AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 10 INCHES WHERE ANY TYPE OF TRAINING SETS UP. RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS HIGH WILL LEAD TO FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED.
BEGINNING TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE...THERE COULD BE AN INCREASING
RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS AND TORNADOES. ALONG THE BEACHES...EXPECT ELEVATED
TIDE LEVELS AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.
RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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srainhoutx
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
503 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-
SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...LUMBERTON...
SILSBEE...BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...
JASPER...KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
503 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...SOUTHERN
JASPER AND SOUTHERN NEWTON. IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HARDIN...
JEFFERSON...ORANGE AND TYLER.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
* AN AREAL AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
* AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT TIME COULD
RECEIVE FLOOD WATER TO DEPTHS THAT WOULD IMPACT PROPERTY AND
PEOPLE IN THOSE AREAS. AREA CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE
ALSO LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE RISES.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
503 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-
SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...LUMBERTON...
SILSBEE...BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...
JASPER...KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
503 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...SOUTHERN
JASPER AND SOUTHERN NEWTON. IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HARDIN...
JEFFERSON...ORANGE AND TYLER.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
* AN AREAL AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
* AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT TIME COULD
RECEIVE FLOOD WATER TO DEPTHS THAT WOULD IMPACT PROPERTY AND
PEOPLE IN THOSE AREAS. AREA CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE
ALSO LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE RISES.
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Katdaddy
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Not much has changed overnight as the tropical low remains disorganized. The NHC has this area up to 80% for tropical development and we could see TS Bill before it moves onshore along the TX Coast this week. The Houston-Galveston NWS will be issuing a Flash Flood Watch this afternoon with models still showing widespread 5-7" rains with some areas receiving >10" totals. In addition, the SPC has a marginal risk of severe weather for the Middle and Upper TX Coast as well as SW LA due to the right-front quadrant of the tropical low.
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srainhoutx
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
523 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 7AM TODAY THROUGH 7AM THURSDAY...
.THERE ARE TWO PERIODS OF CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FIRST PERIOD WILL BE MID-MORNING TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THE SECOND AND MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FOR TODAY...A SIMILAR SET-UP TO
YESTERDAY WILL OCCUR WITH ONGOING TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
REGION WITH ADDITIONAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED 1-3 INCH POCKETS WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES
COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH AND
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE FROM MID-DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS A TROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 6 TO
8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLEASE NOTE THAT DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK OF THE STORM...EVEN HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
EVOLVING SITUATION.
BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-BEXAR-
COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-
DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...BOERNE...BLANCO...
SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...SAN ANTONIO...
NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...PLEASANTON...
FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE
523 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...LAVACA...
LEE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON AND WILSON.
* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
* TWO SEPARATE IMPACTFUL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN FLASH
AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING IMPACTS COULD BE POSSIBLE
MID- DAY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING FROM A LANDFALLING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
TAKE MUCH RUN-OFF BEFORE BECOMING BANK-FULL AND OVER TOPPING. IF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OR HIGHER OCCUR...LINGER RIVER
FLOODING IMPACTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR LONGER.
PLEASE USE EXTRA CARE ON LOW-WATER CROSSINGS OR IF RESIDENCE IS
NEAR A CREEK TO RIVER.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
523 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 7AM TODAY THROUGH 7AM THURSDAY...
.THERE ARE TWO PERIODS OF CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FIRST PERIOD WILL BE MID-MORNING TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THE SECOND AND MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FOR TODAY...A SIMILAR SET-UP TO
YESTERDAY WILL OCCUR WITH ONGOING TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
REGION WITH ADDITIONAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED 1-3 INCH POCKETS WITH ISOLATED 4 INCHES
COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH AND
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE FROM MID-DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS A TROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 6 TO
8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLEASE NOTE THAT DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK OF THE STORM...EVEN HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
EVOLVING SITUATION.
BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-BEXAR-
COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-
DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...BOERNE...BLANCO...
SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...SAN ANTONIO...
NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...PLEASANTON...
FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE
523 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...LAVACA...
LEE...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON AND WILSON.
* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
* TWO SEPARATE IMPACTFUL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN FLASH
AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING IMPACTS COULD BE POSSIBLE
MID- DAY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING FROM A LANDFALLING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
TAKE MUCH RUN-OFF BEFORE BECOMING BANK-FULL AND OVER TOPPING. IF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OR HIGHER OCCUR...LINGER RIVER
FLOODING IMPACTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR LONGER.
PLEASE USE EXTRA CARE ON LOW-WATER CROSSINGS OR IF RESIDENCE IS
NEAR A CREEK TO RIVER.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity