JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

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[unome]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/

thstrm outlk.gif

[srainhoutx]

06162015 1252Z recon_AF308-0402A-BILL.png

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161248Z - 161515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES THIS MORNING...RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM BILL. THE
ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL IS NEARING THE MIDDLE
TX COAST AS OF 1240Z...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NWWD TODAY
WHILE MAKING LANDFALL. MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION
HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE SERN SEMICIRCLE OF T.S. BILL -- MAINLY OVER
THE GULF WATERS. AS SUCH...INLAND PRECIPITATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD AMIDST THE BROAD NERN QUADRANT OF T.S. BILL. THIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION BETWEEN GENERALLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN BANDS...AS NWD FLUXES OF HIGH
THETA-E AIR ACCOMPANIED BY MIDDLE 70S SFC DEWPOINTS EXTEND FARTHER
INLAND WITH TIME GIVEN THE MOTION OF T.S. BILL. AS SUCH...AN OVERALL
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE RELATED TO T.S. BILL
EXISTS.

MEANWHILE...REGIONAL VWPS AND 12Z RAOBS SAMPLE THE BROAD...STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF T.S. BILL...BETWEEN
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE TN
VALLEY/PORTIONS OF THE SERN CONUS. GIVEN THE MODEST FORWARD MOTION
OF T.S. BILL...THIS WILL SUSTAIN A FAIRLY BROAD...INLAND-ADVANCING
ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. WITH AROUND 20-30
KT OF 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE VWPS/RAOBS -- LOCALLY
ENHANCED WHERE BACKED/ELY SFC WINDS EXIST ALSO BOLSTERING LOW-LEVEL
SRH -- THE RISK FOR A FEW MINI-SUPERCELL TORNADOES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS DIABATIC SFC HEATING OCCURS IN THE
MOIST-NEUTRAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED AT
SOME TIME TODAY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SUCH ISSUANCE MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. THE 12Z RAOB AT LCH
ALREADY SAMPLED AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND IT MAY TAKE VERY
LITTLE SFC HEATING FOR THE TORNADO RISK TO INCREASE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AND RELATED THETA-E DEFICITS AND
INSUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF A GREATER TORNADO
RISK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY -- ESPECIALLY IN ERN TX. AS SUCH...THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/16/2015


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Center of TS Bill nearing Port O Connor….band of heavy rainfall increasing over SE TX.

Strong winds likely next 1-2 hours Matagorda Bay region.

Galveston is sustained SE at 29 gust to 40

Buoy 35 SE Palacios gusting to 61mph

Center of TS Bill was located about 25-40 miles ESE of Port O Connor at 700am and moving toward the WNW to NW. The center will cross the coast within the next few hours.

Tidal impacts are in progress along the coast with flooding ongoing at Tiki Island/Bayou Vista and parts of Bolivar. Have passed the high tide with max values near 4.6 ft at Surfside and 3.9ft in Galveston Bay. Tides should fall slowly, but sustained onshore winds and high wave action will keep the tides high through much of the day. Water and debris are over portions of HWY 87 west of HWY 124 on Bolivar.

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[singlemom]

Would you believe UA has not cancelled our fight into IAH arriving at 4:40 pm today.....last flight 6:40, and if I change to tomorrow.... penalty. If they do cancel, we will already be heading to the airport. Grrrr.

[srainhoutx]

Nice wobble to the SW for Bill. I recall Carla did this as well back in 1961 near Matagorda Bay.

[unome]

GOES-R WRF sims - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... km_WRF-ARW

NSSL Realtime WRF model Forecasts - http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/

36-hr precip loop - http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/preciploop.html

wrf 36hr precip forecast.jpg

[ticka1]

did everyone go into work today?

[mckinne63]

did everyone go into work today?

I decided to stay home. Looks like some folks at my office went in, some stayed home. I knew if I went in I would just be watching the weather and worrying and probably wouldn't accomplish much. You can call me Nervous Nellie.

[kayci]

hey ticka! I'm at work here in Alvin, for now.... LOL

[unome]

did everyone go into work today?

our son did, his employer gathered all employees together yesterday & basically threatened "better be here & not be late" (kinder, gentler version). his ride in was looking like a normal, nasty day on 290, but I hope it isn't raining horribly for his ride home (after mandatory overtime)

that's all I'm going to say about that...

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 13:37Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2015
Storm Name: Bill (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 13:23:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°03'N 96°18'W (28.05N 96.3W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,401m (4,596ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the E (90°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 145° at 55kts (From the SE at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the E (88°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) which was observed 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the E (88°) from the flight level center at 13:09:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 60° at 6kts (From the ENE at 7mph)

[Katdaddy]

So far so good in downtown Houston but watching the radar trends. Traffic was very light coming into town on the Gulf Freeway. Perhaps I can see a tropical funnel our 2 today

[davidiowx]

Yep I am at work in Stafford. Was dry coming in. Got to work around 7:45 and started pouring 2 minutes later. Since then it has been light rains and gusty winds so far this morning.