JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Storms are beginning to develop into what will likely be the next feeder band originating along a Victoria to Montgomery/Waller and Walker Counties cluster as an approaching shortwave over Northern Mexico is moves E and moisture from Deep South Texas likely from Carlos remnant mid/upper level moisture spreads into Texas. A bit worrisome to see a slow moving cluster of thunderstorms organizing across our NW areas. We'll need to monitor this area for training storms and back building the next few hours.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0240
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL OK...EAST/SOUTHEAST TX...WEST
AR...SOUTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 180727Z - 181327Z

SUMMARY...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO CHURN NEAR THE RED
RIVER OF OK/TX WITH THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINS LINGERING.

DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TO 500MB CIRCULATION WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR THE RED RIVER OF
OK/TX THIS EARLY MORNING. A PLETHORA OF MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES
TO DRAW NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WRAP AROUND THE LOW.
.25DEG GFS AND ECMWF STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR PWS AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE FLUX ARE BASICALLY OFF THE CHARTS... 3 AND 5 TIMES ABOVE
AVG RESPECTIVELY. THIS MOISTURE RIDING ON A 40KT 850 MB JET IS
AHEAD OF A VAGUELY RESEMBLED SURFACE TROUGH TO AN ACTING SHARP
DEFORMATION REGION. BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST HI-RES/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE... EXPECT TWO CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MORE
PERSISTENT COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION RAINS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE
CENTER... WHICH COULD STILL FLARE UP BEING NOCTURNAL HRS... TO THE
NORTH AND EAST WITH A SHARP CUT OFF ZONE TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS MEANS 2 TO 4 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES IN THE NEXT 6 HRS FROM EAST CENTRAL OK INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KS/SOUTHWESTERN MO AND NORTHWESTERN AR WITH PERHAPS A
MIN OVER EASTERN OK WITH SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION. THE OTHER LOCALE
WILL BE FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN AR... AS CONDITIONS
ARE MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ALLOWING MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND
FEEDER BANDS/ZONES TO DEVELOP FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING. THIS ZONE IS
A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN TO PREDICT BUT WITHIN DEVELOPING CELLS
TRACKING NORTH OR NORTH AND EAST... EXPECT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THE LOW SIDE. THIS SIX HOUR
WINDOW REALLY KEEPS THE REGION IN THE CROSS-HAIRS AS BILL REMAINS
SEPARATED FROM THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.

MUSHER

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...LZK...OUN...SGF...
SHV...TSA...

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
243 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

TXZ176>178-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181800-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-150618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-SAN JACINTO-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...DAYTON...
EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...
LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...
MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...
PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...
RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...
TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...WHARTON...
WILLIS...WINNIE
243 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...JACKSON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...SAN JACINTO...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON

* A WESTERN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO A VERY MOIST
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS ENVIRONMENT...ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE LEFT OVER FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL..WILL
GENERATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF POCKETS OF HIGH RAINFALL THAT WILL
REAGGRAVATE REGIONAL FLOODING ISSUES. THE GROUND IS STILL WET
AND NEARLY SATURATED IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND IT WILL ONLY TAKE A
SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO CREATE RUNOFF. HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES EXCEEDING TWO INCHES WILL MORE THAN LIKELY INITIATE FLASH
FLOODING.

* ROADWAY FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT DURING THE WATCH
PERIOD. SMALL STREAM...RIVER AND BAYOU FLOODING THREAT WILL
INCREASE AS RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS UPSTREAM BASINS
DRAIN INTO THE DOWNSTREAM MAIN STEM RIVERS.

[srainhoutx]

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[srainhoutx]

20150618_0815_AUS_ir.jpg

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

TXC225-313-373-407-455-471-181130-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0155.150618T0834Z-150618T1130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
POLK TX-HOUSTON TX-TRINITY TX-MADISON TX-WALKER TX-SAN JACINTO TX-
334 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT

* AT 332 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CROCKETT...APPLE SPRINGS...TRINITY...GROVETON...LOVELADY...
RIVERSIDE...KENNARD...SEBASTOPOL...OAKHURST...WECHES...PENNINGTON
AND CENTRALIA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

TXC089-239-321-481-181515-
/O.CON.KHGX.FA.W.0008.000000T0000Z-150618T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COLORADO TX-WHARTON TX-JACKSON TX-MATAGORDA TX-
329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN WHARTON...JACKSON AND WEST CENTRAL
MATAGORDA COUNTIES...

AT 324 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. THE STRONGER CELLS
WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR. IN ADDITION
TO ONGOING CREEK AND RIVER FLOODING...STREET FLOODING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. DO NOT
DRIVE ACROSS WATER COVERED ROADS!

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... EL
CAMPO...EDNA...PALACIOS...GANADO...LA WARD...PIERCE...LOLITA...
BLESSING...CORDELE...EGYPT...LAKE TEXANA DAM...MORALES...DANEVANG...
LOUISE...GARWOOD...VANDERBILT...MIDFIELD AND NADA.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 AM CDT

* AT 350 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
APPLE SPRINGS...TRINITY...GROVETON...LOVELADY...RIVERSIDE...
KENNARD...SEBASTOPOL...WECHES...PENNINGTON...CENTRALIA AND
OAKHURST.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED
AREA.

[srainhoutx]

HGX_0.png

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
336 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

TXC149-181130-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0199.150618T0836Z-150618T1130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FAYETTE TX-
336 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT

* AT 334 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A SCHULENBURG TO LA GRANGE TO CARMINE
LINE. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
RECENT RAINS WILL MAKE RUNOFF MORE RAPID.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LA GRANGE...SCHULENBURG...FAYETTEVILLE...ROUND TOP...CARMINE...
HOLMAN...WALHALLA...HIGH HILL...SWISS ALP...WINEDALE...WARRENTON...
DUBINA...ELLINGER...REK HILL...WALDECK...AMMANNSVILLE...WILLOW
SPRINGS...RUTERSVILLE AND MULLINS PRAIRIE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
418 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT...

.DISCUSSION...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CHURNS UP ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...BILL`S ASSOCIATED FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO TRAIL
BACK OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ONE TO THREE INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL
RATES WITHIN THESE SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTATED BANDS ARE
PROMPTING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AS IT WILL TAKE NO MORE THAN ONE OR
TWO INCH PER HOUR RATES TO RE-AGGRAVATE REGIONAL FLOODING OF ROADWAYS
...LOW LYING AREAS...LOCAL WATERSHED RIVERS AND THEIR SURROUNDING
TRIBUTARIES. A WESTERN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO A VERY
MOIST SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS ENVIRONMENT (GT 2 INCH PWATS)...ALONG
WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE LEFT OVER FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BILL...HAS (RE)GENERATED THIS HIGH RAINFALL-PRODUCING
BANDING. THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA`S PRESENCE OF A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING LLJ WILL FOCUS THE TODAY`S HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH ALL
COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE GREATER RUN-OFF PER RECENTLY SATURATED
SOILS...THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF JACKSON AND WHARTON...ALONG
WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA COUNTIES OF LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS ARE AT
THE GREATEST RISK OF RETURN FLOODING FROM VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
DUE TO PRECEDENT GREATER THAN 7 INCH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS SINCE
YESTERDAY.

UPPER RIDGING NEVER DOES COMPLETELY ANCHOR ITSELF BACK OVER TEXAS
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...RATHER LOWER NORTHERN MEXICO HEIGHTS
(INVERTED TROUGHING) MAY APPROACH THE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS KEEPS MODEST POPS FOR MORE SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGING EXPANDS
EASTWARD BUT IT`S SOUTHEASTERN UNDERBELLY REMAINS WEAK...IT WILL
BE THIS GEO-HGT WEAKNESS CHANNEL THAT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBS ALIVE IN THE EXTENDED. COLUMN MOISTURE AND
OVERALL DAY-TO-DAY INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH EACH SUBSEQUENT
DAY THROUGH DAY 7 TO MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF RETURNING -TSRA. LESS
RAINFALL BY MID TO LATE PERIOD WILL LIFT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BY
A FEW DEGREES...UPPER 80S GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AVERAGE LOWER
90S TO END PERIOD / LOW TO MID 70 MINIMUMS UNDER PARTIAL TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. 31

[nuby3]

wondering if the sea breeze will kick up and interact

[Katdaddy]

Flash Flood Watch extended until 1PM this afternoon across SE TX with ongoing Flash Flood Warnings NW and N of Houston as Bill's moisture feed continues to dump heavy tropical rains.

[Kludge]

We've been trained-on big time for the last 2 nights. 4.5" Tuesday, 4.3" last night. But since this was the first real rain of June, the area's handled it pretty well.

[nuby3]

just had a good crack of thunder in central Montgomery.

[tireman4]

HGX AFD

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181154
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
654 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

.AVIATION...
BAND OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY CENTERED FROM
COLUMBUS-HUNTSVILLE-TRINITY LOOKS LIKE IT`LL MAINLY BYPASS MOST
METRO HUBS THIS MORNING...THOUGH COULD STILL SEE A FEW SOUTHERN
STRAGGLERS NEARBY. NORTH OF IAH...PERIODS OF PRECIP (SOME HEAVY)
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH COMBO OF CONDITIONS
RANGING FROM VFR IN THE LIGHTEST TO IFR IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.
FURTHER S...ANTICIPATE CIGS TO LIFT INTO VFR TERRITORY IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE - IT COULD BE WORTH
WATCHING FOR SCT DEVELOPMENT ALONG 1-10/HWY59 CORRIDOR LATER IN
AFTN IF ANY PEAKS OF SUN SHOW BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. NOT MENTIONING
ANYTHING IN THE TAFS ATTM BUT SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS HINTING AT
SUCH A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...KNOCK ON WOOD...LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AS
WINDS DIMINISH. 47

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVSY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR FREQUENT 20-30MPH GUSTS
IN THE WATERS BUT LOOKS LIKE THAT`LL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY THE
NEXT MARINE UPDATE AS WINDS/SEAS BEGIN SUBSIDING. WATER LEVELS
STILL 1-2FT ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEY WILL ALSO START TRENDING
DOWNWARD ONCE WINDS/SEAS DO THE SAME. LIGHT/MODERATE OHSHORE FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 47

&&

[nuby3]

"IT COULD BE WORTH WATCHING FOR SCT DEVELOPMENT ALONG 1-10/HWY59 CORRIDOR LATER IN AFTN IF ANY PEAKS OF SUN SHOW BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. NOT MENTIONING ANYTHING IN THE TAFS ATTM BUT SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS HINTING AT SUCH A POSSIBILITY"

exactly what I was thinking, already starting to take place

[jasons2k]

2.46" here total the last 3 days.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0241
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
947 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF KS, MO, OK, AR, TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 181346Z - 181946Z

SUMMARY...HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1" NEAR BILL'S CORE AND UP TO 3"
WITHIN ITS INFLOW BAND(S) WOULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER
SATURATED SOILS.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OK AT 8-9 KTS, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BY THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE. CORE RAINFALL RATES ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF
0.25-.5" AN HOUR, WHICH IS EXCESSIVE OVER THE SATURATED SOILS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL OK PER THE 06Z FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. WHILE
THE OVERNIGHT INFLOW BAND ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TX AND NORTHWEST LA
FADES, A NEW BAND IS FORMING JUST TO ITS NORTHWEST NEAR THE
ARKLATEX WHICH IS TAPPING MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE AREA ARE 2.1-2.6" PER GPS
INFORMATION. INFLOW AT 850 HPA REMAINS 25-45 KTS PER VAD WIND
PROFILES, JUST ABOVE THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND IN THIS AREA.

DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEW INFLOW
BAND, AND ALONG BILL'S TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH, TO STRENGTHEN
TODAY, BRINGING HOURLY RAIN RATES BACK INTO THE 2-3" RANGE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT 2-4"
LOCAL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BAND, THOUGH IT SHOWS WILD
VARIATION ON WHERE THE INFLOW BAND SETS UP. BELIEVE RADAR IMAGERY
AND THE CAPE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE SURFACE ANALYSIS ARE REVEALING
WHERE BANDING WOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z NMMB AND 00Z SPCWRF. THE 06Z SSEO
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES INDICATE THAT THE RAIN RATES WITHIN
BANDING SHOULD INCREASE MOST AFTER 18Z. FOR THE CORE RAINFALL, IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING
INTO KS WILL BE A FACTOR FOR INCREASING RAIN RATES -- IF SO, SUCH
AN IMPACT REMAINS EIGHT HOURS AWAY. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 2-4" BETWEEN EASTERN OK AND SOUTHWEST MO WITH BILL'S
CORE. SATURATED SOILS COMBINED WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL SHOULD
ALLOW FOR FLASH FLOODING.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...EAX...FWD...HGX...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...
TOP...TSA...

[srainhoutx]

Report: Several Farm to Market roads in Trinity County are flooded.